2019-07-07 18:36:00 Sun ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Chinese central bank has to circumvent offshore imports-driven inflation due to Renminbi currency misalignment. Even though China keeps substantial foreign reserves in U.S. government bonds, traders may still speculate whether the People Bank of China (PBOC) can fix the Dollar-Renminbi exchange rate below 7.0x. This current exchange rate has substantially declined about 9.3% since April 2018 and now hovers in the stable range of 6.89x-6.92x. PBOC Governor Yi Gang indicates that there is no asymmetric red line for the Sino-American exchange rate. However, Chinese economic policymakers may be hesitant to let their currency depreciate past RMB$7-to-USD$1.
Any expectations of short-term currency misalignment can spur capital flight out of the Chinese economy. Chinese public corporations that list abroad have to make cash dividend payments in June each year; so foreign exchange order flows reveal substantive short-term pressure for these Chinese public firms to sell the offshore Renminbi. As China achieves a near-zero current account surplus in mid-2019, the Renminbi faces downward pressure. Renminbi depreciation has long been a major source of tremendous competitive advantage for China. It is important for the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations to level the playing field with respect to potential Renminbi currency misalignment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-08-27 09:35:00 Monday ET

President Trump and his Republican senators and supporters praise the recent economic revival of most American counties. The Economist highlights a trifecta
2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thursday ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S.
2018-09-30 14:34:00 Sunday ET

Goldman, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, and UBS face an antitrust lawsuit. In this lawsuit, a U.S. judge alleges the illegal cons
2023-06-21 12:32:00 Wednesday ET

Michael Sandel analyzes what money cannot buy in stark contrast to the free market ideology of capitalism. Michael Sandel (2013) What money
2018-09-21 09:41:00 Friday ET

Former World Bank and IMF chief advisor Anne Krueger explains why the Trump administration's current tariff tactics undermine the multilateral global tr
2019-08-14 10:31:00 Wednesday ET

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes. The company adds only 2.7 million new subscribers in 2019Q2 in stark