2019-04-21 10:07:54 Sun ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism. In accordance with the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum sustainable employment, most central banks seek to solve the dynamic consistency problem on the basis of a key desire to insulate monetary policy decisions from political influence.
A landmark empirical study of cross-country comparisons by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers confirms that countries with better central bank independence experience lower inflation without suffering any real economic output or labor force penalty. An independent central bank can enhance fiscal discipline by reducing the relative likelihood of fiscal dominance and monetization of perennial budget deficits.
Historical experience and economic theory teach us an informative lesson. When monetary policy is subject to political control, people expect dovish expansionary interest rate adjustments and so anticipate higher wages and prices in response. The undesirable economic outcome is stagflation (or the worst-case scenario of both high inflation and high unemployment). It can cost prohibitive welfare losses for the central bank to bring down inflation with subsequent interest rate hikes. Key credible apolitical monetary policy decisions would thus promote price stability with minimal real impact on economic growth, employment, and capital investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2021-08-01 07:26:00 Sunday ET
The Biden administration launches economic reforms in fiscal and monetary stimulus, global trade, finance, and technology. President Joe Biden proposes s
2022-02-25 00:00:00 Friday ET
Empirical tests of multi-factor models for asset return prediction The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), and Bla
2018-06-14 10:35:00 Thursday ET
The Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike may lead to the next economic recession as credit supply growth ebbs and flows through the business cyc
2017-12-11 08:42:00 Monday ET
Fed Chair Janet Yellen says the current high stock market valuation does not mean overvaluation. A stock market quick fire sale would pose minimal risk to t
2022-04-05 17:39:00 Tuesday ET
Corporate diversification theory and evidence A recent strand of corporate diversification literature spans at least three generations. The first generat
2017-04-13 10:42:00 Thursday ET
President Donald Trump unveils the dramatic *tax overhaul proposal*. Through this tax plan, Trump replaces the current 7 income tax brackets with 3 leane