Berkeley macro economist Brad DeLong sees no good reasons for an imminent economic recession with mass unemployment and even depression.

Laura Hermes

2019-11-21 11:34:00 Thu ET

Berkeley macro economist Brad DeLong sees no good reasons for an imminent economic recession with mass unemployment and even depression. The current U.S. economic expansion can be sustainable over the longer run when the Trump administration helps direct people and resources from low to high-marginal-return productive activities. There is no clear sign of an economic recession with higher unemployment in light of moderate wage inflation, low price inflation below the 2% target, and reasonable real economic output. These fundamental considerations suggest that the current U.S. economic boom is likely to sustain at least over the medium term.

However, envy and greed are often the muses that almost always convince some stock market investors to buy equity stakes at the peak of an asset bubble. Later these stock market investors would wonder why there are no hints of the probable risks or black swans. The same economic rationale also applies to more generic investors who retain an active interest in bonds, currencies, futures, and precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum etc.

As the Federal Reserve maintains the current dovish interest rate adjustments with Treasury fiscal stimulus packages such as tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, an economic recession cannot be imminent under normal labor market conditions.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

San Francisco Fed CEO Mary Daly suggests that trade escalation is not the only risk in the global economy.

Rose Prince

2019-06-19 09:27:00 Wednesday ET

San Francisco Fed CEO Mary Daly suggests that trade escalation is not the only risk in the global economy.

San Francisco Fed CEO Mary Daly suggests that trade escalation is not the only risk in the global economy. Due to the current Sino-U.S. trade tension, the g

+See More

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg delves into how we can change our lives for the better by mastering our habits from day to day.

Monica McNeil

2025-06-05 00:00:00 Thursday ET

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg delves into how we can change our lives for the better by mastering our habits from day to day.

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg describes, discusses, and delves into how we can change our respective lives

+See More

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance (Part 1)

Laura Hermes

2022-02-05 09:26:00 Saturday ET

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance (Part 1)

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance   Shiller, R.J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economi

+See More

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

Fiona Sydney

2019-08-02 17:39:00 Friday ET

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disa

+See More

Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin press the case for GOP tax legislation.

Jonah Whanau

2017-10-15 07:38:00 Sunday ET

Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin press the case for GOP tax legislation.

Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both press the case for GOP tax legislation as economic relief for the middle-class without substantial t

+See More

New York Fed CEO John Williams listens to sharp share price declines as part of the data-dependent interest rate policy.

Dan Rochefort

2019-01-02 06:28:00 Wednesday ET

New York Fed CEO John Williams listens to sharp share price declines as part of the data-dependent interest rate policy.

New York Fed CEO John Williams listens to sharp share price declines as part of the data-dependent interest rate policy. The Federal Reserve can respond to

+See More