2018-07-09 09:39:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Federal Reserve raises the interest rate again in mid-2018 in response to 2% inflation and wage growth. The current neutral interest rate hike neither boosts nor constrains inflationary pressure. FOMC minutes reveal some members' concerns about whether the Trump tariffs would dampen robust macroeconomic momentum and full employment. When western allies such as Canada, Europe, and Mexico lash back with retaliatory steel and aluminum tariffs, this ripple effect may weaken 2.7%-3% U.S. economic growth and production. Both capital equipment and risky asset investments may deteriorate in light of international trade frictions.
Also, FOMC members express their concern about potential yield curve inversion that might signal the dawn of an economic recession. Whether a recession lurks around the corner remains an open controversy. While both stock market valuation and domestic demand continue to indicate investor optimism, the core term spread between short-and-long-term interest rates warns of potential output contraction.
In light of its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rate twice in the second half of 2018. The current interest rate hike may continue above the neutral threshold sometime in mid-2019.
On balance, the recent Fed Chair transition from Yellen to Powell reflects the fact that the medium-term monetary policy stance has shifted from dovish to hawkish. A dovish monetary policy stance focuses on attaining full employment, whereas, a hawkish stance emphasizes inflation containment.
This monetary policy transition is a major inflection point that shines fresh light on the inexorable and mysterious New Keynesian trade-off between price stability and employment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-08-13 09:36:00 Sunday ET
Several investors and billionaires such as George Soros, Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, and Howard Marks suggest that the time may be ripe for a major financia
2018-06-07 10:36:00 Thursday ET
AT&T wins court approval to take over Time Warner with a trademark $85 billion bid despite the Trump administration prior dissent due to antitrust conce
2018-07-05 13:40:00 Thursday ET
U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, and Russia voice their concern at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in ligh
2018-09-09 13:42:00 Sunday ET
Warren Buffett shares his key insights into life, success, money, and interpersonal communication. Institutional money managers and retail investors ca
2019-02-28 12:39:00 Thursday ET
New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear. After raising the interest
2019-09-01 10:31:00 Sunday ET
Most artificial intelligence applications cannot figure out the intricate nuances of natural language and facial recognition. These intricate nuances repres