U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Palantir (U.S. stock symbol: $PLTR).

Olivia London

2025-10-04 13:37:00 Saturday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Palantir (U.S. stock symbol: $PLTR).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of T-Mobile (U.S. stock symbol: $TMUS).

James Campbell

2025-10-06 10:27:00 Monday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of T-Mobile (U.S. stock symbol: $TMUS).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

American exceptionalism often turns out to be the heuristic rule of thumb for better economic growth, low and stable inflation, full employment, and macro-financial stability.

Apple Boston

2026-07-01 11:29:00 Wednesday ET

American exceptionalism often turns out to be the heuristic rule of thumb for better economic growth, low and stable inflation, full employment, and macro-financial stability.

In recent years, higher American economic growth has been impressive both by historical standards and in comparison to the rest of the world. American excep

+See More

Many billionaires choose to live below their means with frugal habits and lifestyles.

Chanel Holden

2019-12-04 14:35:00 Wednesday ET

Many billionaires choose to live below their means with frugal habits and lifestyles.

Many billionaires choose to live below their means with frugal habits and lifestyles. Those people who consistently commit to saving more, spending less, an

+See More

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation.

Rose Prince

2018-06-21 10:42:00 Thursday ET

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation.

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation. European Union retaliator

+See More

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million users.

Peter Prince

2018-10-19 13:37:00 Friday ET

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million users.

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million active users. As PayPal beats the revenue and profit expectations o

+See More