2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-12-11 10:34:06 Tuesday ET
Several eminent American China-specialists champion the key notion of *strategic engagement* with the Xi administration. From the Hoover Institution at Stan
2019-07-11 10:48:00 Thursday ET
France and Germany are the biggest beneficiaries of Sino-U.S. trade escalation, whereas, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan suffer from the current trade stando
2018-07-03 11:42:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump's current trade policies appear like the Reagan administration's protectionist trade policies back in the 1980s. In comparison to th
2021-02-01 10:19:00 Monday ET
In recent times, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the fiscal-debt-to-GDP ratio of most rich economies would rise from 95% in 2018 to 135%
2018-08-09 16:36:00 Thursday ET
President Trump applies an increasingly bellicose stance toward the Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani as he rejects a global agreement to curb Iran's nuclea
2020-05-05 09:31:00 Tuesday ET
Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the fundamental prospects of U.S. tech titans Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (F.A.