The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

Apple Boston

2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.

Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.

A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.

Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
Sprint and T-Mobile propose a major merger in order to better compete with AT&T and Verizon.
Joseph Corr

2018-05-03 07:34:00 Thursday ET

Sprint and T-Mobile propose a major merger in order to better compete with AT&T and Verizon.

Sprint and T-Mobile propose a major merger in order to better compete with AT&T and Verizon. This mega merger is worth $26.5 billion and involves an all

+See More
U.S. government shuts down again because House Democrats refuse to spend $5 billion on the border wall.
Amy Hamilton

2019-01-19 12:38:00 Saturday ET

U.S. government shuts down again because House Democrats refuse to spend $5 billion on the border wall.

U.S. government shuts down again because House Democrats refuse to spend $5 billion on the border wall that would give President Trump great victory on his

+See More
Fed's new chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress for the first time.
Rose Prince

2018-02-27 09:35:00 Tuesday ET

Fed's new chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress for the first time.

Fed's new chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress for the first time. He vows to prevent price instability for U.S. consumers, firms, and finan

+See More
Apple settles its 2-year intellectual property lawsuit with Qualcomm by agreeing to a multi-year patent license.
Charlene Vos

2019-05-01 09:27:00 Wednesday ET

Apple settles its 2-year intellectual property lawsuit with Qualcomm by agreeing to a multi-year patent license.

Apple settles its 2-year intellectual property lawsuit with Qualcomm by agreeing to a multi-year patent license with royalty payments to the microchip maker

+See More
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property protection and enforcement.
James Campbell

2019-10-05 07:27:00 Saturday ET

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property protection and enforcement.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property pr

+See More
Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota.
Daisy Harvey

2020-07-19 09:25:00 Sunday ET

Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota.

Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota. Takehiko Harada (2015)  

+See More