Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

CNBC news anchor Becky Quick interviews Warren Buffett in early-2019.

James Campbell

2019-04-07 13:39:00 Sunday ET

CNBC news anchor Becky Quick interviews Warren Buffett in early-2019.

CNBC news anchor Becky Quick interviews Warren Buffett in early-2019. Buffett explains the fact that book value fluctuations are a metric that has lost rele

+See More

The Trump $1.5 trillion hefty tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures may speed up the Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

Joseph Corr

2018-03-15 07:41:00 Thursday ET

The Trump $1.5 trillion hefty tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures may speed up the Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

The Trump administration's $1.5 trillion hefty tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures may speed up the Federal Reserve interest rate hike

+See More

U.S. economic inequality increases to pre-Great-Depression levels.

Fiona Sydney

2019-02-17 14:40:00 Sunday ET

U.S. economic inequality increases to pre-Great-Depression levels.

U.S. economic inequality increases to pre-Great-Depression levels. U.C. Berkeley economics professor Gabriel Zucman empirically finds that the top 0.1% rich

+See More

America and China play the game of chicken over trade and technology.

John Fourier

2018-05-01 11:38:00 Tuesday ET

America and China play the game of chicken over trade and technology.

America and China play the game of chicken over trade and technology, whereas, most market observers and economic media commentators hope the Trump team to

+See More

Snap cannot keep up with the Kardashians because its stock loses $1 billion market value after Kylie Jenner tweets about her decision to leave Snapchat.

Monica McNeil

2018-02-19 08:39:00 Monday ET

Snap cannot keep up with the Kardashians because its stock loses $1 billion market value after Kylie Jenner tweets about her decision to leave Snapchat.

Snap cannot keep up with the Kardashians because its stock loses market value 7% or $1 billion after Kylie Jenner tweets about her decision to leave Snapcha

+See More

President Trump tweets that Apple can avoid tariff consequences by shifting its primary supply chain from China to America.

Olivia London

2018-09-11 18:36:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump tweets that Apple can avoid tariff consequences by shifting its primary supply chain from China to America.

President Trump tweets that Apple can avoid tariff consequences by shifting its primary supply chain from China to America. These Trump tariffs on another $

+See More