Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Sat ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark. With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per year. This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000. From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share. The equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio thus hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x. This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x. Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem. If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.

From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million users.

Peter Prince

2018-10-19 13:37:00 Friday ET

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million users.

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million active users. As PayPal beats the revenue and profit expectations o

+See More

AYA fintech finbuzz analytic report on the global macro economic outlook Summer-Fall 2019

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-08-07 08:32:00 Wednesday ET

AYA fintech finbuzz analytic report on the global macro economic outlook Summer-Fall 2019

Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the current global economic outlook. As of Summer-Fall 2019, the current analytic report focuses o

+See More

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan expects the U.S. economy to grow at 2.2%-2.5% in 2019-2020.

Becky Berkman

2019-06-11 12:33:00 Tuesday ET

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan expects the U.S. economy to grow at 2.2%-2.5% in 2019-2020.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan expects the U.S. economy to grow at 2.2%-2.5% in 2019-2020 as inflation rises a bit. In an interview wit

+See More

Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy.

Daphne Basel

2019-08-28 14:46:00 Wednesday ET

Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy.

Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy. Cohen fin

+See More

Federal Reserve institutes the third interest rate cut with a rare pause signal.

Daisy Harvey

2019-12-10 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

Federal Reserve institutes the third interest rate cut with a rare pause signal.

Federal Reserve institutes the third interest rate cut with a rare pause signal. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduces the benchmark interest rat

+See More

McKinsey Global Institute analyzes 315 U.S. cities in terms of how tech automation affects their workers in the next 10 years.

Dan Rochefort

2019-08-10 21:44:00 Saturday ET

McKinsey Global Institute analyzes 315 U.S. cities in terms of how tech automation affects their workers in the next 10 years.

McKinsey Global Institute analyzes 315 U.S. cities and 3,000 counties in terms of how tech automation affects their workers in the next 5 to 10 years. This

+See More