2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-01-21 10:37:00 Monday ET
Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube January 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues
2018-06-05 07:36:00 Tuesday ET
Just Capital issues a new report in support of the stakeholder value proposition in recent times. U.S. corporations that perform best on key priorities such
2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tuesday ET
The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward econo
2017-05-31 06:36:00 Wednesday ET
The Federal Reserve rubber-stamps the positive conclusion that all of the 34 major banks pass their annual CCAR macro stress tests for the first time since
2018-06-03 07:35:00 Sunday ET
Several recent events explain why Trump may undermine multilateral world order. First, Trump withdraws the U.S. from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership
2018-06-01 07:30:00 Friday ET
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predict