The Chinese central bank has to circumvent offshore imports-driven inflation due to Renminbi currency misalignment.

Amy Hamilton

2019-07-07 18:36:00 Sun ET

The Chinese central bank has to circumvent offshore imports-driven inflation due to Renminbi currency misalignment. Even though China keeps substantial foreign reserves in U.S. government bonds, traders may still speculate whether the People Bank of China (PBOC) can fix the Dollar-Renminbi exchange rate below 7.0x. This current exchange rate has substantially declined about 9.3% since April 2018 and now hovers in the stable range of 6.89x-6.92x. PBOC Governor Yi Gang indicates that there is no asymmetric red line for the Sino-American exchange rate. However, Chinese economic policymakers may be hesitant to let their currency depreciate past RMB$7-to-USD$1.

Any expectations of short-term currency misalignment can spur capital flight out of the Chinese economy. Chinese public corporations that list abroad have to make cash dividend payments in June each year; so foreign exchange order flows reveal substantive short-term pressure for these Chinese public firms to sell the offshore Renminbi. As China achieves a near-zero current account surplus in mid-2019, the Renminbi faces downward pressure. Renminbi depreciation has long been a major source of tremendous competitive advantage for China. It is important for the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations to level the playing field with respect to potential Renminbi currency misalignment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

Charlene Vos

2019-04-29 08:35:00 Monday ET

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key

+See More

The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and macroeconomic optimism.

Fiona Sydney

2019-11-13 11:34:00 Wednesday ET

The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and macroeconomic optimism.

The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and economic optimism. British prime minister Boris Johnson wins the parliamentary vote on his new

+See More

President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with better trade deals and economic ties.

Jacob Miramar

2018-03-03 11:37:00 Saturday ET

President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with better trade deals and economic ties.

President Xi seeks Chinese congressional approval and constitutional amendment for abolishing his term limits of strongman rule with more favorable trade de

+See More

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Friday ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predict

+See More

CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends Caterpillar and Home Depot during the current U.S. stock market rally.

Charlene Vos

2019-03-15 13:36:00 Friday ET

CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends Caterpillar and Home Depot during the current U.S. stock market rally.

CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends both Caterpillar and Home Depot as the U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comment

+See More

Global climate change can cause an adverse impact on long-term real GDP economic growth.

Dan Rochefort

2019-10-27 17:37:00 Sunday ET

Global climate change can cause an adverse impact on long-term real GDP economic growth.

International climate change can cause an adverse impact on long-term real GDP economic growth. USC climate change economist Hashem Pesaran and his co-autho

+See More