2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-08-19 10:34:00 Sunday ET

The World Economic Forum warns that artificial intelligence may destabilize the financial system. Artificial intelligence poses at least a trifecta of major
2018-10-11 08:44:00 Thursday ET

Treasury bond yield curve inversion often signals the next economic recession in America. In fact, U.S. bond yield curve inversion correctly predicts the da
2019-02-02 11:36:00 Saturday ET

The Trump administration teams up with western allies to bar HuaWei and other Chinese tech firms from building the 5G high-speed infrastructure due to natio
2017-11-03 06:41:00 Friday ET

Broadcom, a one-time division of Hewlett-Packard and now a semiconductor maker whose chips help power iPhone X, has announced its strategic plans to move it
2018-07-17 08:35:00 Tuesday ET

Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner (former Treasury heads) and Ben Bernanke (former Fed chairman) warn that people seem to have forgotten the lessons of the
2019-06-15 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliate