2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-04-17 11:34:00 Wednesday ET
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos admits the fact that antitrust scrutiny remains a primary imminent threat to his e-commerce business empire. In his annual letter to A
2019-01-21 10:37:00 Monday ET
Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube January 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues
2020-10-20 09:36:00 Tuesday ET
Agile lean enterprises remain flexible and capable of reinvention in light of new megatrends such as digitization and servitization. Shane Cragun and Kat
2019-01-12 10:33:00 Saturday ET
With majority control, House Democrats pass 2 bills to reopen the U.S. government without funding the Trump border wall. President Trump makes a surprise Wh
2023-09-21 09:26:00 Thursday ET
Jordi Gali delves into the science of the New Keynesian monetary policy framework with economic output and inflation stabilization. Jordi Gali (2015)
2025-09-18 08:03:32 Thursday ET
Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund