U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism.

Jonah Whanau

2019-04-21 10:07:54 Sunday ET

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism.

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism. In accordance with the dual mandate of

+See More

Nir Eyal and Ryan Hoover explain why keystone habits lead us to purchase products, goods, and services in our daily lives.

Fiona Sydney

2025-07-26 09:26:00 Saturday ET

Nir Eyal and Ryan Hoover explain why keystone habits lead us to purchase products, goods, and services in our daily lives.

Nir Eyal and Ryan Hoover explain why keystone habits lead us to purchase products, goods, and services in our lives. The Hooked Model can help shine new lig

+See More

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliate

+See More

President Trump imposes punitive tariffs on $60 billion Chinese imports in a brand-new trade war.

Laura Hermes

2018-03-25 08:39:00 Sunday ET

President Trump imposes punitive tariffs on $60 billion Chinese imports in a brand-new trade war.

President Trump imposes punitive tariffs on $60 billion Chinese imports in a brand-new trade war as China hits back with retaliatory tariffs on $3 billion U

+See More

Blue-ocean strategists shift focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space.

Apple Boston

2020-05-21 11:30:00 Thursday ET

Blue-ocean strategists shift focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space.

Most blue-ocean strategists shift fundamental focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space. W. Chan Kim and Renee Ma

+See More

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate to the target range of 2.25% to 2.5% as of December 2018.

Charlene Vos

2018-12-22 14:38:00 Saturday ET

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate to the target range of 2.25% to 2.5% as of December 2018.

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate to the target range of 2.25% to 2.5% as of December 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlights the dovish interest ra

+See More