U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.

Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Sirius XM pays $3.5 billion shares to acquire the music app company Pandora.

Jonah Whanau

2018-09-25 10:35:00 Tuesday ET

Sirius XM pays $3.5 billion shares to acquire the music app company Pandora.

Sirius XM pays $3.5 billion shares to acquire the music app company Pandora. This acquisition would form the largest audio entertainment company worldwide.

+See More

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

Fiona Sydney

2019-08-02 17:39:00 Friday ET

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disa

+See More

Credit supply growth drives business cycle fluctuations and often sows the seeds of their own subsequent destruction.

Fiona Sydney

2018-04-26 07:37:00 Thursday ET

Credit supply growth drives business cycle fluctuations and often sows the seeds of their own subsequent destruction.

Credit supply growth drives business cycle fluctuations and often sows the seeds of their own subsequent destruction. The global financial crisis from 2008

+See More

Bank failure resolution and financial risk management: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank.

Dan Rochefort

2023-05-27 11:30:00 Saturday ET

Bank failure resolution and financial risk management: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank.

Bank failure resolution and financial risk management: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank.   What are the main root cau

+See More

Janet Yellen worries about U.S. government debt accumulation, expects new interest rate increases, and warns of the next economic recession.

Amy Hamilton

2018-11-05 10:40:00 Monday ET

Janet Yellen worries about U.S. government debt accumulation, expects new interest rate increases, and warns of the next economic recession.

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen worries about U.S. government debt accumulation, expects new interest rate increases, and warns of the next economic recession

+See More

Warren Buffett places his $58 billion stock bets on Apple, American Express, and Goldman Sachs.

Rose Prince

2019-04-05 08:25:00 Friday ET

Warren Buffett places his $58 billion stock bets on Apple, American Express, and Goldman Sachs.

Warren Buffett places his $58 billion stock bets on Apple, American Express, and Goldman Sachs. Berkshire Hathaway owns $18 billion equity stakes in America

+See More