The Economist highlights a trifecta of plausible explanations for better economic fortunes during the current Trump administration.

Chanel Holden

2018-08-27 09:35:00 Mon ET

President Trump and his Republican senators and supporters praise the recent economic revival of most American counties. The Economist highlights a trifecta of plausible explanations for better economic fortunes during the current Trump administration. First, some traditional industries that specialize in the extraction of non-renewable resources such as petroleum, natural gas, and even water grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. In fact, these labor-intensive ore industries tend to concentrate in conservative parts of the American political spectrum.

Second, the U.S. economy improves in the latter stages of an economic boom as firms tend to hire more low-skill workers. This trend may favor Trump-driven cities and towns.

Third, investor confidence among Trump supporters and proponents provides a psychological boost to household consumption and firm-specific investment in the form of mergers and acquisitions and capital expenditures. This positive investor sentiment can drive gradual increases in real macro variates such as employment, capital accumulation, and economic output.

A recent poll by Ipsos shows that 66% of Republicans feel more comfortable to make major purchases than 6 months ago, whereas, only 44% of Democrats feel the same way.

A recent McKinsey report delves into the current status of world economic affairs about a decade after the global financial crisis. Several punchlines arise from this broader context. First, global debt grows as the aggregate debt of governments, non-financial firms, and households has grown by $72 trillion since late-2007. Also, the global debt-to-GDP ratio has grown from 207% to 236%.

Second, government debt more than doubles from $29 trillion to $60 trillion while corporate debt also soars from $37 trillion to $66 trillion due to low interest rates. Household debt declines as a proportion of GDP in America, Britain, and Germany, but this household-debt-to-GDP ratio increases in several other OECD countries such as Australia and Canada. On balance, global household debt grows from $31 trillion to $43 trillion from late-2008 to mid-2018.

Third, many banks experience greater core capital strength as the core equity ratio rises from less than 4% in America and Europe to more than 15% in early-2018. Most banks thus have become less profitable with much lower ROEs and ROAs. In effect, financial contagion becomes less likely as a result of sharp cross-border capital retreat from $13 trillion in late-2007 to $6 trillion in early-2018.

The McKinsey report points out that corporate debt growth gives cause for pause, especially in Chinese real estate. Geopolitical flashpoints now span the nationalist movements that shed skeptical light on free trade agreements and WTO rules.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces her landslide defeat in the parliamentary vote 432-to-202 against her Brexit deal.

Charlene Vos

2019-01-27 12:39:00 Sunday ET

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces her landslide defeat in the parliamentary vote 432-to-202 against her Brexit deal.

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces her landslide defeat in the parliamentary vote 432-to-202 against her Brexit deal. British Parliament rejects the M

+See More

Joel Mokyr suggests that economic growth arises from a change in cultural beliefs toward technological progress.

John Fourier

2023-11-07 11:31:00 Tuesday ET

Joel Mokyr suggests that economic growth arises from a change in cultural beliefs toward technological progress.

Joel Mokyr suggests that economic growth arises from a change in cultural beliefs toward technological progress. Joel Mokyr (2018)   A culture

+See More

Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the U.S. stock market.

Jacob Miramar

2017-05-19 09:39:00 Friday ET

Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the U.S. stock market.

FAMGA stands for Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. These tech giants account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the American stock

+See More

The global market for GLP-1 weight-loss medications can grow substantially to benefit more than 1 billion people worldwide by 2030.

Monica McNeil

2025-10-31 12:26:00 Friday ET

The global market for GLP-1 weight-loss medications can grow substantially to benefit more than 1 billion people worldwide by 2030.

With respect to wider weight loss treatment and obesity treatment, the global market for GLP-1 medications now grows substantially to benefit more than 1 bi

+See More

Warren Buffett points out that American children will be better off than their parents in the next decades.

Dan Rochefort

2018-01-05 07:37:00 Friday ET

Warren Buffett points out that American children will be better off than their parents in the next decades.

Warren Buffett cleverly points out that American children will not only be better off than their parents, but the former will also enjoy higher living stand

+See More

Many U.S. large public corporations spend their tax cuts on new dividend payout and share buyback.

Jacob Miramar

2018-05-23 09:41:00 Wednesday ET

Many U.S. large public corporations spend their tax cuts on new dividend payout and share buyback.

Many U.S. large public corporations spend their tax cuts on new dividend payout and share buyback but not on new job creation and R&D innovation. These

+See More