2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.
Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.
Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.
Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-09-30 07:33:00 Monday ET

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube September 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of September 2019: (1) Former
2018-09-03 09:31:00 Monday ET

Amazon follows Apple to become the second American public corporation to hit $1 trillion stock market valuation. Amazon's founder and chairman Jeff Bezo
2017-03-15 08:46:00 Wednesday ET

The heuristic rule of *accumulative advantage* suggests that a small fraction of the population enjoys a large proportion of both capital and wealth creatio
2019-04-30 07:15:00 Tuesday ET

Through our AYA fintech network platform, we share numerous insightful posts on personal finance, stock investment, and wealth management. Our AYA finte
2027-04-30 12:31:00 Friday ET

In recent years, the current AI-driven stock market rally may or may not turn out to be another major asset bubble in global human history. For the pract
2016-11-08 00:00:00 Tuesday ET

Donald Trump defies the odds to become the new U.S. president. He wants to make America great again. He seeks to repeal Obamacare. He has zero tole