2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.
Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2025-08-02 13:31:00 Saturday ET

Chip Espinoza, Mick Ukleja, and Craig Rusch shine fresh light on the core competences for managing millennials as part of the new modern workforce in recent
2017-02-25 06:44:00 Saturday ET

As the White House economic director, Gary Cohn suggests that the Trump administration will tackle tax cuts after the administration *repeals and replaces*
2023-05-31 11:27:00 Wednesday ET

What are the top global risks in trade, finance, and technology? In this macro report, we focus on the current global risks from inflation and growth con
2023-12-05 09:25:00 Tuesday ET

Better corporate ownership governance through worldwide convergence toward Berle-Means stock ownership dispersion Abstract We design a model
2017-12-19 09:39:00 Tuesday ET

From Oprah Winfrey to Bill Gates, this infographic visualization summarizes the key habits and investment styles of highly successful entrepreneurs:
2025-10-03 10:31:00 Friday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund