2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-08-26 11:30:00 Monday ET
Partisanship matters more than the socioeconomic influence of the rich and elite interest groups. This new trend emerges from the recent empirical analysis
2019-10-15 09:13:00 Tuesday ET
U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson encounters defeat during his new premiership. The first major vote would pave the path of least resistance to passing a no
2018-12-20 13:40:00 Thursday ET
T-Mobile and Sprint indicate that the U.S. is likely to approve their merger plan as they take the offer from foreign owners to stop using HuaWei telecom te
2019-10-19 16:35:00 Saturday ET
European economic integration seems to have gone backwards primarily due to the recent Brexit movement. Brexit, key European sovereign debt, and French and
2017-03-27 06:33:00 Monday ET
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius says the Federal Reserve's QE exit strategy makes sense ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's stepdown in 2018
2025-02-28 11:31:00 Friday ET
AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools for stock market investors. As of September 2025, we hav