2017-12-14 12:41:00 Thu ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Federal Reserve raises the interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.25% to 1.5% as FOMC members revise up their GDP estimate from 2% to 2.5%. These relevant monetary policy events unravel in response to the Yellen legacy and the Trump administration's accommodative fiscal stimulus. Although U.S. inflation gets a modest boost from 1.6% to 1.7%, this current forecast for 2018 remains below the 2% neutral target. Furthermore, FOMC members note that the labor market continues to improve near full employment. This upgrade suggests that most state-specific job conditions will further strengthen in 2018.
As Fed Chair Janet Yellen confirms with her successor Jerome Powell the final interest rate hike in December 2017, she has left a key monetary policy legacy in U.S. history. She has successfully steered the U.S. economy out of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, and has applied her dovish acumen to normalize U.S. monetary policy post-QE to attain full employment, low inflation, and sound financial stability. Powell should thank Yellen for this benign inheritance at the Federal Reserve.
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