2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-08-23 11:34:00 Thursday ET
Harvard financial economist Alberto Cavallo empirically shows the recent *Amazon effect* that online retailers such as Amazon, Alibaba, and eBay etc use fas
2018-09-30 14:34:00 Sunday ET
Goldman, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, and UBS face an antitrust lawsuit. In this lawsuit, a U.S. judge alleges the illegal cons
2023-05-28 10:24:00 Sunday ET
Thomas Piketty connects the dots between economic growth and inequality worldwide with long-term global empirical evidence. Thomas Piketty (2017) &nbs
2019-11-23 08:33:00 Saturday ET
MIT financial economist Simon Johnson rethinks capitalism with better key market incentives. Johnson refers to the recent Business Roundtable CEO statement
2017-08-13 09:36:00 Sunday ET
Several investors and billionaires such as George Soros, Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, and Howard Marks suggest that the time may be ripe for a major financia
2019-02-03 13:39:00 Sunday ET
It can be practical for the U.S. to impose the 2% wealth tax on the rich. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes a 2% wealth tax on the richest Americ