U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.

Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing announces his retirement in March 2018 with an incredible rags-to-riches life story.

John Fourier

2018-03-11 08:27:00 Sunday ET

Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing announces his retirement in March 2018 with an incredible rags-to-riches life story.

At 89 years old, Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing announces his retirement in March 2018. With a personal net worth of $35 billion, Li has an incredible ra

+See More

Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal growth, success, virtue, happiness, and fulfillment in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Jonah Whanau

2025-06-28 10:39:00 Saturday ET

Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal growth, success, virtue, happiness, and fulfillment in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Former New York Times science author and Harvard psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal

+See More

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide.

James Campbell

2023-04-21 12:39:00 Friday ET

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide.

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide. Angus Deaton (2015)  

+See More

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg delves into how we can change our lives for the better by mastering our habits from day to day.

Monica McNeil

2025-06-05 00:00:00 Thursday ET

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg delves into how we can change our lives for the better by mastering our habits from day to day.

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg describes, discusses, and delves into how we can change our respective lives

+See More

The U.S. further derisks and decouples from China.

Peter Prince

2023-05-31 03:15:40 Wednesday ET

The U.S. further derisks and decouples from China.

The U.S. further derisks and decouples from China.   Why does the U.S. seek to further economically decouple from China? In recent times, th

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Amy Hamilton

2019-04-30 19:46:00 Tuesday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube April 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of April 2019: (1) Our proprietary

+See More