IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

Charlene Vos

2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.

Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Strategic managers envision lofty purposes to enjoy incremental consistent progress over time.

Jonah Whanau

2020-10-06 09:31:00 Tuesday ET

Strategic managers envision lofty purposes to enjoy incremental consistent progress over time.

Strategic managers envision lofty purposes to enjoy incremental consistent progress over time. Allison Rimm (2015)   The joy of strategy: a bu

+See More

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination

Becky Berkman

2023-12-07 07:22:00 Thursday ET

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination Traditionally, fiscal and monetary policies were made incrementally. In

+See More

Federal Reserve confirms that all of the 34 major banks pass their annual CCAR macro stress tests.

Apple Boston

2017-05-31 06:36:00 Wednesday ET

Federal Reserve confirms that all of the 34 major banks pass their annual CCAR macro stress tests.

The Federal Reserve rubber-stamps the positive conclusion that all of the 34 major banks pass their annual CCAR macro stress tests for the first time since

+See More

Trump's presidential election victory caused an unpredictable *black swan* in almost every non-U.S. stock market in the world.

Fiona Sydney

2016-11-09 00:00:00 Wednesday ET

Trump's presidential election victory caused an unpredictable *black swan* in almost every non-U.S. stock market in the world.

Universally dismissed as a vanity presidential candidate when he entered a field crowded with Republican talent, the former Democrat and former Independent

+See More

Smart firms and customers connect the continuous flow of lean production to the lean consumption of cost-effective minimum viable products.

Olivia London

2020-07-26 15:29:00 Sunday ET

Smart firms and customers connect the continuous flow of lean production to the lean consumption of cost-effective minimum viable products.

Firms and customers create value and wealth together by joining the continual flow of small batches of lean production to the lean consumption of cost-effec

+See More

Buffett discusses Berkshire's cash ambition, its reinsurance business, and his succession plan.

Becky Berkman

2018-02-23 09:35:00 Friday ET

Buffett discusses Berkshire's cash ambition, its reinsurance business, and his succession plan.

Warren Buffett releases his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders as of February 2018. Buffett discusses Berkshire's core cash ambition, its

+See More