2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-12-03 11:33:00 Sunday ET
Macro innovations and asset alphas show significant mutual causation. April 2023 This brief article draws from the recent research publicati
2019-08-01 11:33:00 Thursday ET
Many young and mid-career Americans fall into the financial distress trap in rural communities. A recent analysis of 25,800 zip codes for 99% of the U.S. po
2018-09-29 12:39:00 Saturday ET
The Securities and Exchange Commission (S.E.C.) sues Elon Musk for his August 2018 tweet that he has secured external finance to convert Tesla into a privat
2019-12-01 10:31:00 Sunday ET
Goop Founder and CEO Gwyneth Paltrow serves as a great inspiration for female entrepreneurs. Paltrow designs Goop as an online newsletter, and this newslett
2025-03-03 04:11:06 Monday ET
Is higher stock market concentration good or bad for Corporate America? In recent years, S&P 500 stock market returns exhibit spectacular concentrati
2019-03-17 14:35:00 Sunday ET
U.S. trade rep Robert Lighthizer proposes America to require regular touchpoints to ensure Sino-U.S. trade deal enforcement. America has to maintain the thr