2019-04-29 08:35:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key downside risks to the global economy, especially in the car and aircraft sectors. Trump trade envoys need to reach mutual agreement with the Chinese Xi administration with respect to U.S. bilateral trade deficit eradication and intellectual property protection and enforcement. Second, slower economic growth poses another major threat to continental economies such as China and Europe. These economies turn out to be the biggest victims of American tariffs that the Trump administration unilaterally decides to impose due to U.S. trade protectionism. Third, a deterioration in stock market investor sentiment may rapidly tighten financial constraints and conditions in the broader context of perennial public debt accumulation in the U.S. and several other OECD countries. This deterioration may inadvertently exacerbate sovereign bank doom-loop default risks.
Federal Reserve has to halt the current interest rate hike to reinvigorate a smooth global financial cycle as the Chinese, European, and Japanese central banks and fiscal authorities coordinate their next macroeconomic stimulus programs. Global monetary policy coordination continues to help maintain stock market momentum and economic growth via dovish monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus worldwide.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-05-23 10:33:00 Thursday ET
Berkeley professor and economist Barry Eichengreen reconciles the nominal and real interest rates to argue in favor of greater fiscal deficits. French econo
2018-06-06 09:39:00 Wednesday ET
Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet, talk, and shake hands in the historic peace summit between America and North Korea in Singapore. At the start of the bila
2023-05-27 11:30:00 Saturday ET
Bank failure resolution and financial risk management: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. What are the main root cau
2018-12-23 13:39:00 Sunday ET
The House of Representatives considers a government expenditure bill with border wall finance and therefore sets up a shutdown stalemate with Senate. As fre
2019-02-02 11:36:00 Saturday ET
The Trump administration teams up with western allies to bar HuaWei and other Chinese tech firms from building the 5G high-speed infrastructure due to natio
2019-04-27 16:41:00 Saturday ET
Tony Robbins suggests that one has to be able to make money during sleep hours in order to reach financial freedom. Most of our jobs and life experiences tr