2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET
stock market gold oil stock return s&p 500 asset market stabilization asset price fluctuations stocks bonds currencies commodities funds term spreads credit spreads fair value spreads asset investments
Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.
As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.
Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-07-25 11:41:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump hails and touts America's new high real GDP economic growth in 2018Q2. The U.S. is now a $20+ trillion economy, and America hits this mi
2019-09-07 17:37:00 Saturday ET

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announces the monetary policy decision to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 2%-2.25%. This interest rat
2023-09-21 09:26:00 Thursday ET

Jordi Gali delves into the science of the New Keynesian monetary policy framework with economic output and inflation stabilization. Jordi Gali (2015)
2022-02-25 00:00:00 Friday ET

Empirical tests of multi-factor models for asset return prediction The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), and Bla
2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sunday ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yie
2018-06-29 11:41:00 Friday ET

Amazon acquires an Internet pharmacy PillPack in order to better compete with Walgreens Boots Alliance, CVS Health, Rite Aid, and many other drug distributo