IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

Charlene Vos

2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.

Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Sino-American trade talks make positive progress over 3 consecutive days.

Joseph Corr

2019-01-17 10:41:00 Thursday ET

Sino-American trade talks make positive progress over 3 consecutive days.

Sino-American trade talks make positive progress over 3 consecutive days as S&P 500 and global stock market indices post 3-day win streaks. Asian and Eu

+See More

China poses new economic, technological, and military threats to the U.S. and many western allies.

Joseph Corr

2024-02-05 11:26:00 Monday ET

China poses new economic, technological, and military threats to the U.S. and many western allies.

China poses new economic, technological, and military threats to the U.S. and many western allies. In the U.S. government assessment, China poses new eco

+See More

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes.

Rose Prince

2019-08-14 10:31:00 Wednesday ET

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes.

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes. The company adds only 2.7 million new subscribers in 2019Q2 in stark

+See More

Millennials can save to make a fortune with compound interest over 40 years.

Laura Hermes

2017-07-25 10:44:00 Tuesday ET

Millennials can save to make a fortune with compound interest over 40 years.

NerdWallet's new simulation suggests that a 25-year-old millennial who earns an inflation-free base salary of $40,456 and saves 15% each year faces a 99

+See More

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

Dan Rochefort

2023-04-14 13:32:00 Friday ET

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Charles Calomiris an

+See More

The Trump administration still expects to reach a Sino-U.S. trade agreement with better intellectual property protection and enforcement.

Apple Boston

2019-05-11 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Trump administration still expects to reach a Sino-U.S. trade agreement with better intellectual property protection and enforcement.

The Trump administration still expects to reach a Sino-U.S. trade agreement with a better mechanism for intellectual property protection and enforcement. Pr

+See More