U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.

Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Jared Diamond delves into how some societies fail, succeed, and revive in global human history.

Becky Berkman

2023-08-28 08:26:00 Monday ET

Jared Diamond delves into how some societies fail, succeed, and revive in global human history.

Jared Diamond delves into how some societies fail, succeed, and revive in global human history. Jared Diamond (2004)   Collapse: how societies

+See More

Would you rather receive $1,000 each day for one month or a magic penny that doubles each day over the same month?

Laura Hermes

2017-04-07 15:34:00 Friday ET

Would you rather receive $1,000 each day for one month or a magic penny that doubles each day over the same month?

Would you rather receive $1,000 each day for one month or a magic penny that doubles each day over the same month? At first glance, this counterintuitive

+See More

Dr Chip Espinoza recommends 9 new core competences for better managing millennials in the modern workplace.

Rose Prince

2025-08-02 13:31:00 Saturday ET

Dr Chip Espinoza recommends 9 new core competences for better managing millennials in the modern workplace.

Chip Espinoza, Mick Ukleja, and Craig Rusch shine fresh light on the core competences for managing millennials as part of the new modern workforce in recent

+See More

President Trump signs an executive order to freeze federal employee pay in early-2019.

Rose Prince

2019-01-06 08:39:00 Sunday ET

President Trump signs an executive order to freeze federal employee pay in early-2019.

President Trump signs an executive order to freeze federal employee pay in early-2019. Federal employees face furlough or work without pay due to the govern

+See More

America and China cannot decouple decades of long-term collaboration in trade, finance, and technology.

Becky Berkman

2019-12-16 11:37:00 Monday ET

America and China cannot decouple decades of long-term collaboration in trade, finance, and technology.

America and China cannot decouple decades of long-term collaboration in trade, finance, and technology. In recent times, some economists claim that China ma

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of T-Mobile (U.S. stock symbol: $TMUS).

James Campbell

2025-10-06 10:27:00 Monday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of T-Mobile (U.S. stock symbol: $TMUS).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More