2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward economic trajectory exceeds most stock market expectations and projections of about 2.5% real GDP growth as of 2019Q1. Moreover, this favorable rebound puts to rest prior pervasive investor fears of an economic recession. This key economic momentum arises without fresh inflationary pressure. As core CPI inflation continues to hover near the 2% target level and the U.S. economy operates with lower unemployment near 3.6%, the Federal Reserve remains patient on the next round of interest rate adjustments after mid-2019.
In the current economic scenario, there is no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment as the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) might indicate. The Phillips curve seems to substantially flatten in recent years, thus the U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. This economic outlook resonates with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. Meanwhile, the greenback depreciates a little for U.S. export prices to remain competitive in the global economic landscape. These positive economic events can contribute much to the Trump economic scorecard for his presidential re-election in 2020.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2025-07-26 09:26:00 Saturday ET
Nir Eyal and Ryan Hoover explain why keystone habits lead us to purchase products, goods, and services in our lives. The Hooked Model can help shine new lig
2025-05-21 04:27:10 Wednesday ET
Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the scientific reasons why the growth mindset often helps motivate individuals, teams, and managers to acc
2018-08-27 09:35:00 Monday ET
President Trump and his Republican senators and supporters praise the recent economic revival of most American counties. The Economist highlights a trifecta
2019-02-17 14:40:00 Sunday ET
U.S. economic inequality increases to pre-Great-Depression levels. U.C. Berkeley economics professor Gabriel Zucman empirically finds that the top 0.1% rich
2019-01-06 08:39:00 Sunday ET
President Trump signs an executive order to freeze federal employee pay in early-2019. Federal employees face furlough or work without pay due to the govern
2017-12-01 06:30:00 Friday ET
Dr Kai-Fu Lee praises China as the next epicenter of artificial intelligence, smart data analysis, and robotic automation. With prior IT careers at Apple, M