2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET
stock market gold oil stock return s&p 500 asset market stabilization asset price fluctuations stocks bonds currencies commodities funds term spreads credit spreads fair value spreads asset investments
Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.
From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-01-12 07:37:00 Friday ET
The Economist delves into the modern perils of tech titans such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google. These key tech titans often receive plaudits for mak
2018-07-17 08:35:00 Tuesday ET
Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner (former Treasury heads) and Ben Bernanke (former Fed chairman) warn that people seem to have forgotten the lessons of the
2019-03-01 13:36:00 Friday ET
Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery. This uncertainty arises from Sino-U.S. trade tension, Brexit fallout, monetary policy nor
2023-10-21 11:32:00 Saturday ET
Walter Scheidel indicates that persistent European fragmentation after the collapse of the Roman Empire leads to modern economic growth and development.
2019-02-07 07:25:00 Thursday ET
President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism. The Trump administration seems to prefer bilateral negotiat
2019-03-15 13:36:00 Friday ET
CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends both Caterpillar and Home Depot as the U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comment