2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward economic trajectory exceeds most stock market expectations and projections of about 2.5% real GDP growth as of 2019Q1. Moreover, this favorable rebound puts to rest prior pervasive investor fears of an economic recession. This key economic momentum arises without fresh inflationary pressure. As core CPI inflation continues to hover near the 2% target level and the U.S. economy operates with lower unemployment near 3.6%, the Federal Reserve remains patient on the next round of interest rate adjustments after mid-2019.
In the current economic scenario, there is no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment as the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) might indicate. The Phillips curve seems to substantially flatten in recent years, thus the U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. This economic outlook resonates with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. Meanwhile, the greenback depreciates a little for U.S. export prices to remain competitive in the global economic landscape. These positive economic events can contribute much to the Trump economic scorecard for his presidential re-election in 2020.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-02-11 09:37:00 Monday ET

Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and offshore cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation. Share repurchases
2018-02-03 07:42:00 Saturday ET

Quant Quake 2.0 shakes investor confidence with rampant stock market fears and doubts during the recent Fed Chair transition from Janet Yellen to Jerome Pow
2019-08-20 07:33:00 Tuesday ET

The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer. Britain appoints former London mayor and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson as the prime minis
2023-11-14 08:24:00 Tuesday ET

Thomas Sowell argues that some economic reforms inadvertently exacerbate economic disparities. Thomas Sowell (2019) Discrimination and econo
2019-04-26 09:33:00 Friday ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon defends capitalism in his recent annual letter to shareholders. As Dimon explains here, socialism inevitably produces stagnat
2025-09-14 14:23:00 Sunday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund