Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes.

Olivia London

2023-03-21 11:28:00 Tuesday ET

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes.

Barry Eichengreen compares the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession as historical episodes of economic woes. Barry Eichengreen (2016)

+See More

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sunday ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yie

+See More

Netflix stares at higher content costs as Disney and Fox hold merger talks.

Joseph Corr

2017-10-21 08:45:00 Saturday ET

Netflix stares at higher content costs as Disney and Fox hold merger talks.

Netflix stares at higher content costs as Disney and Fox hold merger talks. Disney has held talks to acquire most of 21st Century Fox's business equity.

+See More

Dr Karl Ulrich explains that many elite universities now provide massive open online courses (MOOCs) for lifelong learners to achieve their medium-term goals for better intellectual focus, immersion, personal growth, and self-improvement.

Charlene Vos

2025-08-09 11:31:00 Saturday ET

Dr Karl Ulrich explains that many elite universities now provide massive open online courses (MOOCs) for lifelong learners to achieve their medium-term goals for better intellectual focus, immersion, personal growth, and self-improvement.

Wharton e-commerce entrepreneurship professor Dr Karl Ulrich explains that many top-notch universities now provide massive open online courses (MOOCs) for m

+See More

American CEOs of about 200 corporations issue a joint statement in support of stakeholder value maximization.

Becky Berkman

2019-10-23 15:39:00 Wednesday ET

American CEOs of about 200 corporations issue a joint statement in support of stakeholder value maximization.

American CEOs of about 200 corporations issue a joint statement in support of stakeholder value maximization. The Business Roundtable offers this statement

+See More

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Olivia London

2019-01-05 11:39:00 Saturday ET

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown. President Trump remains adamant about having to shut d

+See More