2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2020-08-12 07:25:00 Wednesday ET
Most sustainably successful business leaders make a mark in the world, create a positive impact, and challenge the status quo. Jerry Porras, Stewart Emer
2018-04-13 14:42:00 Friday ET
Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea with no regime change as the North Korean dicta
2019-08-20 07:33:00 Tuesday ET
The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer. Britain appoints former London mayor and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson as the prime minis
2023-02-07 08:26:00 Tuesday ET
Michel De Vroey delves into the global history of macroeconomic theories from real business cycles to persistent monetary effects. Michel De Vroey (2016)
2018-10-01 07:33:00 Monday ET
President Trump announces the new trilateral trade agreement among America, Canada, and Mexico: the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaces and revamp
2018-06-25 12:43:00 Monday ET
Apple and Samsung are the archrivals for the title of the world's top smart phone maker. The recent patent lawsuit settlement between Apple and Samsung