2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward economic trajectory exceeds most stock market expectations and projections of about 2.5% real GDP growth as of 2019Q1. Moreover, this favorable rebound puts to rest prior pervasive investor fears of an economic recession. This key economic momentum arises without fresh inflationary pressure. As core CPI inflation continues to hover near the 2% target level and the U.S. economy operates with lower unemployment near 3.6%, the Federal Reserve remains patient on the next round of interest rate adjustments after mid-2019.
In the current economic scenario, there is no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment as the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) might indicate. The Phillips curve seems to substantially flatten in recent years, thus the U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. This economic outlook resonates with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. Meanwhile, the greenback depreciates a little for U.S. export prices to remain competitive in the global economic landscape. These positive economic events can contribute much to the Trump economic scorecard for his presidential re-election in 2020.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2020-04-10 11:33:00 Friday ET
Elon Musk envisions a bold fantastic future with his professional trifecta of lean startup enterprises SolarCity, SpaceX, and Tesla. Ashlee Vance (2015)
2024-01-31 14:33:00 Wednesday ET
The new world order of trade helps accomplish non-economic policy goals such as national security and technological dominance. To the extent that freer
2018-08-03 07:33:00 Friday ET
President Trump escalates the current Sino-American trade war by imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports. These tariffs encompass chemical prod
2025-06-05 00:00:00 Thursday ET
Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg describes, discusses, and delves into how we can change our respective lives
2018-05-10 07:37:00 Thursday ET
Top money managers George Soros and Warren Buffett reveal their current stock and bond positions in their recent corporate disclosures as of mid-2018. Georg
2018-07-07 10:33:00 Saturday ET
The east-west tech rivalry intensifies between BATs (Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent) and FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google). These Sino-U.S.