Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2020.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2020-02-02 10:31:00 Sunday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2020.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. We implement

+See More

Bill Gates shares with Mark Zuckerberg his prior personal experiences of testifying before Congress.

Peter Prince

2018-09-13 19:38:00 Thursday ET

Bill Gates shares with Mark Zuckerberg his prior personal experiences of testifying before Congress.

Bill Gates shares with Mark Zuckerberg his prior personal experiences of testifying on behalf of Microsoft before U.S. Congress. Both drop out of Harvard to

+See More

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination

Becky Berkman

2023-12-07 07:22:00 Thursday ET

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination Traditionally, fiscal and monetary policies were made incrementally. In

+See More

The global market for GLP-1 weight-loss medications can grow substantially to benefit more than 1 billion people worldwide by 2030.

Monica McNeil

2025-10-31 12:26:00 Friday ET

The global market for GLP-1 weight-loss medications can grow substantially to benefit more than 1 billion people worldwide by 2030.

With respect to wider weight loss treatment and obesity treatment, the global market for GLP-1 medications now grows substantially to benefit more than 1 bi

+See More

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Olivia London

2019-01-05 11:39:00 Saturday ET

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown. President Trump remains adamant about having to shut d

+See More

American exceptionalism often turns out to be the heuristic rule of thumb for better economic growth, low and stable inflation, full employment, and macro-financial stability.

Apple Boston

2026-07-01 11:29:00 Wednesday ET

American exceptionalism often turns out to be the heuristic rule of thumb for better economic growth, low and stable inflation, full employment, and macro-financial stability.

In recent years, higher American economic growth has been impressive both by historical standards and in comparison to the rest of the world. American excep

+See More