U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The semiconductor microchip demand-supply imbalance remains severe for American big tech.

Amy Hamilton

2022-05-30 09:32:00 Monday ET

The semiconductor microchip demand-supply imbalance remains severe for American big tech.

The new semiconductor microchip demand-supply imbalance remains quite severe for the U.S. tech and auto industries.  Our current fundamental macro a

+See More

Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro sees no good reasons for the recent sudden reversal of U.S. monetary policy normalization.

Laura Hermes

2019-09-09 20:38:00 Monday ET

Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro sees no good reasons for the recent sudden reversal of U.S. monetary policy normalization.

Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro sees no good reasons for the recent sudden reversal of U.S. monetary policy normalization. As Federal Reserve Ch

+See More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024.

Dan Rochefort

2024-02-04 08:28:00 Sunday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024. Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the ma

+See More

It may be illegal for institutional investors to buy-and-hold large equity stakes in a less competitive industry with high market concentration.

Olivia London

2017-11-27 07:39:00 Monday ET

It may be illegal for institutional investors to buy-and-hold large equity stakes in a less competitive industry with high market concentration.

Is it anti-competitive and illegal for passive indexers and mutual funds to place large stock bets in specific industries with high market concentration? Ha

+See More

Berkeley professor and economist Barry Eichengreen reconciles the nominal and real interest rates to argue in favor of greater fiscal deficits.

Joseph Corr

2019-05-23 10:33:00 Thursday ET

Berkeley professor and economist Barry Eichengreen reconciles the nominal and real interest rates to argue in favor of greater fiscal deficits.

Berkeley professor and economist Barry Eichengreen reconciles the nominal and real interest rates to argue in favor of greater fiscal deficits. French econo

+See More

Ford and Baidu team up to test autonomous cars in China.

Jonah Whanau

2018-11-01 08:36:00 Thursday ET

Ford and Baidu team up to test autonomous cars in China.

Ford and Baidu team up to test autonomous cars in China. For the next few years, Ford and Baidu plan to collaborate on the car design and user acceptance te

+See More