Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-02-28 20:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube February 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of February 2019: (1) our proprieta

+See More

President Trump threatens to shut down the government if Democrats refuse to help approve $5 billion border wall finance.

Joseph Corr

2018-12-18 10:38:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump threatens to shut down the government if Democrats refuse to help approve $5 billion border wall finance.

President Trump threatens to shut down the U.S. government in 2019 if Democrats refuse to help approve $5 billion public finance for the southern border wal

+See More

President Trump escalates the current Sino-American trade war by imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.

Rose Prince

2018-08-03 07:33:00 Friday ET

President Trump escalates the current Sino-American trade war by imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.

President Trump escalates the current Sino-American trade war by imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports. These tariffs encompass chemical prod

+See More

President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution.

Monica McNeil

2019-02-05 10:32:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution.

President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution of both trade deficit eradication and tech transfer enforcement. Trump now s

+See More

Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom.

Chanel Holden

2020-06-24 09:32:00 Wednesday ET

Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom.

Several business founders and entrepreneurs take low risks with high potential rewards to buck the conventional wisdom. Renee Martin and Don Martin (2010

+See More

The global asset management industry is central to modern capitalism.

Amy Hamilton

2022-02-22 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

The global asset management industry is central to modern capitalism.

The global asset management industry is central to modern capitalism. Mutual funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowment trusts, and asset ma

+See More