U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath indicates that competitive currency devaluation may be an ineffective solution to improving export prospects.

Fiona Sydney

2019-10-09 16:46:00 Wednesday ET

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath indicates that competitive currency devaluation may be an ineffective solution to improving export prospects.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath indicates that competitive currency devaluation may be an ineffective solution to improving export prospects. In the form

+See More

Several feasible near-term reforms can substantially narrow the scope for global tax avoidance by closing information loopholes.

Apple Boston

2023-03-14 16:43:00 Tuesday ET

Several feasible near-term reforms can substantially narrow the scope for global tax avoidance by closing information loopholes.

Several feasible near-term reforms can substantially narrow the scope for global tax avoidance by closing information loopholes. Thomas Pogge and Krishen

+See More

Fed Chair Janet Yellen says the current high stock market valuation does not mean overvaluation.

Jonah Whanau

2017-12-11 08:42:00 Monday ET

 Fed Chair Janet Yellen says the current high stock market valuation does not mean overvaluation.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen says the current high stock market valuation does not mean overvaluation. A stock market quick fire sale would pose minimal risk to t

+See More

Stock Synopsis: Video games continue to take both screen time and monetization from many other forms of entertainment.

Becky Berkman

2024-10-14 11:33:00 Monday ET

Stock Synopsis: Video games continue to take both screen time and monetization from many other forms of entertainment.

Stock Synopsis: Video games continue to take both screen time and monetization from many other forms of entertainment. We are broadly positive about the

+See More

Platforms benefit from positive network effects, scale economies, and information cascades.

Rose Prince

2019-07-25 16:42:00 Thursday ET

Platforms benefit from positive network effects, scale economies, and information cascades.

Platforms benefit from positive network effects, scale economies, and information cascades. There are at least 2 major types of highly valuable platforms: i

+See More

Apple unveils 3 iPhone 11 models with new original video services and stars such as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon.

Joseph Corr

2019-10-13 16:22:00 Sunday ET

Apple unveils 3 iPhone 11 models with new original video services and stars such as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon.

Apple unveils 3 iPhone 11 models with new original video services and stars such as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon. Apple releases t

+See More