2018-06-08 13:35:00 Fri ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects subsequent rate increases in September and December 2018 to dampen inflationary pressures. This decision reflects robust economic revival in America. With sound price stability, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment with 2.1% inflation and 3.8% unemployment (i.e. the lowest unemployment rate since 2000). The current real economic growth trajectory accords with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
The Federal Reserve pencils in subsequent interest rate hikes later in 2018 (2%-2.25% in September 2018 and then 2.25%-2.5% in December 2018). This gradual acceleration of interest rate increases helps contain inflation with steady gains in the labor market. The current interest rate hike might disappoint President Trump who would otherwise prefer dovish monetary policy accommodation (in contrast to hawkish inflation containment).
However, the Federal Reserve reiterates monetary policy independence and thus continues the current interest rate hike as the U.S. economy moves along the long-run steady-state economic growth path of healthy fundamental recalibration. On balance, it is now quite plausible for America to achieve 3%+ real GDP economic growth to better balance the U.S. fiscal budget that helps neutralize both trade and budget deficits in the medium term.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-08-24 14:38:00 Saturday ET
Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.
2019-07-05 09:32:00 Friday ET
Warwick macroeconomic expert Roger Farmer proposes paying for social welfare programs with no tax hikes. The U.S. government pension and Medicare liabilitie
2017-12-21 12:45:00 Thursday ET
Tony Robbins summarizes several personal finance and investment lessons for the typical layperson: We cannot beat the stock market very often, so it w
2018-07-17 08:35:00 Tuesday ET
Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner (former Treasury heads) and Ben Bernanke (former Fed chairman) warn that people seem to have forgotten the lessons of the
2017-10-21 08:45:00 Saturday ET
Netflix stares at higher content costs as Disney and Fox hold merger talks. Disney has held talks to acquire most of 21st Century Fox's business equity.
2019-12-19 14:43:00 Thursday ET
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon views wealth inequality as a major economic problem in America. Dimon now warns that the rich Americans have been getting wea