American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth.

Chanel Holden

2019-11-19 09:33:00 Tue ET

American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth. Despite a sharp slowdown in U.S. services and utilities, non-farm payrolls increase by 135,000-to-145,000 jobs on average per month in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. As of 2019Q4, The Economist and Reuters forecast higher U.S. non-farm payrolls in the next few quarters. As the U.S. unemployment rate tends to rise ahead of an economic recession, the recent decline in American unemployment pushes out the timeline for any potential recession into late-2020.

U.S. core inflation remain below the 2% target, and wage growth gradually declines from 3.2% to 2.9% per year. The U.S. labor market grows sustainably in the early resolution of uncertainty around the Sino-American trade conflict, Federal Reserve monetary policy reversal, Treasury fiscal stimulus, and asset price normalization for oil, gold, and the greenback etc. Several stock market analysts and investment bankers expect the U.S. economy to grow at 2%-3% per annum in 2019-2020. The reasonable real GDP momentum accords with the main stock market investment thesis that the Trump tax cuts help finance the current economic boom. U.S. fiscal stimulus hence contributes to greater economic growth, domestic job creation, and capital investment.

 


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