2019-04-21 10:07:54 Sun ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism. In accordance with the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum sustainable employment, most central banks seek to solve the dynamic consistency problem on the basis of a key desire to insulate monetary policy decisions from political influence.
A landmark empirical study of cross-country comparisons by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers confirms that countries with better central bank independence experience lower inflation without suffering any real economic output or labor force penalty. An independent central bank can enhance fiscal discipline by reducing the relative likelihood of fiscal dominance and monetization of perennial budget deficits.
Historical experience and economic theory teach us an informative lesson. When monetary policy is subject to political control, people expect dovish expansionary interest rate adjustments and so anticipate higher wages and prices in response. The undesirable economic outcome is stagflation (or the worst-case scenario of both high inflation and high unemployment). It can cost prohibitive welfare losses for the central bank to bring down inflation with subsequent interest rate hikes. Key credible apolitical monetary policy decisions would thus promote price stability with minimal real impact on economic growth, employment, and capital investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-01-09 07:33:00 Wednesday ET
Apple revises down its global sales revenue estimate to $83 billion due to subpar smartphone sales in China. Apple CEO Tim Cook points out the fact that he
2018-10-23 12:36:00 Tuesday ET
Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker releases his memoir, talks about American public governance, and worries about plutocracy in America. Volcker suggests that pu
2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thursday ET
U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S.
2018-03-02 12:34:00 Friday ET
White House top economic advisor Gary Cohn resigns due to his opposition to President Trump's recent protectionist decision on steel and aluminum tariff
2018-10-09 08:40:00 Tuesday ET
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) appoints Harvard professor Gita Gopinath as its chief economist. Gopinath follows her PhD advisor and trailblazer Kenn
2019-06-17 11:25:00 Monday ET
To secure better economic arrangements with European Union, Jeremy Corbyn encourages Labour legislators to back a second referendum on Brexit. In recent tim