San Francisco Fed CEO Mary Daly suggests that trade escalation is not the only risk in the global economy. Due to the current Sino-U.S. trade tension, the global economy seems to slow down quite a bit. Some other global economic issues call for resolution too. For instance, Brexit may result in negative consequences for Eurozone trade and financial capital exodus. Daly indicates that the U.S. economy may experience unforeseen challenges if business sentiment and economic data get out of sync. If business sentiment turns out to be negative, this negativity may become a self-fulfilling prophecy that may inadvertently lead to major fluctuations in real economic output.

Nevertheless, Daly reiterates that the U.S. economy operates near the long-term efficient level with 3.6% unemployment as inflation rises toward the 2% target. In the current macroeconomic scenario, the federal funds rate remains neutral. This outcome accords with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of both price stability and maximum sustainable employment.

The recent interest rate hikes help dampen extreme asset price gyrations and so contribute to financial market stabilization. At any rate, Daly emphasizes that it is important for the Federal Reserve to remain patient before the FOMC members consider the next interest rate adjustments.