IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

Charlene Vos

2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.

Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The U.S. greenback soars in value as the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hike.

Daisy Harvey

2018-10-07 13:39:00 Sunday ET

The U.S. greenback soars in value as the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hike.

The U.S. greenback soars in value as the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hike. With impressive service-sector data and non-farm payroll wage gro

+See More

Federal Reserve institutes the third interest rate cut with a rare pause signal.

Daisy Harvey

2019-12-10 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

Federal Reserve institutes the third interest rate cut with a rare pause signal.

Federal Reserve institutes the third interest rate cut with a rare pause signal. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduces the benchmark interest rat

+See More

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).

Becky Berkman

2019-03-21 12:33:00 Thursday ET

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA). These tech titans have become

+See More

President Trump supports a bipartisan bill or the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act.

Charlene Vos

2018-07-21 13:35:00 Saturday ET

President Trump supports a bipartisan bill or the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act.

President Trump supports a bipartisan bill or the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA), which effectively broadens the jurisdiction of

+See More

Chicago finance professor Raghuram Rajan suggests that free markets need populist support against an unholy alliance of private-sector and state elites.

John Fourier

2019-05-21 12:37:00 Tuesday ET

Chicago finance professor Raghuram Rajan suggests that free markets need populist support against an unholy alliance of private-sector and state elites.

Chicago finance professor Raghuram Rajan shows that free markets need populist support against an unholy alliance of private-sector and state elites. When a

+See More

The U.S. stock market delivers a hefty long-term average return of 11% per annum.

Peter Prince

2017-03-09 05:32:00 Thursday ET

The U.S. stock market delivers a hefty long-term average return of 11% per annum.

From 1927 to 2017, the U.S. stock market has delivered a hefty average return of about 11% per annum. The U.S. average stock market return is high in stark

+See More