Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and macroeconomic optimism.

Fiona Sydney

2019-11-13 11:34:00 Wednesday ET

The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and macroeconomic optimism.

The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and economic optimism. British prime minister Boris Johnson wins the parliamentary vote on his new

+See More

Uber's autonomous car causes the first known pedestrian fatality from a driverless vehicle.

Daphne Basel

2018-03-19 10:37:00 Monday ET

Uber's autonomous car causes the first known pedestrian fatality from a driverless vehicle.

Uber's autonomous car causes the first known pedestrian fatality from a driverless vehicle and thus sets off the alarm bell for artificial intelligence.

+See More

Blue-ocean strategists shift focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space.

Apple Boston

2020-05-21 11:30:00 Thursday ET

Blue-ocean strategists shift focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space.

Most blue-ocean strategists shift fundamental focus from current competitors to alternative non-customers with new market space. W. Chan Kim and Renee Ma

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Cisco Systems (U.S. stock symbol: $CSCO).

Joseph Corr

2025-10-07 10:30:00 Tuesday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Cisco Systems (U.S. stock symbol: $CSCO).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation

Andy Yeh Alpha

2023-01-03 09:34:00 Tuesday ET

USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation

  USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation   As of early-January 2023, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has approved

+See More

Generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) uses large language models (LLM) to create online contents with better human productivity.

Monica McNeil

2024-10-31 09:26:00 Thursday ET

Generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) uses large language models (LLM) to create online contents with better human productivity.

Generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) uses large language models (LLM) and content generation tools to enhance human lives with better productivity.

+See More