U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years.

Jonah Whanau

2019-08-03 09:28:00 Sat ET

U.S. inflation has become sustainably less than the 2% policy target in recent years. As Harvard macro economist Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s. The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next likely rise in inflation. This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. In New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.

Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to attempting to stabilize both deviations of general prices and economic output gaps from the respective targets. Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization principle as the divine coincidence. Nevertheless, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market frictions. On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Fiona Sydney

2019-04-15 08:37:00 Monday ET

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy. Chinese Be

+See More

White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow points out that the recent U.S. dollar strength shows a clear sign of investor optimism.

James Campbell

2018-08-13 12:39:00 Monday ET

White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow points out that the recent U.S. dollar strength shows a clear sign of investor optimism.

White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow points out that the recent U.S. dollar strength shows a clear sign of investor confidence and optimism. Gree

+See More

New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear.

Joseph Corr

2019-02-28 12:39:00 Thursday ET

New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear.

New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear. After raising the interest

+See More

President-Elect Donald Trump wants Apple and its tech peers to consider better and greater high-tech job creation in America.

James Campbell

2017-01-03 03:26:00 Tuesday ET

President-Elect Donald Trump wants Apple and its tech peers to consider better and greater high-tech job creation in America.

President-Elect Donald Trump wants Apple and its tech peers to consider better and greater high-tech job creation in America. Apple has asked its primary

+See More

President Trump imposes punitive tariffs on $60 billion Chinese imports in a brand-new trade war.

Laura Hermes

2018-03-25 08:39:00 Sunday ET

President Trump imposes punitive tariffs on $60 billion Chinese imports in a brand-new trade war.

President Trump imposes punitive tariffs on $60 billion Chinese imports in a brand-new trade war as China hits back with retaliatory tariffs on $3 billion U

+See More

President Trump is open to extending the March 2019 deadline for raising tariffs on Chinese imports.

Peter Prince

2019-02-15 11:33:00 Friday ET

President Trump is open to extending the March 2019 deadline for raising tariffs on Chinese imports.

President Trump is open to extending the March 2019 deadline for raising tariffs on Chinese imports if both sides are close to mutual agreement. These bilat

+See More