Quantitative fundamental analysis
Our new podcast deep-dives into the pros and cons, costs and benefits, and policy implications of increasingly higher stock market concentration in America. This new vitally important mega trend has profound policy implications for stock market investors worldwide. This fundamental analysis shines new light on the recent contrast between value and growth stocks. In recent times, the current higher stock market valuations of the Magnificent 7 tech titans now appear to embed greater growth expectations in relation to the recent AI-led stock market rally. From Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft to Meta and Google, these tech titans rely upon the steady flows of high-end semiconductor microchips, graphical processing units (GPU), and several other quantum advances to make iterative continuous improvements for their Generative AI large language models (Gen AI LLM). As of mid-March 2025, we believe the current Gen AI LLM bellwethers include: Google Gemini, Meta Llama, Microsoft-OpenAI ChatGPT, Anthropic Claude, Perplexity, Alibaba Qwen, DeepSeek, Amazon Nova, Mistral, and Twitter xAI Grok.
$IONQ $ZIM $DOCU $ORCL $CSCO $NET $CRWD $AMC $PARA $AEO $WLY $SNOW $GRAL $NVO $V
$MA $AXP $PNC $MS $GS $HPE $IBM $MRK $LLY $GSK $BMY $JNJ $PYPL $PLTR $T $TMUS $VZ $C
$MAC $AMGN $RAIL $QABA $DADA $PACK $LAKE $LCID $F $GM $TM $STLA $NIO $RIVN $XPEV $Z
This fun podcast is about 10 minutes long (with smart AI podcast generation from Google NotebookLM).
https://bit.ly/3F1fpgN
In recent years, S&P 500 stock market returns exhibit spectacular concentration in the top tech titans Meta ($META), Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), Google ($GOOG), Amazon ($AMZN), Nvidia ($NVDA), and Tesla ($TSLA), also known as MAMGANT or Magnificent 7. In the past years from January 2022 to December 2024, the Magnificent 7 delivered a hefty stock market return of 41% (versus only 17% for the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 index). As of early-March 2025, the S&P 500 index shows substantial stock market concentration. Specifically, the top 10 stocks account for more than 35% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Historically, the top 10 stocks represented more than 20% of S&P 500 market capitalization over the past few decades. Further, the market capitalization of the largest stock relative to the top quartile stock now shows the highest level of stock market concentration since 1932. Although there has been no clear relationship between stock market concentration and near-term return performance, some economists and institutional investors express their concern about increasingly higher stock market concentration in NYSE and Nasdaq. Solid sales and profits in Corporate America can help substantially boost the S&P 500 index, perhaps from 6,000 points to 6,500 points, in the next few years. In this positive light, we can expect S&P 500 stocks, specifically the Magnificent 7 tech titans, to out-perform with a hefty 9% average return per annum in the next few years. Our fundamental analysis combines our proprietary alpha stock signals with ESG scores to lend credence to some of the tech titans in S&P 500 and more broadly Corporate America, especially the top tech titans with significant AI-driven technological advancements.
Stock market investors need not worry about higher market concentration in the longer term. American history shows that high stock market concentration usually leads to lower average returns ceteris paribus over longer investment horizons. When we add market concentration as a distinct variable to the long-run stock market return model, the model forecasts average S&P 500 annual returns of 3%-5% in each decade. Although this subpar return performance falls short of the historical average return of 11% for S&P 500, this drag on long-run returns arises from the greater volatility of tech titan stock returns. In recent times, the current higher stock market valuations of the Magnificent 7 tech titans now appear to embed greater growth expectations in relation to the recent AI-led stock market rally. From Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), and Microsoft ($MSFT) to Meta ($META) and Google ($GOOG), these tech titans rely upon the steady flows of high-end semiconductor microchips, graphical processing units (GPU), and several other quantum advances to make iterative continuous improvements for their Generative AI large language models (Gen AI LLM). As of mid-March 2025, we believe the current Gen AI LLM bellwethers include: Google Gemini, Meta Llama, Microsoft-OpenAI ChatGPT, Anthropic Claude, Perplexity, Alibaba Qwen, DeepSeek, Amazon Nova, Mistral, and Twitter xAI Grok.
After all, stock market concentration per se should not be a major concern for U.S. investors. This concentration often turns out to be a mainstream mechanical result of winner-takes-all sales and profits in AI-driven markets such as Internet search, text, voice, vision, video, and some smart combinations of these common forms of content generation. Specifically, stock market concentration need not heighten the 2 key types of stock market risks: fundamental risks and disequilibrium risks. The former relate to unlikely structural declines in fundamental sales and profits for S&P 500 tech titans, and the latter relate to short-term deviations from fair market values. Although some of the S&P 500 tech stocks seem to reach a new steady state of stock market over-valuation, we believe the vast majority of S&P 500 tech titans can benefit substantially from the broader AI stock market rally to explore new niche markets for both institutional investors and retail investors. In a positive light, stock market concentration need not be a major concern for U.S. investors in a fundamental view. However, we believe U.S. investors should refrain from placing big bets on the recent extreme winners, because their substantially higher market valuations may or may not justify their fundamental forces in the broader context of medium-term competitive threats. At least some of the recent AI-driven winners cannot sustain their greater growth expectations and longer-term competitive advantages. It takes time for U.S. investors to better assess whether each of these AI-driven winners passes the baseline proof of concept for the optimal product-market fit.
Over the past 60 years, no more than 3% of S&P 500 companies were able to sustain 20%+ sales growth for 10 consecutive years. We can back up this empirical result with Jim Collins’s seminal research on what makes great companies tick in his strategic management books: Built to Last, Good to Great, Great by Choice, and Beyond Entrepreneurship 2.0. Therefore, it is hard for the recent AI-driven tech winners to sustain their stock market outperformance in the long run. For at least some of these recent growth stocks, the probable mean reversion of returns can result in future under-performance, especially when their future fundamental sales and profits dwindle, dry up, and then fail to allow these recent winners to dominate in the respective AI-driven markets and adjacent niche segments.
The U.S. regulators should step in when the AI-driven tech titans use their market power to stave off both their rivals and competitors with higher product prices. To the extent that stock market concentration may stifle subsequent disruptive innovations, the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and Department of Justice (DoJ) etc should introduce new antitrust rules and regulations to make American tech titans face fierce competitive pressure with no clear dominance in any particular AI-driven market. The classic examples include: Apple App Store and Google Play in the mobile software market; Amazon e-commerce in the retail market for consumer goods; Nvidia GPUs, microchips, and several other hardware advances in the semiconductor industry; and Tesla in the global market for electric vehicles (EV) and autonomous robotaxis (AR).
This current high stock market concentration serves as one of the mainstream reasons for U.S. investors to further diversify exposures across asset classes, regions, and strategies. The historically optimal portfolio mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds remains empirically valid, relevant, profitable, and reasonable in a fundamental view. In light of the still-solid sales and profits in the AI-driven sections of Corporate America, we believe the optimal portfolio combo of 60% stocks and 40% bonds continues to serve as the mainstream economic engine for the global asset management industry, specifically BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard. U.S. investors need to revisit their optimal choices of AI-driven stocks with new fundamental competitive moats, substantial safety margins, positive network effects, cost economies, and information cascades.
Below we provide hyperlinks to many other recent podcasts, surveys, research articles, and blog posts on global macro-finance, asset return prediction, trade, technology, fiscal-monetary policy coordination, and fundamental industry analysis for stock market investors worldwide. Key technological advancements include generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) large language models (LLM), electric vehicles (EV), autonomous robotaxis (AR), virtual reality (VR) headsets, semiconductor microchips, high-speed broadband networks, telecoms, cloud services, social media platforms, quantum computers, and pharmaceutical treatments, medications, and therapies.
Former New York Times science author and Harvard social psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why emotional intelligence often serves as a more important critical success factor than high IQ for our success, virtue, and happiness in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.
Former New York Times prolific team author, and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg delves into how we can change our lives for the better by mastering our habits from day to day.
Serial venture capitalist Ben Horowitz describes many hard truths, lessons, and insights from his rare unique entrepreneurial journey of running LoudCloud from a Silicon Valley tech startup to a $1.65 billion sale to Hewlett-Packard.
Stanford psychology professor Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the reasons why the growth mindset helps motivate individuals, teams, and senior managers to accomplish more with greater grit, focus, and resilience.
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Today, tech titans, billionaires, serial entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists continue to reshape and even disrupt global pharmaceutical investments for both better healthspan and longer lifespan.
Artificial intelligence continues to reshape the current global market for better biotech advances, medical innovations, and healthcare services.
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Is higher stock market concentration good or bad for Corporate America?
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The new homeland industrial policy stance tilts toward greater global resilience across the major high-tech supply chains worldwide.
China poses new threats to the U.S. and its western allies.
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Both BYD and Tesla have become serious global manufacturers of electric vehicles (EV) worldwide.
With U.S. fintech patent approval, accreditation, and protection for 20 years, our AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools for stock market investors worldwide.
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Is higher stock market concentration good or bad for Corporate America? - Blog - AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools for stock market investors.
This article delves into the pros and cons of increasingly higher stock market concentration in Amer...
https://ayafintech.network/blog/is-higher-stock-market-concentration-good-or-bad-for-corporate-america/
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