2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.
Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.
Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.
Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-11-01 12:31:00 Friday ET

Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father. This advice reminds her that money just cannot buy happiness. As the eldest of the Kardash
2020-04-17 07:23:00 Friday ET

Clayton Christensen defines and delves into the core dilemma of corporate innovation with sustainable and disruptive advances. Clayton Christensen (2000)
2019-10-13 16:22:00 Sunday ET

Apple unveils 3 iPhone 11 models with new original video services and stars such as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon. Apple releases t
2019-05-17 15:24:00 Friday ET

A Harvard MBA graduate Camilo Maldonado shares several life lessons and wise insights into personal finance. People can leverage stock market investments an
2025-07-12 11:35:00 Saturday ET

Mitch Anthony explains why it is now more important for top sales leaders to apply social skills and emotional competences to fulfill customer needs, wants,
2026-02-28 10:29:00 Saturday ET

AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools for stock market investors. As of March 2026, we have up