U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

Daisy Harvey

2018-01-04 07:36:00 Thursday ET

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options. Some recent U.S. Federal Reserve data suggest that both income and wealth inequal

+See More

The Economist digs deep into the political economy of U.S. government shutdown over 3 days in January 2018.

Apple Boston

2018-01-13 08:39:00 Saturday ET

The Economist digs deep into the political economy of U.S. government shutdown over 3 days in January 2018.

The Economist digs deep into the political economy of U.S. government shutdown over 3 days in January 2018. In more than 4 years since 2014, U.S. government

+See More

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups.

Becky Berkman

2019-08-09 18:35:00 Friday ET

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups.

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups; whereas, the government should now reassert itself in terms o

+See More

AYA fintech finbuzz illustrative video tutorials on YouTube

Amy Hamilton

2019-05-05 10:46:10 Sunday ET

AYA fintech finbuzz illustrative video tutorials on YouTube

This video collection shows the major features of our AYA fintech network platform for stock market investors: (1) AYA stock market content curation;&nbs

+See More

AYA fintech finbuzz analytic report on the U.S. top tech titans Fall-Winter 2019

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-11-06 12:29:00 Wednesday ET

AYA fintech finbuzz analytic report on the U.S. top tech titans Fall-Winter 2019

Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the fundamental prospects of U.S. tech titans Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (F.A.

+See More

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross suggests that 5G remains a U.S. top technology priority in light of the Sprint-T-Mobile telecom merger.

Amy Hamilton

2018-05-04 06:29:00 Friday ET

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross suggests that 5G remains a U.S. top technology priority in light of the Sprint-T-Mobile telecom merger.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross suggests that 5G remains a U.S. top technology priority in light of the telecom merger proposal between Sprint and T-Mobile a

+See More