2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-08-09 18:35:00 Friday ET
Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups; whereas, the government should now reassert itself in terms o
2022-11-15 10:30:00 Tuesday ET
Stock market misvaluation and corporate investment payout The behavioral catering theory suggests that stock market misvaluation can have a first-order
2020-04-17 07:23:00 Friday ET
Clayton Christensen defines and delves into the core dilemma of corporate innovation with sustainable and disruptive advances. Clayton Christensen (2000)
2018-11-13 12:30:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump promises a great trade deal with China as Americans mull over mid-term elections. President Trump wants to reach a trade accord with Chinese
2020-04-24 11:33:00 Friday ET
Disruptive innovations tend to contribute to business success in new blue-ocean markets after iterative continuous improvements. Clayton Christensen and
2020-04-03 09:28:00 Friday ET
The Intel trinity of Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove establishes the primary semiconductor tech titan in Silicon Valley. Michael Malone (2014)