2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.
Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-09-19 12:38:00 Wednesday ET

The Trump administration imposes 10% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports and expects to raise these tariffs to 25% additional duties toward the end of t
2025-10-13 12:32:00 Monday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund
2019-04-23 19:45:00 Tuesday ET

Income and wealth concentration follows the ebbs and flows of the business cycle in America. Economic inequality not only grows among people, but it also gr
2019-05-30 16:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube May 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of May 2019: (1) Our proprietary alp
2018-04-05 07:42:00 Thursday ET

CNBC news anchor Becky Quick interviews Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett in light of the recent stock market gyrations and movements. Warren Buffett
2023-09-14 09:28:00 Thursday ET

Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Matthew Rabin assess the recent advances in the behavioral economic science. Colin Camerer, George Loewenstei