OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020.
Rose Prince

2019-03-27 11:28:00 Wed ET

OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020. The global economy suffers from economic protraction and uncertainty amid the recent Sino-U.S. trade and Brexit standoffs. Moreover, OECD downgrades real GDP growth rates from 6.5% to 6% for China and from 1.5% to 1% for Europe. The Chinese Xi administration attempts to assuage U.S. concerns about the bilateral trade deficit, unfair technology transfer, and intellectual property protection. Meanwhile, the British May administration seeks to delay Brexit to buy extra time for a plausible second referendum on whether the U.K. should leave the European trade bloc. These trade issues can cloud macroeconomic momentum in Europe and East Asia.

Several chief economists recommend the European and Asian central banks not to follow the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes too soon. To the extent that these non-American central banks decelerate the global financial cycle with less hawkish monetary policy adjustments, Europe and East Asia can insulate themselves from volatile exchange rates, stock market gyrations, and cross-border capital flows that might arise from the next Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The subsequent international interest rate increases are likely to reflect recent upticks in consumer confidence, wage growth, and core inflation.
 


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