U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.

Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Thomas Piketty empirically shows that the top 1% cohort rakes in 20%+ of U.S. national income.

Daisy Harvey

2018-09-01 07:34:00 Saturday ET

Thomas Piketty empirically shows that the top 1% cohort rakes in 20%+ of U.S. national income.

As the French economist who studies global economic inequality in his recent book *Capital in the New Century*, Thomas Piketty co-authors with John Bates Cl

+See More

Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy in early-October 2018.

Charlene Vos

2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wednesday ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy in early-October 2018.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly su

+See More

Agile business firms beat the odds by building faster institutional reflexes to anticipate plausible economic scenarios.

Fiona Sydney

2020-09-03 10:26:00 Thursday ET

Agile business firms beat the odds by building faster institutional reflexes to anticipate plausible economic scenarios.

Agile business firms beat the odds by building faster institutional reflexes to anticipate plausible economic scenarios. Christopher Worley, Thomas Willi

+See More

William Easterly critiques several economic development policies and then indicates that bottom-up solutions often result in macro policy success in spite of nation states.

John Fourier

2023-05-07 10:27:00 Sunday ET

William Easterly critiques several economic development policies and then indicates that bottom-up solutions often result in macro policy success in spite of nation states.

William Easterly critiques several economic development policies and then indicates that bottom-up solutions often result in macro policy success in spite o

+See More

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit.

Joseph Corr

2019-08-04 08:26:00 Sunday ET

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit.

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit in Japan.

+See More

The financial services industry needs fewer banks worldwide.

Daphne Basel

2022-08-30 10:32:00 Tuesday ET

The financial services industry needs fewer banks worldwide.

The financial services industry needs fewer banks worldwide. As long as banks have existed in human history, their managers have realized how not all dep

+See More