2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-03-31 11:40:00 Sunday ET
AYA Analytica free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of March 2019: (1) Sargent-Wallac
2019-03-15 13:36:00 Friday ET
CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends both Caterpillar and Home Depot as the U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comment
2020-08-19 10:32:00 Wednesday ET
Corporate strategies, portfolio choices, and management memes add value and drive business process improvements over time. Andrew Campbell, Jo Whitehead,
2019-01-21 10:37:00 Monday ET
Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube January 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues
2018-07-19 18:38:00 Thursday ET
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius proposes designing a new Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to be a weighted-average of interest rates, exchange rat
2023-09-28 08:26:00 Thursday ET
Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show a constant economic tussle between society and the state in the hot pursuit of liberty. Daron Acemoglu and James R