U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism.

Jonah Whanau

2019-04-21 10:07:54 Sunday ET

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism.

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism. In accordance with the dual mandate of

+See More

State, society, and the narrow corridor to liberty

Joseph Corr

2023-09-28 08:26:00 Thursday ET

State, society, and the narrow corridor to liberty

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show a constant economic tussle between society and the state in the hot pursuit of liberty. Daron Acemoglu and James R

+See More

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation.

Rose Prince

2018-06-21 10:42:00 Thursday ET

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation.

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation. European Union retaliator

+See More

Peter Thiel shares his money views of President Trump, Facebook, Bitcoin, global finance, and trade.

Apple Boston

2018-03-05 07:34:00 Monday ET

Peter Thiel shares his money views of President Trump, Facebook, Bitcoin, global finance, and trade.

Peter Thiel shares his money views of President Trump, Facebook, Bitcoin, global finance, and trade etc. As an early technology adopter, Thiel invests in Fa

+See More

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.

Laura Hermes

2019-03-09 12:43:00 Saturday ET

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019. This tech unicorn allows users to pin-and-browse images through its social media app and website. Pintere

+See More

American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth.

Chanel Holden

2019-11-19 09:33:00 Tuesday ET

American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth.

American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth. Despite a sharp slowdown in U.S. services and utilities

+See More