2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2024-02-04 08:28:00 Sunday ET
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024. Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the ma
2019-01-11 10:33:00 Friday ET
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to track major business risks in light of volatile stock markets, elections, and geopolitics. EIU monitors g
2023-02-21 08:27:00 Tuesday ET
Mark Granovetter follows the key principles of modern economic sociology to analyze social relations and economic phenomena. Mark Granovetter (2017) &
2019-09-30 07:33:00 Monday ET
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube September 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of September 2019: (1) Former
2018-10-07 13:39:00 Sunday ET
The U.S. greenback soars in value as the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hike. With impressive service-sector data and non-farm payroll wage gro
2018-11-30 12:42:00 Friday ET
Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube November 2018 AYA Analytica is our online regular podcast and news