Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Financial institutions benefit from higher equity risk premiums and interest rate spreads.

Charlene Vos

2017-04-01 06:40:00 Saturday ET

Financial institutions benefit from higher equity risk premiums and interest rate spreads.

With the current interest rate hike, large banks and insurance companies are likely to benefit from higher equity risk premiums and interest rate spreads.

+See More

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics and economic trends for better stock investment decisions.

Amy Hamilton

2019-08-31 14:39:00 Saturday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics and economic trends for better stock investment decisions.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube August 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of August 2019: (1) Warren B

+See More

Thomas Sowell argues that some economic reforms inadvertently exacerbate economic disparities.

Daisy Harvey

2023-11-14 08:24:00 Tuesday ET

Thomas Sowell argues that some economic reforms inadvertently exacerbate economic disparities.

Thomas Sowell argues that some economic reforms inadvertently exacerbate economic disparities. Thomas Sowell (2019)   Discrimination and econo

+See More

Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the scientific reasons why the growth mindset often helps motivate individuals, teams, and managers to accomplish more with greater grit, focus, and resilience.

Dan Rochefort

2025-05-21 04:27:10 Wednesday ET

Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the scientific reasons why the growth mindset often helps motivate individuals, teams, and managers to accomplish more with greater grit, focus, and resilience.

Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the scientific reasons why the growth mindset often helps motivate individuals, teams, and managers to acc

+See More

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliate

+See More

President Donald Trump unveils the dramatic *tax overhaul proposal*.

Daisy Harvey

2017-04-13 10:42:00 Thursday ET

President Donald Trump unveils the dramatic *tax overhaul proposal*.

President Donald Trump unveils the dramatic *tax overhaul proposal*. Through this tax plan, Trump replaces the current 7 income tax brackets with 3 leane

+See More