The Chinese central bank has to circumvent offshore imports-driven inflation due to Renminbi currency misalignment.

Amy Hamilton

2019-07-07 18:36:00 Sun ET

The Chinese central bank has to circumvent offshore imports-driven inflation due to Renminbi currency misalignment. Even though China keeps substantial foreign reserves in U.S. government bonds, traders may still speculate whether the People Bank of China (PBOC) can fix the Dollar-Renminbi exchange rate below 7.0x. This current exchange rate has substantially declined about 9.3% since April 2018 and now hovers in the stable range of 6.89x-6.92x. PBOC Governor Yi Gang indicates that there is no asymmetric red line for the Sino-American exchange rate. However, Chinese economic policymakers may be hesitant to let their currency depreciate past RMB$7-to-USD$1.

Any expectations of short-term currency misalignment can spur capital flight out of the Chinese economy. Chinese public corporations that list abroad have to make cash dividend payments in June each year; so foreign exchange order flows reveal substantive short-term pressure for these Chinese public firms to sell the offshore Renminbi. As China achieves a near-zero current account surplus in mid-2019, the Renminbi faces downward pressure. Renminbi depreciation has long been a major source of tremendous competitive advantage for China. It is important for the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations to level the playing field with respect to potential Renminbi currency misalignment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism.

Rose Prince

2019-02-07 07:25:00 Thursday ET

President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism.

President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism. The Trump administration seems to prefer bilateral negotiat

+See More

Macro eigenvalue volatility helps predict some recent episodes of high economic policy uncertainty.

James Campbell

2020-09-15 08:38:00 Tuesday ET

Macro eigenvalue volatility helps predict some recent episodes of high economic policy uncertainty.

Macro eigenvalue volatility helps predict some recent episodes of high economic policy uncertainty, recession risk, or rare events such as the recent rampan

+See More

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property protection and enforcement.

James Campbell

2019-10-05 07:27:00 Saturday ET

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property protection and enforcement.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicates that there is a good conceptual trade agreement between China and the U.S. in regard to intellectual property pr

+See More

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe outlines the main economic priorities for the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.

Laura Hermes

2019-07-13 07:17:00 Saturday ET

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe outlines the main economic priorities for the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe outlines the main economic priorities for the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. First, Asian countries need to forge the key Re

+See More

Basic income reforms can contribute to better health care, infrastructure, education, technology, and residential protection.

Daisy Harvey

2023-02-28 10:27:00 Tuesday ET

Basic income reforms can contribute to better health care, infrastructure, education, technology, and residential protection.

Basic income reforms can contribute to better health care, public infrastructure, education, technology, and residential protection. Philippe Van Parijs

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Oracle (U.S. stock symbol: $ORCL).

Chanel Holden

2025-10-02 12:31:00 Thursday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Oracle (U.S. stock symbol: $ORCL).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More