2018-06-08 13:35:00 Fri ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects subsequent rate increases in September and December 2018 to dampen inflationary pressures. This decision reflects robust economic revival in America. With sound price stability, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment with 2.1% inflation and 3.8% unemployment (i.e. the lowest unemployment rate since 2000). The current real economic growth trajectory accords with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
The Federal Reserve pencils in subsequent interest rate hikes later in 2018 (2%-2.25% in September 2018 and then 2.25%-2.5% in December 2018). This gradual acceleration of interest rate increases helps contain inflation with steady gains in the labor market. The current interest rate hike might disappoint President Trump who would otherwise prefer dovish monetary policy accommodation (in contrast to hawkish inflation containment).
However, the Federal Reserve reiterates monetary policy independence and thus continues the current interest rate hike as the U.S. economy moves along the long-run steady-state economic growth path of healthy fundamental recalibration. On balance, it is now quite plausible for America to achieve 3%+ real GDP economic growth to better balance the U.S. fiscal budget that helps neutralize both trade and budget deficits in the medium term.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-05-13 12:38:00 Monday ET
Brent crude oil prices spike to $70-$75 per barrel after the Trump administration stops waiving economic sanctions on Iranian oil exports. U.S. State Secret
2022-04-05 17:39:00 Tuesday ET
Corporate diversification theory and evidence A recent strand of corporate diversification literature spans at least three generations. The first generat
2020-01-08 08:25:00 Wednesday ET
Conservative Party wins the British parliamentary majority in the general election with hefty British pound appreciation. In response to this general electi
2023-02-28 10:27:00 Tuesday ET
Basic income reforms can contribute to better health care, public infrastructure, education, technology, and residential protection. Philippe Van Parijs
2019-02-25 12:41:00 Monday ET
Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy in addition to open markets and states. Rajan suggests
2018-07-11 09:39:00 Wednesday ET
In recent times, the Trump administration sees the sweet state of U.S. economic expansion as of early-July 2018. The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey