2018-06-08 13:35:00 Fri ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects subsequent rate increases in September and December 2018 to dampen inflationary pressures. This decision reflects robust economic revival in America. With sound price stability, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment with 2.1% inflation and 3.8% unemployment (i.e. the lowest unemployment rate since 2000). The current real economic growth trajectory accords with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
The Federal Reserve pencils in subsequent interest rate hikes later in 2018 (2%-2.25% in September 2018 and then 2.25%-2.5% in December 2018). This gradual acceleration of interest rate increases helps contain inflation with steady gains in the labor market. The current interest rate hike might disappoint President Trump who would otherwise prefer dovish monetary policy accommodation (in contrast to hawkish inflation containment).
However, the Federal Reserve reiterates monetary policy independence and thus continues the current interest rate hike as the U.S. economy moves along the long-run steady-state economic growth path of healthy fundamental recalibration. On balance, it is now quite plausible for America to achieve 3%+ real GDP economic growth to better balance the U.S. fiscal budget that helps neutralize both trade and budget deficits in the medium term.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-02-07 07:25:00 Thursday ET
President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism. The Trump administration seems to prefer bilateral negotiat
2019-01-01 03:34:48 Tuesday ET
American allies assist AT&T and Verizon in implementing 5G telecommunication technology in the U.S. as such allies ban the use of HuaWei 5G telecom equi
2020-11-03 08:30:00 Tuesday ET
Agile lean enterprises break down organizational silos to promote smart collaboration for better profitability and customer loyalty. Heidi Gardner (2017
2023-09-07 11:30:00 Thursday ET
Michael Woodford provides the theoretical foundations of monetary policy rules in ever more efficient financial markets. Michael Woodford (2003)
2019-08-07 08:32:00 Wednesday ET
Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the current global economic outlook. As of Summer-Fall 2019, the current analytic report focuses o
2022-03-15 10:32:00 Tuesday ET
Capital structure theory and practice The genesis of modern capital structure theory traces back to the seminal work of Modigliani and Miller (1958