2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward economic trajectory exceeds most stock market expectations and projections of about 2.5% real GDP growth as of 2019Q1. Moreover, this favorable rebound puts to rest prior pervasive investor fears of an economic recession. This key economic momentum arises without fresh inflationary pressure. As core CPI inflation continues to hover near the 2% target level and the U.S. economy operates with lower unemployment near 3.6%, the Federal Reserve remains patient on the next round of interest rate adjustments after mid-2019.
In the current economic scenario, there is no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment as the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) might indicate. The Phillips curve seems to substantially flatten in recent years, thus the U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. This economic outlook resonates with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. Meanwhile, the greenback depreciates a little for U.S. export prices to remain competitive in the global economic landscape. These positive economic events can contribute much to the Trump economic scorecard for his presidential re-election in 2020.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-01-09 10:31:00 Monday ET
Response to USPTO fintech patent protection As of early-January 2023, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has approved our U.S. utility patent
2023-12-03 11:33:00 Sunday ET
Macro innovations and asset alphas show significant mutual causation. April 2023 This brief article draws from the recent research publicati
2025-02-28 11:31:00 Friday ET
AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools for stock market investors. As of September 2025, we hav
2019-10-07 12:35:00 Monday ET
Federal Reserve reduces the interest rate by another key quarter point to the target range of 1.75%-2% in September 2019. In accordance with the Federal Res
2018-07-23 07:41:00 Monday ET
President Trump now agrees to cease fire in the trade conflict with the European Union. Both sides can work together towards *zero tariffs, zero non-tariff
2018-11-15 12:35:00 Thursday ET
Warren Buffett approves Berkshire Hathaway to implement new meaningful stock repurchases. Buffett sends a positive signal to the stock market with the Berks