U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thu ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S. recessions since the 1970s. However, no fundamental reason can help explain whether this inversion causes each recession. Correlation may not imply causation.

Many stock market analysts focus on the 3 root causes of an economic recession. First, the monetary authority tends to institute interest rate hikes to better contain inflation or money supply growth. A sustainable series of interest rate hikes help prevent macroeconomic instability; otherwise, high inflation would become a major source of economic disturbance.

Second, key energy prices often increase substantially in the dawn of an economic recession. Oil and natural gas prices tend to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks and military confrontations.

Third, stock market analysts would expect to see high unemployment, low capital investment, and low industrial production several months before a major recession. In this key alternative scenario, subpar labor and capital productivity can cause the economy to slide into at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Whether Treasury yield curve inversion serves as a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession remains open to controversy.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Michael Bloomberg criticizes that the Trump administration's tax reform is a trillion dollar blunder.

Fiona Sydney

2017-12-09 08:37:00 Saturday ET

Michael Bloomberg criticizes that the Trump administration's tax reform is a trillion dollar blunder.

Michael Bloomberg, former NYC mayor and media entrepreneur, criticizes that the Trump administration's tax reform is a trillion dollar blunder because i

+See More

China President Xi tries to ease trade tension between America and China in his Boao presidential address.

Monica McNeil

2018-04-02 07:33:00 Monday ET

China President Xi tries to ease trade tension between America and China in his Boao presidential address.

China President Xi JinPing tries to ease trade tension between America and China in his presidential address at the annual Boao forum. In his vulnerable att

+See More

U.S. Treasury's proposal for financial deregulation aims to remove key aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act.

Rose Prince

2017-08-25 13:36:00 Friday ET

U.S. Treasury's proposal for financial deregulation aims to remove key aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act.

The U.S. Treasury's June 2017 grand proposal for financial deregulation aims to remove several aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act 2010 such as annual macro s

+See More

The global pandemic crisis helps reshape international finance, trade, and technology.

James Campbell

2021-02-01 10:19:00 Monday ET

The global pandemic crisis helps reshape international finance, trade, and technology.

In recent times, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the fiscal-debt-to-GDP ratio of most rich economies would rise from 95% in 2018 to 135%

+See More

Business titans often step away from their urgent work, slow down, and invest in self-enrichment.

Laura Hermes

2017-12-23 10:40:00 Saturday ET

Business titans often step away from their urgent work, slow down, and invest in self-enrichment.

Despite having way more responsibility than anyone else, top business titans such as Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Oprah Winfrey often step away from

+See More

American allies assist AT&T and Verizon in implementing 5G telecommunication technology.

Daisy Harvey

2019-01-01 03:34:48 Tuesday ET

American allies assist AT&T and Verizon in implementing 5G telecommunication technology.

American allies assist AT&T and Verizon in implementing 5G telecommunication technology in the U.S. as such allies ban the use of HuaWei 5G telecom equi

+See More