Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk.

Dan Rochefort

2018-02-15 07:43:00 Thursday ET

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk.

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk. FOMC members revise up the economic projections made at the Dece

+See More

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2023-02-28 11:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism.

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism. As of 2022-2023, global inflation has gradually declined from the peak of 9.8% d

+See More

Better corporate governance through worldwide convergence toward Berle-Means stock ownership dispersion

Fiona Sydney

2023-12-05 09:25:00 Tuesday ET

Better corporate governance through worldwide convergence toward Berle-Means stock ownership dispersion

Better corporate ownership governance through worldwide convergence toward Berle-Means stock ownership dispersion   Abstract We design a model

+See More

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-01-13 12:37:00 Sunday ET

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development.

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development. Upon successful campaign completion, we will provide an eb

+See More

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance.

Monica McNeil

2018-07-30 11:36:00 Monday ET

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance.

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance. Populist support contributes to Trump's 2016 presidential election victory

+See More

American state attorneys general begin bipartisan antitrust investigations into Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google.

Charlene Vos

2019-10-21 10:35:00 Monday ET

American state attorneys general begin bipartisan antitrust investigations into Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google.

American state attorneys general begin bipartisan antitrust investigations into the market power and corporate behavior of central tech titans such as Apple

+See More