The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

Apple Boston

2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.

Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.

A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.

Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Peter Thiel shares his money views of President Trump, Facebook, Bitcoin, global finance, and trade.

Apple Boston

2018-03-05 07:34:00 Monday ET

Peter Thiel shares his money views of President Trump, Facebook, Bitcoin, global finance, and trade.

Peter Thiel shares his money views of President Trump, Facebook, Bitcoin, global finance, and trade etc. As an early technology adopter, Thiel invests in Fa

+See More

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) considers its majority vote to dismantle net neutrality rules.

John Fourier

2017-12-13 06:39:00 Wednesday ET

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) considers its majority vote to dismantle net neutrality rules.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has decided its majority vote to dismantle rules and regulations of most Internet service providers (ISPs) that

+See More

Amazon and Google face more intense antitrust scrutiny.

Apple Boston

2019-06-21 13:33:00 Friday ET

Amazon and Google face more intense antitrust scrutiny.

Amazon and Google face more intense antitrust scrutiny. In recent times, Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission have reached an internal agreement

+See More

A small fraction of the population enjoys most capital and wealth creation.

Jacob Miramar

2017-03-15 08:46:00 Wednesday ET

A small fraction of the population enjoys most capital and wealth creation.

The heuristic rule of *accumulative advantage* suggests that a small fraction of the population enjoys a large proportion of both capital and wealth creatio

+See More

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance.

Monica McNeil

2018-07-30 11:36:00 Monday ET

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance.

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance. Populist support contributes to Trump's 2016 presidential election victory

+See More

Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal growth, success, virtue, happiness, and fulfillment in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Jonah Whanau

2025-06-28 10:39:00 Saturday ET

Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal growth, success, virtue, happiness, and fulfillment in life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Former New York Times science author and Harvard psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why great mental focus serves as a vital mainstream driver of personal

+See More