2019-11-21 11:34:00 Thu ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Berkeley macro economist Brad DeLong sees no good reasons for an imminent economic recession with mass unemployment and even depression. The current U.S. economic expansion can be sustainable over the longer run when the Trump administration helps direct people and resources from low to high-marginal-return productive activities. There is no clear sign of an economic recession with higher unemployment in light of moderate wage inflation, low price inflation below the 2% target, and reasonable real economic output. These fundamental considerations suggest that the current U.S. economic boom is likely to sustain at least over the medium term.
However, envy and greed are often the muses that almost always convince some stock market investors to buy equity stakes at the peak of an asset bubble. Later these stock market investors would wonder why there are no hints of the probable risks or black swans. The same economic rationale also applies to more generic investors who retain an active interest in bonds, currencies, futures, and precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum etc.
As the Federal Reserve maintains the current dovish interest rate adjustments with Treasury fiscal stimulus packages such as tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, an economic recession cannot be imminent under normal labor market conditions.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-05-08 13:39:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump administration weighs the pros and cons of a potential mega merger between AT&T and Time Warner. Recent stock prices show favorable trends for
2023-06-28 09:29:00 Wednesday ET

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff delve into several centuries of cross-country crisis data to find the key root causes of financial crises for asset marke
2019-11-23 08:33:00 Saturday ET

MIT financial economist Simon Johnson rethinks capitalism with better key market incentives. Johnson refers to the recent Business Roundtable CEO statement
2019-02-28 20:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube February 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of February 2019: (1) our proprieta
2017-12-15 07:42:00 Friday ET

Disney acquires 21st Century Fox in a $52 billion landmark deal. This deal has a total value of about $66 billion while Disney assumes $14 billion of Fox
2025-10-03 10:31:00 Friday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund