2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-11-24 08:41:00 Friday ET
Is Bitcoin a legitimate (crypto)currency or a new bubble waiting to implode? As its prices skyrocket, bankers, pundits, and investors increasingly take side
2019-09-15 14:35:00 Sunday ET
U.S. Treasury officially designates China a key currency manipulator in the broader context of Sino-American trade dispute resolution. The U.S. Treasury cla
2018-01-25 08:32:00 Thursday ET
After its flagship iPhone X launch, Apple reports its highest quarterly sales revenue over $80 billion in the tech titan's 41-year history. Apple expect
2018-05-03 07:34:00 Thursday ET
Sprint and T-Mobile propose a major merger in order to better compete with AT&T and Verizon. This mega merger is worth $26.5 billion and involves an all
2017-06-27 05:40:00 Tuesday ET
These famous quotes of self-made billionaires are inspirational words of wisdom on financial management, innovation, and entrepreneurship. For financial
2020-09-17 12:28:00 Thursday ET
Many successful business organizations develop their distinctive capabilities and unique value propositions for strategic reasons. Paul Leinwand and Cesa