2018-07-19 18:38:00 Thu ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius proposes designing a new Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to be a weighted-average of interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, and credit spreads. Each weight corresponds to the direct marginal contribution of each macro variate to real GDP economic growth. Hatzius amends a New Keynesian macroeconomic model to embed an FCI in a Taylor monetary policy rule that induces the central bank to ease the FCI when either inflation or employment falls below mandate-consistent thresholds. This macroeconometric analysis suggests an FCI-driven policy rule for maintaining the neutral interest rate that better contains inflation near full employment.
The Trump administration's chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow engages in a hot and healthy debate with several economists who warn of an economic recession that might arise from the Sino-American trade war with higher U.S. budget deficits and tax cuts. Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both robust employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP growth in mid-2018. Moreover, Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.
In contrast, some other eminent economists such as Mark Zandi (Moody's chief economist) and Ken Griffin (Citadel CEO) are less optimistic about the current U.S. economic boom. Zandi shares his fresh insight that the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hike to dampen inflationary pressure until a recession occurs early in the next decade. Griffin considers a murkier outlook that the Trump tax cuts may have pulled forward both consumer and business demand.
The current economic boom is the second-longest in U.S. history and thus may or may not sustain in the next decade. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin reiterates America’s long-term credible commitment to maintaining a strong greenback with minimal risk of a currency war. In accordance with Mnuchin's recent remarks after the G20 summit of finance ministers, Mnuchin needs to dismiss the arcane idea of U.S. dollar intervention.
On balance, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve can consider the new FCI in order to make better and wiser economic policy decisions.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-10-21 14:40:00 Sunday ET
President Trump floats generous 10% tax cuts for the U.S. middle class ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections. Republican senators, congressmen, and
2019-07-19 18:40:00 Friday ET
We can decipher valuable lessons from the annual letters to shareholders written by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. Amazon is highly customer-centric because the wor
2019-08-05 13:30:00 Monday ET
China continues to sell U.S. Treasury bonds amid Sino-U.S. trade truce uncertainty. In mid-2019, China reduces its U.S. Treasury bond positions by $20.5 bil
2018-08-11 14:35:00 Saturday ET
The Trump administration imposes 20%-50% tariffs on Turkish imports due to a recent spat over the detention of an American pastor, Andrew Brunson, in Turkey
2018-07-23 07:41:00 Monday ET
President Trump now agrees to cease fire in the trade conflict with the European Union. Both sides can work together towards *zero tariffs, zero non-tariff
2023-12-10 09:23:00 Sunday ET
U.S. federalism and domestic institutional arrangements A given country is federal when both of its national and sub-national governments exercise separa