U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Zillow share price plunges 20% year-to-date as Redfin and Trulia also experience an economic slowdown in the real estate market.

Daisy Harvey

2018-11-17 09:33:00 Saturday ET

Zillow share price plunges 20% year-to-date as Redfin and Trulia also experience an economic slowdown in the real estate market.

Zillow share price plunges 20% year-to-date as its competitors Redfin and Trulia also experience an economic slowdown in the real estate market. The real es

+See More

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Friday ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predict

+See More

Tech unicorns blitzscale business niches for better scale economies from Uber and Lyft to Pinterest, Slack, and Zoom.

Dan Rochefort

2019-05-03 11:29:00 Friday ET

Tech unicorns blitzscale business niches for better scale economies from Uber and Lyft to Pinterest, Slack, and Zoom.

Key tech unicorns blitzscale business niches for better scale economies from Uber and Lyft to Pinterest, Slack, and Zoom. LinkedIn cofounder and serial entr

+See More

Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery.

Jonah Whanau

2019-03-01 13:36:00 Friday ET

Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery.

Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery. This uncertainty arises from Sino-U.S. trade tension, Brexit fallout, monetary policy nor

+See More

Conservative Party wins the British parliamentary majority in the general election with hefty British pound appreciation.

Jonah Whanau

2020-01-08 08:25:00 Wednesday ET

Conservative Party wins the British parliamentary majority in the general election with hefty British pound appreciation.

Conservative Party wins the British parliamentary majority in the general election with hefty British pound appreciation. In response to this general electi

+See More

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin welcomes a weak U.S. dollar amid pervasive fears of an open trade war between America and China.

James Campbell

2018-01-15 07:35:00 Monday ET

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin welcomes a weak U.S. dollar amid pervasive fears of an open trade war between America and China.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin welcomes a weak U.S. dollar amid pervasive fears of an open trade war between America and China. At the World Economic For

+See More