Library

Home > Library > Stock market alphas help predict macroeconomic innovations.

Stock market alphas help predict macroeconomic innovations.

Author Andy Yeh Alpha

This research article delves into mutual causation between stock market alphas and macroeconomic innovations. The online appendix provides complete econometric details and algorithms for empirical analysis. This empirical analysis includes the recursive multivariate filtration of Fama-French dynamic conditional alphas, ARMA-GARCH representation of both dynamic conditional alphas and betas, and vector autoregression analysis of mutual causation between alpha spreads and macro surprises. 

Description:

We extract dynamic conditional factor premiums from the Fama-French factor model and find that most anomalies disappear after we account for time variation in these premiums. New vector autoregression evidence shows that mutual causation between dynamic conditional alphas and macroeconomic surprises serves as a core qualifying condition for fundamental factor selection. This economic insight is an incremental step toward drawing a distinction between rational risk and behavioral mispricing models. As dynamic conditional alphas often reveal the marginal investor’s fundamental news and expectations about the cross-section of average asset returns, our economic insight helps enrich macroeconomic asset return prediction.

 

This research article delves into mutual causation between stock market alphas and macroeconomic innovations. The online appendix provides complete econometric details and algorithms for empirical analysis. This empirical analysis includes the recursive multivariate filtration of Fama-French dynamic conditional alphas, ARMA-GARCH representation of both dynamic conditional alphas and betas, and vector autoregression analysis of mutual causation between alpha spreads and macro surprises. 

 

This analytic ebook cannot constitute any form of financial advice, analyst opinion, recommendation, or endorsement. We refrain from engaging in financial advisory services, and we seek to offer our analytic insights into the latest economic trends, stock market topics, investment memes, and other financial issues. Our proprietary alpha investment algorithmic system helps enrich our AYA fintech network platform as a new social community for stock market investors: https://ayafintech.network.

 

We share and circulate these informative posts and essays with hyperlinks through our blogs, podcasts, emails, social media channels, and patent specifications. Our goal is to help promote better financial literacy, inclusion, and freedom of the global general public. While we make a conscious effort to optimize our global reach, this optimization retains our current focus on the American stock market.


This ebook shares new economic insights, investment memes, and stock portfolio strategies through both blog posts and patent specifications on our AYA fintech network platform. AYA fintech network platform is every investor's social toolkit for profitable investment management. We can help empower stock market investors through technology, education, and social integration.

 

Blog+More

Blackrock asset research director Andrew Ang shares his economic insights into fundamental factors for global asset management.

Apple Boston

2019-07-29 11:33:00 Monday ET

Blackrock asset research director Andrew Ang shares his economic insights into fundamental factors for global asset management.

Blackrock asset research director Andrew Ang shares his economic insights into fundamental factors for global asset management. As Ang indicates in an inter

+See More

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market issues and economic trends for better and wiser investment decisions.

Amy Hamilton

2019-06-30 12:37:00 Sunday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market issues and economic trends for better and wiser investment decisions.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube June 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of June 2019: (1) Federal Reserve h

+See More

Senator Elizabeth Warren introduces her Accountable Capitalism Act that would require corporations to consider stakeholder interests.

Fiona Sydney

2018-08-15 14:40:00 Wednesday ET

Senator Elizabeth Warren introduces her Accountable Capitalism Act that would require corporations to consider stakeholder interests.

Senator Elizabeth Warren advocates the alternative view that most U.S. trade deals serve corporate interests over workers, customers, and suppliers etc. She

+See More

Top money managers George Soros and Warren Buffett reveal their current stock and bond positions.

Dan Rochefort

2018-05-10 07:37:00 Thursday ET

Top money managers George Soros and Warren Buffett reveal their current stock and bond positions.

Top money managers George Soros and Warren Buffett reveal their current stock and bond positions in their recent corporate disclosures as of mid-2018. Georg

+See More

Thomas Piketty empirically shows that the top 1% cohort rakes in 20%+ of U.S. national income.

Daisy Harvey

2018-09-01 07:34:00 Saturday ET

Thomas Piketty empirically shows that the top 1% cohort rakes in 20%+ of U.S. national income.

As the French economist who studies global economic inequality in his recent book *Capital in the New Century*, Thomas Piketty co-authors with John Bates Cl

+See More

U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson encounters Brexit defeat during his new premiership.

Chanel Holden

2019-10-15 09:13:00 Tuesday ET

U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson encounters Brexit defeat during his new premiership.

U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson encounters defeat during his new premiership. The first major vote would pave the path of least resistance to passing a no

+See More