U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics, economic trends, and personal finance inspirations as of November 2019.

Daphne Basel

2019-11-26 11:30:00 Tuesday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics, economic trends, and personal finance inspirations as of November 2019.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube November 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of November 2019: (1) The Trump adm

+See More

President Trump warns Google, Facebook, and Twitter that these tech titans now tread on troublesome territory.

Daphne Basel

2018-08-25 12:33:00 Saturday ET

President Trump warns Google, Facebook, and Twitter that these tech titans now tread on troublesome territory.

President Trump warns Google, Facebook, and Twitter that these tech titans now tread on troublesome territory. Specifically, Trump accuses Google of rigging

+See More

Paulson, Geithner, and Bernanke warn that people seem to have forgotten the lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Daphne Basel

2018-07-17 08:35:00 Tuesday ET

Paulson, Geithner, and Bernanke warn that people seem to have forgotten the lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner (former Treasury heads) and Ben Bernanke (former Fed chairman) warn that people seem to have forgotten the lessons of the

+See More

JPMorgan Chase CEO says President Trump has now awaken the animal spirits in U.S. stocks.

Dan Rochefort

2017-02-13 09:35:00 Monday ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO says President Trump has now awaken the animal spirits in U.S. stocks.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says President Trump has now awaken the *animal spirits* in the U.S. stock market. The key phrase, animal spirits, is the

+See More

The Trump administration postpones increasing 25% to 30% tariffs on $250 billion Chinese imports after China extends an olive branch to de-escalate Sino-American tariff tension.

Jacob Miramar

2019-10-01 11:33:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump administration postpones increasing 25% to 30% tariffs on $250 billion Chinese imports after China extends an olive branch to de-escalate Sino-American tariff tension.

The Trump administration postpones increasing 25% to 30% tariffs on $250 billion Chinese imports after China extends an olive branch to de-escalate Sino-Ame

+See More

There are several highlights from the first news conference after Trump's presidential election victory.

Monica McNeil

2017-01-23 09:30:00 Monday ET

There are several highlights from the first news conference after Trump's presidential election victory.

There are several highlights from the first news conference after Trump's presidential election victory: The Trump administration will repeal-and-

+See More