U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Federal Reserve reduces the interest rate by another quarter point to the target range of 1.75%-2% in September 2019.

John Fourier

2019-10-07 12:35:00 Monday ET

Federal Reserve reduces the interest rate by another quarter point to the target range of 1.75%-2% in September 2019.

Federal Reserve reduces the interest rate by another key quarter point to the target range of 1.75%-2% in September 2019. In accordance with the Federal Res

+See More

America faces income inequality, political polarization, and dysfunctional governance.

Rose Prince

2018-05-17 07:41:00 Thursday ET

America faces income inequality, political polarization, and dysfunctional governance.

Has America become a democratic free land of crumbling infrastructure, galloping income inequality, bitter political polarization, and dysfunctional governa

+See More

The unique controversial management style of Steve Jobs helps translate his business acumen into smart product development.

Dan Rochefort

2020-03-26 10:31:00 Thursday ET

The unique controversial management style of Steve Jobs helps translate his business acumen into smart product development.

The unique controversial management style of Steve Jobs helps translate his business acumen into smart product development. Jay Elliot (2012) Leading

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Cisco Systems (U.S. stock symbol: $CSCO).

Joseph Corr

2025-10-07 10:30:00 Tuesday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Cisco Systems (U.S. stock symbol: $CSCO).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups.

Becky Berkman

2019-08-09 18:35:00 Friday ET

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups.

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups; whereas, the government should now reassert itself in terms o

+See More

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to track major business risks in light of volatile stock markets.

Fiona Sydney

2019-01-11 10:33:00 Friday ET

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to track major business risks in light of volatile stock markets.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to track major business risks in light of volatile stock markets, elections, and geopolitics. EIU monitors g

+See More