2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-03-21 09:37:00 Tuesday ET
Trump and Xi meet in the most important summit on earth this year. Trump has promised to retaliate against China's currency misalignment, steel trade
2019-09-07 17:37:00 Saturday ET
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announces the monetary policy decision to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 2%-2.25%. This interest rat
2019-12-07 11:30:00 Saturday ET
China turns on its 5G telecom networks in the hot pursuit of global tech supremacy. China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile disclose 5G fees of $18-$2
2020-10-06 09:31:00 Tuesday ET
Strategic managers envision lofty purposes to enjoy incremental consistent progress over time. Allison Rimm (2015) The joy of strategy: a bu
2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wednesday ET
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with stro
2018-05-08 13:39:00 Tuesday ET
The Trump administration weighs the pros and cons of a potential mega merger between AT&T and Time Warner. Recent stock prices show favorable trends for