U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.

Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Higher public debt levels, interest rate hikes, and subpar Chinese economic growth rates are the major risks to the world economy.

Daphne Basel

2019-01-23 11:32:00 Wednesday ET

Higher public debt levels, interest rate hikes, and subpar Chinese economic growth rates are the major risks to the world economy.

Higher public debt levels, global interest rate hikes, and subpar Chinese economic growth rates are the major risks to the world economy from 2019 to 2020.

+See More

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years.

Monica McNeil

2019-10-25 07:49:00 Friday ET

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years.

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years. The current U.S. Treasury fiscal budget deficit rises from $779 billion to $1.0

+See More

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Saturday ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has

+See More

China, Russia, France, Germany, and Japan may dethrone the petrodollar.

Jacob Miramar

2018-07-01 08:34:00 Sunday ET

China, Russia, France, Germany, and Japan may dethrone the petrodollar.

Are China and Russia etc gonna dethrone the petrodollar? Over the years, China, Russia, France, Germany, and Japan have made numerous attempts to use their

+See More

Citron Research short-sellers initiate a class-action lawsuit against Tesla and its executive chairman Elon Musk.

Monica McNeil

2018-09-05 08:34:00 Wednesday ET

Citron Research short-sellers initiate a class-action lawsuit against Tesla and its executive chairman Elon Musk.

Citron Research short-sellers initiate a class-action lawsuit against Tesla and its executive chairman Elon Musk because he might have deliberately orchestr

+See More

The Economist highlights a trifecta of plausible explanations for better economic fortunes during the current Trump administration.

Chanel Holden

2018-08-27 09:35:00 Monday ET

The Economist highlights a trifecta of plausible explanations for better economic fortunes during the current Trump administration.

President Trump and his Republican senators and supporters praise the recent economic revival of most American counties. The Economist highlights a trifecta

+See More