U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The Economist interviews President Trump and spots the keyword *reciprocity* from trade to taxation.

Amy Hamilton

2017-07-01 08:40:00 Saturday ET

The Economist interviews President Trump and spots the keyword *reciprocity* from trade to taxation.

The Economist interviews President Donald Trump and spots the keyword *reciprocity* in many aspects of Trumponomics from trade and taxation to infrastructur

+See More

Corporate diversification theory and evidence

James Campbell

2022-04-05 17:39:00 Tuesday ET

Corporate diversification theory and evidence

Corporate diversification theory and evidence A recent strand of corporate diversification literature spans at least three generations. The first generat

+See More

Michael Bloomberg criticizes that the Trump administration's tax reform is a trillion dollar blunder.

Fiona Sydney

2017-12-09 08:37:00 Saturday ET

Michael Bloomberg criticizes that the Trump administration's tax reform is a trillion dollar blunder.

Michael Bloomberg, former NYC mayor and media entrepreneur, criticizes that the Trump administration's tax reform is a trillion dollar blunder because i

+See More

Former basketball star Shaq O'Neal learns a major money lesson from Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos.

Laura Hermes

2019-08-06 07:28:00 Tuesday ET

Former basketball star Shaq O'Neal learns a major money lesson from Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos.

Former basketball star Shaq O'Neal has almost quadrupled his net worth once he learns and applies an ingenious investment strategy from Amazon Founder J

+See More

After its iPhone X launch, Apple reports its highest quarterly revenue over $80 billion in the tech titan's 41-year history.

Amy Hamilton

2018-01-25 08:32:00 Thursday ET

After its iPhone X launch, Apple reports its highest quarterly revenue over $80 billion in the tech titan's 41-year history.

After its flagship iPhone X launch, Apple reports its highest quarterly sales revenue over $80 billion in the tech titan's 41-year history. Apple expect

+See More

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history.

Jacob Miramar

2019-01-10 17:31:00 Thursday ET

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history.

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history. The resultant biopharma goliath would be

+See More