2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-04-17 11:34:00 Wednesday ET
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos admits the fact that antitrust scrutiny remains a primary imminent threat to his e-commerce business empire. In his annual letter to A
2019-08-31 14:39:00 Saturday ET
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube August 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of August 2019: (1) Warren B
2025-03-03 04:11:06 Monday ET
Is higher stock market concentration good or bad for Corporate America? In recent years, S&P 500 stock market returns exhibit spectacular concentrati
2018-04-23 07:43:00 Monday ET
Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff advocates that artificial intelligence helps augment human productivity growth in the next d
2019-08-14 10:31:00 Wednesday ET
Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes. The company adds only 2.7 million new subscribers in 2019Q2 in stark
2019-12-16 11:37:00 Monday ET
America and China cannot decouple decades of long-term collaboration in trade, finance, and technology. In recent times, some economists claim that China ma