2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET
stock market gold oil stock return s&p 500 asset market stabilization asset price fluctuations stocks bonds currencies commodities funds term spreads credit spreads fair value spreads asset investments
Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.
As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.
Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-05-10 07:37:00 Thursday ET

Top money managers George Soros and Warren Buffett reveal their current stock and bond positions in their recent corporate disclosures as of mid-2018. Georg
2019-03-19 12:35:00 Tuesday ET

U.S. tech titans increasingly hire PhD economists to help solve business problems. These key tech titans include Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple,
2019-05-30 16:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube May 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of May 2019: (1) Our proprietary alp
2019-01-09 07:33:00 Wednesday ET

Apple revises down its global sales revenue estimate to $83 billion due to subpar smartphone sales in China. Apple CEO Tim Cook points out the fact that he
2019-09-11 09:31:00 Wednesday ET

Central banks in India, Thailand, and New Zealand lower their interest rates in a defensive response to the Federal Reserve recent rate cut. The central ban
2018-01-21 07:25:00 Sunday ET

As he refrains from using the memorable phrase *irrational exuberance* to assess bullish investor sentiments, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan discerns as