2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-02-09 08:33:00 Saturday ET
Apple provides positive forward guidance on both revenue and profit forecasts for iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks. In the Christmas 2018 festive season, MacBoo
2020-04-03 09:28:00 Friday ET
The Intel trinity of Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove establishes the primary semiconductor tech titan in Silicon Valley. Michael Malone (2014)
2019-05-03 11:29:00 Friday ET
Key tech unicorns blitzscale business niches for better scale economies from Uber and Lyft to Pinterest, Slack, and Zoom. LinkedIn cofounder and serial entr
2019-05-02 13:30:00 Thursday ET
Netflix has an unsustainable business model in the meantime. Netflix maintains a small premium membership fee of $9-$14 per month for its unique collection
2019-05-05 10:34:00 Sunday ET
Former Vice President Joe Biden enters the next U.S. presidential race with many moderate-to-progressive policy proposals. At the age of 76, Biden stands ou
2018-05-13 08:33:00 Sunday ET
Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance in order to stop holding the financial market's han