2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.
Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-06-15 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliate
2025-01-22 08:35:08 Wednesday ET

President Donald Trump blames China for the long prevalent U.S. trade deficits and several other social and economic deficiencies. In recent years, Pres
2019-09-25 15:33:00 Wednesday ET

Product market competition and online e-commerce help constrain money supply growth with low inflation. Key e-commerce retailers such as Amazon, Alibaba, an
2018-09-27 11:41:00 Thursday ET

Michael Kors pays $2.3 billion to acquire the Italian elite fashion brand Versace. In accordance with Michael Kors's 5-year plan, the joint company grow
2018-10-09 08:40:00 Tuesday ET

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) appoints Harvard professor Gita Gopinath as its chief economist. Gopinath follows her PhD advisor and trailblazer Kenn
2019-11-05 07:41:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump administration expects to reach an interim partial trade deal with China. This interim partial trade deal represents the first phase of a comprehe