2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-11-07 08:30:00 Wednesday ET
PwC releases a new study of top innovators worldwide as of November 2018. This study assesses the top 1,000 global companies that spend the most on R&D
2019-02-21 12:37:00 Thursday ET
Apple shakes up senior leadership to initiate a new transition from iPhone revenue reliance to media and software services. These changes include the key pr
2018-05-13 08:33:00 Sunday ET
Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance in order to stop holding the financial market's han
2023-10-28 12:29:00 Saturday ET
Paul Morland suggests that demographic changes lead to modern economic growth in the current world. Paul Morland (2019) The human tide: how
2018-05-23 09:41:00 Wednesday ET
Many U.S. large public corporations spend their tax cuts on new dividend payout and share buyback but not on new job creation and R&D innovation. These
2018-10-01 07:33:00 Monday ET
President Trump announces the new trilateral trade agreement among America, Canada, and Mexico: the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaces and revamp