Library

Home > Library > Stock market alphas help predict macroeconomic innovations.

Stock market alphas help predict macroeconomic innovations.

Author Andy Yeh Alpha

This research article delves into mutual causation between stock market alphas and macroeconomic innovations. The online appendix provides complete econometric details and algorithms for empirical analysis. This empirical analysis includes the recursive multivariate filtration of Fama-French dynamic conditional alphas, ARMA-GARCH representation of both dynamic conditional alphas and betas, and vector autoregression analysis of mutual causation between alpha spreads and macro surprises. 

Description:

We extract dynamic conditional factor premiums from the Fama-French factor model and find that most anomalies disappear after we account for time variation in these premiums. New vector autoregression evidence shows that mutual causation between dynamic conditional alphas and macroeconomic surprises serves as a core qualifying condition for fundamental factor selection. This economic insight is an incremental step toward drawing a distinction between rational risk and behavioral mispricing models. As dynamic conditional alphas often reveal the marginal investor’s fundamental news and expectations about the cross-section of average asset returns, our economic insight helps enrich macroeconomic asset return prediction.

 

This research article delves into mutual causation between stock market alphas and macroeconomic innovations. The online appendix provides complete econometric details and algorithms for empirical analysis. This empirical analysis includes the recursive multivariate filtration of Fama-French dynamic conditional alphas, ARMA-GARCH representation of both dynamic conditional alphas and betas, and vector autoregression analysis of mutual causation between alpha spreads and macro surprises. 

 

This analytic ebook cannot constitute any form of financial advice, analyst opinion, recommendation, or endorsement. We refrain from engaging in financial advisory services, and we seek to offer our analytic insights into the latest economic trends, stock market topics, investment memes, and other financial issues. Our proprietary alpha investment algorithmic system helps enrich our AYA fintech network platform as a new social community for stock market investors: https://ayafintech.network.

 

We share and circulate these informative posts and essays with hyperlinks through our blogs, podcasts, emails, social media channels, and patent specifications. Our goal is to help promote better financial literacy, inclusion, and freedom of the global general public. While we make a conscious effort to optimize our global reach, this optimization retains our current focus on the American stock market.


This ebook shares new economic insights, investment memes, and stock portfolio strategies through both blog posts and patent specifications on our AYA fintech network platform. AYA fintech network platform is every investor's social toolkit for profitable investment management. We can help empower stock market investors through technology, education, and social integration.

 

Blog+More

Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld suggest that relatively successful ethnic groups exhibit common cultural traits in America.

Laura Hermes

2023-05-21 12:26:00 Sunday ET

Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld suggest that relatively successful ethnic groups exhibit common cultural traits in America.

Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld suggest that relatively successful ethnic groups exhibit common cultural traits in America. Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld (2015)

+See More

Stock Synopsis: Life insurers emphasize profit margins over sales growth rates.

Fiona Sydney

2024-05-27 03:23:34 Monday ET

Stock Synopsis: Life insurers emphasize profit margins over sales growth rates.

Stock Synopsis: Life insurers emphasize profit margins over sales growth rates. We review and analyze the recent market share data in the U.S. life insur

+See More

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation.

Monica McNeil

2020-11-17 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation.

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation. Alan Weiss (2016)

+See More

MIT professor and co-author Daron Acemoglu suggests that economic prosperity comes from high-wage job creation.

Fiona Sydney

2019-05-19 19:31:00 Sunday ET

MIT professor and co-author Daron Acemoglu suggests that economic prosperity comes from high-wage job creation.

MIT professor and co-author Daron Acemoglu suggests that economic prosperity comes from high-wage job creation. Progressive tax redistribution cannot achiev

+See More

Goldman Sachs takes a $5 billion net income hit that results from its offshore cash repatriation under the Trump tax law.

Charlene Vos

2018-01-02 12:39:00 Tuesday ET

Goldman Sachs takes a $5 billion net income hit that results from its offshore cash repatriation under the Trump tax law.

Goldman Sachs takes a $5 billion net income hit that results from its offshore cash repatriation under the new Trump tax law. This income hit reflects 10%-1

+See More

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon views wealth inequality as a major economic problem in America.

Monica McNeil

2019-12-19 14:43:00 Thursday ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon views wealth inequality as a major economic problem in America.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon views wealth inequality as a major economic problem in America. Dimon now warns that the rich Americans have been getting wea

+See More