The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
Apple releases its September 2018 trifecta of smart phones or iPhone X sequels: iPhone Xs, iPhone Xs Max, and iPhone XR.
Jacob Miramar

2018-09-15 11:35:00 Saturday ET

Apple releases its September 2018 trifecta of smart phones or iPhone X sequels: iPhone Xs, iPhone Xs Max, and iPhone XR.

Apple releases its September 2018 trifecta of smart phones or iPhone X sequels: iPhone Xs, iPhone Xs Max, and iPhone XR. Both iPhone Xs and iPhone Xs Max ha

+See More
Fed Chair Jay Powell suggests that the recent surge in U.S. business debt poses moderate risks to the economy.
Laura Hermes

2019-06-05 10:34:00 Wednesday ET

Fed Chair Jay Powell suggests that the recent surge in U.S. business debt poses moderate risks to the economy.

Fed Chair Jay Powell suggests that the recent surge in U.S. business debt poses moderate risks to the economy. Many corporate treasuries now carry about 40%

+See More
Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom.
Chanel Holden

2020-06-24 09:32:00 Wednesday ET

Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom.

Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom. Renee Martin and Don Martin (2010

+See More
Federal Reserve proposes to revamp post-crisis rules for U.S. banks.
Joseph Corr

2019-04-19 12:35:00 Friday ET

Federal Reserve proposes to revamp post-crisis rules for U.S. banks.

Federal Reserve proposes to revamp post-crisis rules for U.S. banks. The current proposals would prescribe materially less strict requirements for community

+See More
Financial institutions benefit from higher equity risk premiums and interest rate spreads.
Charlene Vos

2017-04-01 06:40:00 Saturday ET

Financial institutions benefit from higher equity risk premiums and interest rate spreads.

With the current interest rate hike, large banks and insurance companies are likely to benefit from higher equity risk premiums and interest rate spreads.

+See More
Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide.
Monica McNeil

2021-09-15 11:36:00 Wednesday ET

Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide.

Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton suggest that free trade helps promote better economic development worldwide. Joseph Stiglitz and Andrew Charlton (200

+See More