2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward economic trajectory exceeds most stock market expectations and projections of about 2.5% real GDP growth as of 2019Q1. Moreover, this favorable rebound puts to rest prior pervasive investor fears of an economic recession. This key economic momentum arises without fresh inflationary pressure. As core CPI inflation continues to hover near the 2% target level and the U.S. economy operates with lower unemployment near 3.6%, the Federal Reserve remains patient on the next round of interest rate adjustments after mid-2019.
In the current economic scenario, there is no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment as the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) might indicate. The Phillips curve seems to substantially flatten in recent years, thus the U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. This economic outlook resonates with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. Meanwhile, the greenback depreciates a little for U.S. export prices to remain competitive in the global economic landscape. These positive economic events can contribute much to the Trump economic scorecard for his presidential re-election in 2020.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-11-05 07:41:00 Tuesday ET
The Trump administration expects to reach an interim partial trade deal with China. This interim partial trade deal represents the first phase of a comprehe
2017-04-01 06:40:00 Saturday ET
With the current interest rate hike, large banks and insurance companies are likely to benefit from higher equity risk premiums and interest rate spreads.
2023-12-09 08:28:00 Saturday ET
International trade, immigration, and elite-mass conflict The elite model portrays public policy as a reflection of the interests and values of elites. I
2023-08-14 09:25:00 Monday ET
Peter Isard analyzes the proper economic policy reforms and root causes of global financial crises of the 1990s and 2008-2009. Peter Isard (2005) &nbs
2021-07-07 05:22:00 Wednesday ET
What are the best online stock market investment tools? Stock trading has seen an explosion since the start of the pandemic. As people lost their jobs an
2023-12-04 12:30:00 Monday ET
Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle Abstract We assess the quantitative effects of the recent proposal