Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Fiona Sydney

2019-04-15 08:37:00 Monday ET

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy.

Chinese Belt-and-Road funds large international infrastructure investment projects primarily in East Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and Italy. Chinese Be

+See More

Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects more rate increases in late-2018.

Charlene Vos

2018-06-08 13:35:00 Friday ET

Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects more rate increases in late-2018.

The Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects subsequent rate increases in September and December 2018 to dampen inf

+See More

Snap cannot keep up with the Kardashians because its stock loses $1 billion market value after Kylie Jenner tweets about her decision to leave Snapchat.

Monica McNeil

2018-02-19 08:39:00 Monday ET

Snap cannot keep up with the Kardashians because its stock loses $1 billion market value after Kylie Jenner tweets about her decision to leave Snapchat.

Snap cannot keep up with the Kardashians because its stock loses market value 7% or $1 billion after Kylie Jenner tweets about her decision to leave Snapcha

+See More

Addendum on USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation

Andy Yeh Alpha

2023-01-11 09:26:00 Wednesday ET

Addendum on USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation

Addendum on USPTO fintech patent protection and accreditation As of early-January 2023, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has approved our U.S

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Tesla (U.S. stock symbol: $TSLA).

Jacob Miramar

2025-09-28 10:10:51 Sunday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Tesla (U.S. stock symbol: $TSLA).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance.

Becky Berkman

2018-05-13 08:33:00 Sunday ET

Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance.

Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance in order to stop holding the financial market's han

+See More