The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.
Apple Boston

2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.

Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.

A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.

Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends.
Amy Hamilton

2020-02-12 09:31:00 Wednesday ET

Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends.

Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends. David Kirkpatrick (2011) T

+See More
The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.
Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliate

+See More
President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with better trade deals and economic ties.
Jacob Miramar

2018-03-03 11:37:00 Saturday ET

President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with better trade deals and economic ties.

President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval and constitutional amendment for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with more favorable trade de

+See More
Tim Berners-Lee suggests that several tech titans might need to be split up in response to some recent data breach and privacy concerns.
Chanel Holden

2018-11-09 11:35:00 Friday ET

Tim Berners-Lee suggests that several tech titans might need to be split up in response to some recent data breach and privacy concerns.

The Internet inventor Tim Berners-Lee suggests that several tech titans might need to be split up in response to some recent data breach and privacy concern

+See More
President of US-China Business Council Craig Allen states that a trade deal should be within reach if Trump and Xi show courage at G20.
Daisy Harvey

2019-07-15 16:37:00 Monday ET

President of US-China Business Council Craig Allen states that a trade deal should be within reach if Trump and Xi show courage at G20.

President of US-China Business Council Craig Allen states that a trade deal should be within reach if Trump and Xi show courage at G20. A landmark trade agr

+See More
Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.
Fiona Sydney

2019-04-15 08:37:00 Monday ET

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy. Chinese Be

+See More