2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-11-03 12:30:00 Sunday ET
Chinese trade delegation offers to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products to reach an interim trade deal with the Trump administration. Chinese Vice
2019-01-06 08:39:00 Sunday ET
President Trump signs an executive order to freeze federal employee pay in early-2019. Federal employees face furlough or work without pay due to the govern
2019-08-07 08:32:00 Wednesday ET
Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the current global economic outlook. As of Summer-Fall 2019, the current analytic report focuses o
2018-11-03 11:36:00 Saturday ET
Apple adds fresh features to its new iPad Pro and MacBook Air in addition to its prior suite of iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and iPhone XR back in September 20
2018-01-15 07:35:00 Monday ET
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin welcomes a weak U.S. dollar amid pervasive fears of an open trade war between America and China. At the World Economic For
2016-10-01 00:00:00 Saturday ET
We can learn much from the frugal habits and lifestyles of several billionaires on earth. Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, still l