2018-06-08 13:35:00 Fri ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects subsequent rate increases in September and December 2018 to dampen inflationary pressures. This decision reflects robust economic revival in America. With sound price stability, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment with 2.1% inflation and 3.8% unemployment (i.e. the lowest unemployment rate since 2000). The current real economic growth trajectory accords with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
The Federal Reserve pencils in subsequent interest rate hikes later in 2018 (2%-2.25% in September 2018 and then 2.25%-2.5% in December 2018). This gradual acceleration of interest rate increases helps contain inflation with steady gains in the labor market. The current interest rate hike might disappoint President Trump who would otherwise prefer dovish monetary policy accommodation (in contrast to hawkish inflation containment).
However, the Federal Reserve reiterates monetary policy independence and thus continues the current interest rate hike as the U.S. economy moves along the long-run steady-state economic growth path of healthy fundamental recalibration. On balance, it is now quite plausible for America to achieve 3%+ real GDP economic growth to better balance the U.S. fiscal budget that helps neutralize both trade and budget deficits in the medium term.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2022-02-05 09:26:00 Saturday ET
Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance Shiller, R.J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economi
2018-06-09 16:40:00 Saturday ET
The Trump administration introduces new tariffs on $50 billion Chinese goods amid the persistent bilateral trade dispute. The tariffs effectively boost cost
2018-08-25 12:33:00 Saturday ET
President Trump warns Google, Facebook, and Twitter that these tech titans now tread on troublesome territory. Specifically, Trump accuses Google of rigging
2018-03-15 07:41:00 Thursday ET
The Trump administration's $1.5 trillion hefty tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures may speed up the Federal Reserve interest rate hike
2022-11-05 11:32:00 Saturday ET
CEO overconfidence and corporate performance Malmendier and Tate (JFE 2008, JF 2005) argue that overconfident CEOs are more likely to initiate mergers an
2019-05-05 10:34:00 Sunday ET
Former Vice President Joe Biden enters the next U.S. presidential race with many moderate-to-progressive policy proposals. At the age of 76, Biden stands ou