The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

Apple Boston

2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.

Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.

A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.

Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide.

Monica McNeil

2023-07-21 10:30:00 Friday ET

Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide.

Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide. Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton (200

+See More

New computer algorithms and passive mutual fund managers now run the stock market.

Joseph Corr

2019-11-17 14:43:00 Sunday ET

New computer algorithms and passive mutual fund managers now run the stock market.

New computer algorithms and passive mutual fund managers run the stock market. Morningstar suggests that the total dollar amount of passive equity assets re

+See More

The modern world's most powerful nations, America and China, stumble into a Thucydides trap.

Fiona Sydney

2018-05-29 11:40:00 Tuesday ET

The modern world's most powerful nations, America and China, stumble into a Thucydides trap.

America and China, the modern world's most powerful nations may stumble into a **Thucydides trap** that Harvard professor and political scientist Graham

+See More

President Donald Trump releases his plan to slash income taxes for U.S. citizens and corporations.

Jacob Miramar

2017-09-03 10:44:00 Sunday ET

President Donald Trump releases his plan to slash income taxes for U.S. citizens and corporations.

President Donald Trump has released his plan to slash income taxes for U.S. citizens and corporations. The corporate income tax rate will decline from 35% t

+See More

Disruptive innovators compete against luck by figuring out why customers hire products and services to accomplish specific jobs.

John Fourier

2020-05-14 12:35:00 Thursday ET

Disruptive innovators compete against luck by figuring out why customers hire products and services to accomplish specific jobs.

Disruptive innovators can better compete against luck by figuring out why customers hire products and services to accomplish jobs. Clayton Christensen, T

+See More

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

Apple Boston

2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tuesday ET

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasur

+See More