2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-08-28 14:46:00 Wednesday ET
Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy. Cohen fin
2019-04-30 19:46:00 Tuesday ET
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube April 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of April 2019: (1) Our proprietary
2018-03-03 11:37:00 Saturday ET
President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval and constitutional amendment for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with more favorable trade de
2018-07-07 10:33:00 Saturday ET
The east-west tech rivalry intensifies between BATs (Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent) and FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google). These Sino-U.S.
2018-05-06 07:30:00 Sunday ET
President Trump withdraws America from the Iran nuclear agreement and revives economic sanctions on Iran for better negotiations as western allies Britain,
2019-01-02 06:28:00 Wednesday ET
New York Fed CEO John Williams listens to sharp share price declines as part of the data-dependent interest rate policy. The Federal Reserve can respond to