Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius proposes designing a new Financial Conditions Index (FCI).

Chanel Holden

2018-07-19 18:38:00 Thu ET

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius proposes designing a new Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to be a weighted-average of interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, and credit spreads. Each weight corresponds to the direct marginal contribution of each macro variate to real GDP economic growth. Hatzius amends a New Keynesian macroeconomic model to embed an FCI in a Taylor monetary policy rule that induces the central bank to ease the FCI when either inflation or employment falls below mandate-consistent thresholds. This macroeconometric analysis suggests an FCI-driven policy rule for maintaining the neutral interest rate that better contains inflation near full employment.

The Trump administration's chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow engages in a hot and healthy debate with several economists who warn of an economic recession that might arise from the Sino-American trade war with higher U.S. budget deficits and tax cuts. Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both robust employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP growth in mid-2018. Moreover, Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

In contrast, some other eminent economists such as Mark Zandi (Moody's chief economist) and Ken Griffin (Citadel CEO) are less optimistic about the current U.S. economic boom. Zandi shares his fresh insight that the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hike to dampen inflationary pressure until a recession occurs early in the next decade. Griffin considers a murkier outlook that the Trump tax cuts may have pulled forward both consumer and business demand.

The current economic boom is the second-longest in U.S. history and thus may or may not sustain in the next decade. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin reiterates America’s long-term credible commitment to maintaining a strong greenback with minimal risk of a currency war. In accordance with Mnuchin's recent remarks after the G20 summit of finance ministers, Mnuchin needs to dismiss the arcane idea of U.S. dollar intervention.  

On balance, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve can consider the new FCI in order to make better and wiser economic policy decisions.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Apple pursues an early harvest strategy that focuses on extracting healthy profits from the Mac, iPhone, and iPad.

Monica McNeil

2017-05-01 09:45:00 Monday ET

Apple pursues an early harvest strategy that focuses on extracting healthy profits from the Mac, iPhone, and iPad.

Apple now pursues an early harvest strategy that focuses on extracting healthy profits from a relatively static market for the Mac, iPhone, and iPad, all of

+See More

President Trump praises great unity and progress at the G7 summit.

Rose Prince

2019-09-21 09:25:00 Saturday ET

President Trump praises great unity and progress at the G7 summit.

President Trump praises great unity and progress at the G7 summit with respect to Sino-U.S. trade conflict resolution, global climate change, containment fo

+See More

Tony Robbins suggests that one has to be able to make money during sleep hours in order to reach financial freedom.

Laura Hermes

2019-04-27 16:41:00 Saturday ET

Tony Robbins suggests that one has to be able to make money during sleep hours in order to reach financial freedom.

Tony Robbins suggests that one has to be able to make money during sleep hours in order to reach financial freedom. Most of our jobs and life experiences tr

+See More

President Trump floats generous 10% tax cuts for the U.S. middle class ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections.

Jacob Miramar

2018-10-21 14:40:00 Sunday ET

President Trump floats generous 10% tax cuts for the U.S. middle class ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections.

President Trump floats generous 10% tax cuts for the U.S. middle class ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections. Republican senators, congressmen, and

+See More

Fed Chair Jerome Powell answers CBS News 60 Minutes questions about the recent U.S. economic outlook.

Dan Rochefort

2019-03-29 12:28:00 Friday ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell answers CBS News 60 Minutes questions about the recent U.S. economic outlook.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers CBS News 60 Minutes questions about the recent U.S. economic outlook and interest rate cycle. Powell views the c

+See More

The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Friday ET

The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past deca

+See More