U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.

Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

CEO overconfidence and corporate performance

Laura Hermes

2022-11-05 11:32:00 Saturday ET

CEO overconfidence and corporate performance

CEO overconfidence and corporate performance Malmendier and Tate (JFE 2008, JF 2005) argue that overconfident CEOs are more likely to initiate mergers an

+See More

Higher public debt levels, interest rate hikes, and subpar Chinese economic growth rates are the major risks to the world economy.

Daphne Basel

2019-01-23 11:32:00 Wednesday ET

Higher public debt levels, interest rate hikes, and subpar Chinese economic growth rates are the major risks to the world economy.

Higher public debt levels, global interest rate hikes, and subpar Chinese economic growth rates are the major risks to the world economy from 2019 to 2020.

+See More

The global asset management industry is central to modern capitalism.

Amy Hamilton

2022-02-22 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

The global asset management industry is central to modern capitalism.

The global asset management industry is central to modern capitalism. Mutual funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowment trusts, and asset ma

+See More

Most artificial intelligence applications cannot figure out the intricate nuances of natural language and facial recognition.

Fiona Sydney

2019-09-01 10:31:00 Sunday ET

Most artificial intelligence applications cannot figure out the intricate nuances of natural language and facial recognition.

Most artificial intelligence applications cannot figure out the intricate nuances of natural language and facial recognition. These intricate nuances repres

+See More

President Donald Trump releases his plan to slash income taxes for U.S. citizens and corporations.

Jacob Miramar

2017-09-03 10:44:00 Sunday ET

President Donald Trump releases his plan to slash income taxes for U.S. citizens and corporations.

President Donald Trump has released his plan to slash income taxes for U.S. citizens and corporations. The corporate income tax rate will decline from 35% t

+See More

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is India's equivalent to Warren Buffett in America.

Jonah Whanau

2016-10-19 00:00:00 Wednesday ET

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is India's equivalent to Warren Buffett in America.

India's equivalent to Warren Buffett in America, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, offers several key lessons for stock market investors: When the press o

+See More