2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward economic trajectory exceeds most stock market expectations and projections of about 2.5% real GDP growth as of 2019Q1. Moreover, this favorable rebound puts to rest prior pervasive investor fears of an economic recession. This key economic momentum arises without fresh inflationary pressure. As core CPI inflation continues to hover near the 2% target level and the U.S. economy operates with lower unemployment near 3.6%, the Federal Reserve remains patient on the next round of interest rate adjustments after mid-2019.
In the current economic scenario, there is no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment as the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) might indicate. The Phillips curve seems to substantially flatten in recent years, thus the U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. This economic outlook resonates with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. Meanwhile, the greenback depreciates a little for U.S. export prices to remain competitive in the global economic landscape. These positive economic events can contribute much to the Trump economic scorecard for his presidential re-election in 2020.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-06-03 05:35:00 Saturday ET
Fundamental value investors, who intend to manage their stock portfolios like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, now find it more difficult to ferret out indiv
2019-12-19 14:43:00 Thursday ET
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon views wealth inequality as a major economic problem in America. Dimon now warns that the rich Americans have been getting wea
2022-02-25 00:00:00 Friday ET
Empirical tests of multi-factor models for asset return prediction The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), and Bla
2019-11-13 11:34:00 Wednesday ET
The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and economic optimism. British prime minister Boris Johnson wins the parliamentary vote on his new
2018-12-05 09:38:00 Wednesday ET
Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report. Fed Chair Jerome Powell applauds both low inflation (2%) and low unemployment (
2018-01-05 07:37:00 Friday ET
Warren Buffett cleverly points out that American children will not only be better off than their parents, but the former will also enjoy higher living stand