2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields dives below nil (i.e. the latter now exceeds the former by a positive increment). In response, Dow Jones tumbles 400 points as this brief yield curve inversion sparks recessionary concerns.
Treasury yield curve inversions have indeed preceded all of the 7 U.S. recessions since the 1970s. From a fundamental perspective, these key yield curve inversions reflect the pervasive fear that firms become reluctant to raise debt to fund positive net-present-value capital investment projects when households tend to fixate on near-term consumption with minimal leverage for longer-run investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
A flat or negative yield curve suggests that investors prefer to keep their money in short-term bonds as longer-term bonds exhibit greater reinvestment risk.
Whether the current yield curve inversion portends an economic recession in the next few years depends on the eventual resolution of economic policy uncertainty around Sino-American trade compromises, fiscal budget negotiations, and Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments from 2019 to 2020. This inversion may signal a stark sign of major economic events from a typically emphatic bellwether.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-01-29 10:33:00 Tuesday ET
Global trade transforms from labor cost arbitrage to high-skill knowledge work. In fact, multinational manufacturers have been trying to create global suppl
2018-07-03 11:42:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump's current trade policies appear like the Reagan administration's protectionist trade policies back in the 1980s. In comparison to th
2017-04-07 15:34:00 Friday ET
Would you rather receive $1,000 each day for one month or a magic penny that doubles each day over the same month? At first glance, this counterintuitive
2020-02-19 14:35:00 Wednesday ET
The U.S. bank oligarchy has become bigger, more profitable, and more resistant to public regulation after the global financial crisis. Simon Johnson and
2022-11-30 09:26:00 Wednesday ET
Climate change and ESG woke capitalism In recent times, the Biden administration has signed into law a $375 billion program to better balance the economi
2018-07-30 11:36:00 Monday ET
Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance. Populist support contributes to Trump's 2016 presidential election victory