Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Innovative investment theory and practice

Olivia London

2022-05-15 10:29:00 Sunday ET

Innovative investment theory and practice

Innovative investment theory and practice Corporate investment can be in the form of real tangible investment or intangible investment. The former conce

+See More

Trump tariffs begin to bite U.S. corporate profits from Ford and Harley-Davidson to Caterpillar and Walmart etc.

James Campbell

2018-10-25 10:36:00 Thursday ET

Trump tariffs begin to bite U.S. corporate profits from Ford and Harley-Davidson to Caterpillar and Walmart etc.

Trump tariffs begin to bite U.S. corporate profits from Ford and Harley-Davidson to Caterpillar and Walmart etc. U.S. corporate profit growth remains high a

+See More

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sunday ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yie

+See More

Blue-ocean strategists shift focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space.

Apple Boston

2020-05-21 11:30:00 Thursday ET

Blue-ocean strategists shift focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space.

Most blue-ocean strategists shift fundamental focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space. W. Chan Kim and Renee Ma

+See More

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years.

Monica McNeil

2019-10-25 07:49:00 Friday ET

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years.

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years. The current U.S. Treasury fiscal budget deficit rises from $779 billion to $1.0

+See More

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation.

Monica McNeil

2020-11-17 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation.

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation. Alan Weiss (2016)

+See More