2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.
Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2020-10-13 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Agile lean enterprises strive to design radical business models to remain competitive in the face of nimble startups and megatrends. Carsten Linz, Gunter
2019-12-28 09:36:00 Saturday ET

Global debt surges to $250 trillion in the fiscal year 2019. The International Institute of Finance analytic report shows that both China and the U.S. accou
2023-08-28 08:26:00 Monday ET

Jared Diamond delves into how some societies fail, succeed, and revive in global human history. Jared Diamond (2004) Collapse: how societies
2019-02-28 12:39:00 Thursday ET

New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear. After raising the interest
2018-02-11 07:30:00 Sunday ET

President Trump unveils his ambitious $1.5 trillion public infrastructure plan. Trump proposes offering $100 billion in federal incentives to encourage stat
2019-06-23 08:30:00 Sunday ET

The financial crisis of 2008-2009 affects many millennials as they bear the primary costs of college tuition, residential demand, health care, and childcare