Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Capital structure choices for private firms

James Campbell

2022-09-15 11:38:00 Thursday ET

Capital structure choices for private firms

Capital structure choices for private firms The Kauffman Firm Survey (KFS) database provides comprehensive panel data on 5,000+ American private firms fr

+See More

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current Sino-U.S. trade war.

Daisy Harvey

2018-03-27 07:33:00 Tuesday ET

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current Sino-U.S. trade war.

CNBC's business anchorwoman Becky Quick interviews Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on the current trade war between America and China. As America imposes

+See More

Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir.

Amy Hamilton

2019-03-13 12:35:00 Wednesday ET

Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir.

Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir. Uber expects to complete o

+See More

Corporate ownership governance theory and practice

Monica McNeil

2022-04-25 10:34:00 Monday ET

Corporate ownership governance theory and practice

Corporate ownership governance theory and practice  The genesis of modern corporate governance and ownership studies traces back to the seminal work

+See More

Can the Chinese renminbi become the next dual global reserve currency in addition to the American dollar?

Daphne Basel

2020-08-01 07:28:00 Saturday ET

Can the Chinese renminbi become the next dual global reserve currency in addition to the American dollar?

Technological advances, geopolitical risks, and pandemic outbreaks cannot shake investor confidence in the American dollar as the global reserve currency.

+See More

President Trump targets Amazon in his call for U.S. Postal Service to charge higher delivery prices on the ecommerce giant.

Laura Hermes

2018-01-03 08:38:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump targets Amazon in his call for U.S. Postal Service to charge higher delivery prices on the ecommerce giant.

President Trump targets Amazon in his call for U.S. Postal Service to charge high delivery prices on the ecommerce giant. Trump picks another fight with an

+See More