IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

Charlene Vos

2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.

Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Apple unveils 3 iPhone 11 models with new original video services and stars such as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon.

Joseph Corr

2019-10-13 16:22:00 Sunday ET

Apple unveils 3 iPhone 11 models with new original video services and stars such as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon.

Apple unveils 3 iPhone 11 models with new original video services and stars such as Oprah Winfrey, Jennifer Aniston, and Reese Witherspoon. Apple releases t

+See More

Chinese trade delegation offers to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products to reach an interim trade deal with the Trump administration.

Peter Prince

2019-11-03 12:30:00 Sunday ET

Chinese trade delegation offers to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products to reach an interim trade deal with the Trump administration.

Chinese trade delegation offers to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products to reach an interim trade deal with the Trump administration. Chinese Vice

+See More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2025.

James Campbell

2025-02-02 11:28:00 Sunday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2025.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2025. Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the ma

+See More

Agile lean enterprises strive to design radical business models to remain competitive in the face of nimble startups and megatrends.

Joseph Corr

2020-10-13 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Agile lean enterprises strive to design radical business models to remain competitive in the face of nimble startups and megatrends.

Agile lean enterprises strive to design radical business models to remain competitive in the face of nimble startups and megatrends. Carsten Linz, Gunter

+See More

Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy.

Jonah Whanau

2019-02-25 12:41:00 Monday ET

Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy.

Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy in addition to open markets and states. Rajan suggests

+See More

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes.

Olivia London

2023-03-21 11:28:00 Tuesday ET

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes.

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes. Barry Eichengreen (2016)

+See More