The OECD projects global growth to decline from 3.2% to 2.9% in the current fiscal year 2019-2020.

Rose Prince

2019-10-29 13:36:00 Tue ET

The OECD projects global growth to decline from 3.2% to 2.9% in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. This global economic growth projection represents the slowest in a decade amid substantial economic policy uncertainty due to Sino-American trade conflict resolution, Brexit, and geopolitical risks and military confrontations in East Asia and some middle east countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia etc. A major deterioration in global economic prognosis echoes similar concerns that monetary policymakers share in the period from the Jackson Hole summit to the recent U.S. FOMC press release.

As most central banks institute dovish interest rate cuts worldwide, monetary policy institutions may lack the important key levers and instruments to cope with the next global economic recession. As a Paris institution, the OECD further warns that a no-deal Brexit would likely push the U.K. economy into an economic recession due to both trade retrenchment and foreign capital exodus. Several OECD countries need to introduce fiscal stimulus from aggressive tax credits to fresh infrastructure expenditures in order to revive their economic prospects. These global economic developments can cause adverse ripple effects on exchange rate stabilization and asset price normalization for gold, oil, and other commodities.

 


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