The Chinese central bank has to circumvent offshore imports-driven inflation due to Renminbi currency misalignment.

Amy Hamilton

2019-07-07 18:36:00 Sun ET

The Chinese central bank has to circumvent offshore imports-driven inflation due to Renminbi currency misalignment. Even though China keeps substantial foreign reserves in U.S. government bonds, traders may still speculate whether the People Bank of China (PBOC) can fix the Dollar-Renminbi exchange rate below 7.0x. This current exchange rate has substantially declined about 9.3% since April 2018 and now hovers in the stable range of 6.89x-6.92x. PBOC Governor Yi Gang indicates that there is no asymmetric red line for the Sino-American exchange rate. However, Chinese economic policymakers may be hesitant to let their currency depreciate past RMB$7-to-USD$1.

Any expectations of short-term currency misalignment can spur capital flight out of the Chinese economy. Chinese public corporations that list abroad have to make cash dividend payments in June each year; so foreign exchange order flows reveal substantive short-term pressure for these Chinese public firms to sell the offshore Renminbi. As China achieves a near-zero current account surplus in mid-2019, the Renminbi faces downward pressure. Renminbi depreciation has long been a major source of tremendous competitive advantage for China. It is important for the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations to level the playing field with respect to potential Renminbi currency misalignment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis.

John Fourier

2018-01-19 11:32:00 Friday ET

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis.

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis. These economies experience high stock market valuation,

+See More

The Economist highlights a trifecta of plausible explanations for better economic fortunes during the current Trump administration.

Chanel Holden

2018-08-27 09:35:00 Monday ET

The Economist highlights a trifecta of plausible explanations for better economic fortunes during the current Trump administration.

President Trump and his Republican senators and supporters praise the recent economic revival of most American counties. The Economist highlights a trifecta

+See More

Ray Fair applies his macroeconometric model to study the central features of the U.S. macroeconomy such as price stability and full employment in the dual mandate.

Charlene Vos

2023-07-14 10:32:00 Friday ET

Ray Fair applies his macroeconometric model to study the central features of the U.S. macroeconomy such as price stability and full employment in the dual mandate.

Ray Fair applies his macroeconometric model to study the central features of the U.S. macroeconomy such as price stability and full employment in the dual m

+See More

Bidenomics better balances fiscal deficits and government expenditures with new corporate and capital income tax hikes.

Apple Boston

2021-08-01 07:26:00 Sunday ET

Bidenomics better balances fiscal deficits and government expenditures with new corporate and capital income tax hikes.

The Biden administration launches economic reforms in fiscal and monetary stimulus, global trade, finance, and technology. President Joe Biden proposes s

+See More

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes.

Olivia London

2023-03-21 11:28:00 Tuesday ET

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes.

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes. Barry Eichengreen (2016)

+See More

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current Sino-U.S. trade war.

Daisy Harvey

2018-03-27 07:33:00 Tuesday ET

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current Sino-U.S. trade war.

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current trade war between America and China. As America imposes

+See More