Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius proposes designing a new Financial Conditions Index (FCI).

Chanel Holden

2018-07-19 18:38:00 Thu ET

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius proposes designing a new Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to be a weighted-average of interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, and credit spreads. Each weight corresponds to the direct marginal contribution of each macro variate to real GDP economic growth. Hatzius amends a New Keynesian macroeconomic model to embed an FCI in a Taylor monetary policy rule that induces the central bank to ease the FCI when either inflation or employment falls below mandate-consistent thresholds. This macroeconometric analysis suggests an FCI-driven policy rule for maintaining the neutral interest rate that better contains inflation near full employment.

The Trump administration's chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow engages in a hot and healthy debate with several economists who warn of an economic recession that might arise from the Sino-American trade war with higher U.S. budget deficits and tax cuts. Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both robust employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP growth in mid-2018. Moreover, Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

In contrast, some other eminent economists such as Mark Zandi (Moody's chief economist) and Ken Griffin (Citadel CEO) are less optimistic about the current U.S. economic boom. Zandi shares his fresh insight that the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hike to dampen inflationary pressure until a recession occurs early in the next decade. Griffin considers a murkier outlook that the Trump tax cuts may have pulled forward both consumer and business demand.

The current economic boom is the second-longest in U.S. history and thus may or may not sustain in the next decade. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin reiterates America’s long-term credible commitment to maintaining a strong greenback with minimal risk of a currency war. In accordance with Mnuchin's recent remarks after the G20 summit of finance ministers, Mnuchin needs to dismiss the arcane idea of U.S. dollar intervention.  

On balance, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve can consider the new FCI in order to make better and wiser economic policy decisions.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
The financial crisis of 2008-2009 affects many millennials as they bear the primary costs of college tuition, residential demand, health care, and childcare.
Peter Prince

2019-06-23 08:30:00 Sunday ET

The financial crisis of 2008-2009 affects many millennials as they bear the primary costs of college tuition, residential demand, health care, and childcare.

The financial crisis of 2008-2009 affects many millennials as they bear the primary costs of college tuition, residential demand, health care, and childcare

+See More
Kobe Bryant and several other star athletes have been smart savvy investors.
Charlene Vos

2019-08-08 09:35:00 Thursday ET

Kobe Bryant and several other star athletes have been smart savvy investors.

Kobe Bryant and several other star athletes have been smart savvy investors. In collaboration with former Web.com CEO Jeff Stibel, the NBA champion invests

+See More
President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution.
Monica McNeil

2019-02-05 10:32:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution.

President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution of both trade deficit eradication and tech transfer enforcement. Trump now s

+See More
The Trump $1.5 trillion hefty tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures may speed up the Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Joseph Corr

2018-03-15 07:41:00 Thursday ET

The Trump $1.5 trillion hefty tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures may speed up the Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

The Trump administration's $1.5 trillion hefty tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures may speed up the Federal Reserve interest rate hike

+See More
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal.
James Campbell

2019-03-23 09:31:00 Saturday ET

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal.

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal. In accordance with the modern

+See More
Larry Summers critiques that the Trump tax holiday for U.S. multinational corporations may cause inadvertent consequences.
Rose Prince

2017-01-17 12:42:00 Tuesday ET

Larry Summers critiques that the Trump tax holiday for U.S. multinational corporations may cause inadvertent consequences.

Former Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers critiques that the Trump administration's generous tax holiday for American multinational

+See More