2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2024-04-30 09:30:00 Tuesday ET
With clean and green energy resources and electric vehicles, the global auto industry now navigates at a newer and faster pace. Both BYD and Tesla have
2017-12-19 09:39:00 Tuesday ET
From Oprah Winfrey to Bill Gates, this infographic visualization summarizes the key habits and investment styles of highly successful entrepreneurs:
2026-05-02 10:28:00 Saturday ET
Stephen Covey recommends the 8th habit for effective team leaders to find their own voices (in addition to the 7 habits of highly effective people). In esse
2019-07-11 10:48:00 Thursday ET
France and Germany are the biggest beneficiaries of Sino-U.S. trade escalation, whereas, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan suffer from the current trade stando
2026-01-19 10:30:00 Monday ET
Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network platform: major milestones, key product features, and online social media services Introduction
2019-08-02 17:39:00 Friday ET
The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disa