2019-09-09 20:38:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro sees no good reasons for the recent sudden reversal of U.S. monetary policy normalization. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell yields to the persistent demands of a vocal president, the FOMC approves an interim interest rate cut by quarter point to 2%-2.25%. This rate cut represents a clear departure from the current business cycle of interest rate hikes in recent years. Barro advocates the Taylor monetary policy rule that the nominal interest rate should rise in response to higher inflation and economic output both relative to their targets. In accordance with the key Taylor monetary policy rule, the nominal interest rate normally tends toward a gradual long-term equilibrium path.
In this light, Barro regards the recent interest rate reduction as a special deviation from the prior path of U.S. monetary policy normalization. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seems to justify the recent interest rate cut in terms of the fact that U.S. inflation remains low and tame as the economy operates near full employment despite continual trade escalation between the U.S. and China. Barro indicates the clear and present danger that the recent rate reduction represents a dovish Powell response to many stock market analysts and the Trump administration.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2020-11-24 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

Many analytic business competitors can apply smart data science to support their distinctive capabilities and strategic advantages. Thomas Davenport and
2023-12-09 08:28:00 Saturday ET

International trade, immigration, and elite-mass conflict The elite model portrays public policy as a reflection of the interests and values of elites. I
2023-03-21 11:28:00 Tuesday ET

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes. Barry Eichengreen (2016)
2022-03-05 09:27:00 Saturday ET

Addendum on empirical tests of multi-factor models for asset return prediction Fama and French (2015) propose an empirical five-factor asset pricing mode
2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thursday ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S.
2027-04-30 12:31:00 Friday ET

In recent years, the current AI-driven stock market rally may or may not turn out to be another major asset bubble in global human history. For the pract