Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Amazon acquires an Internet pharmacy PillPack in order to better compete with Walgreens and many other drug distributors.

Peter Prince

2018-06-29 11:41:00 Friday ET

Amazon acquires an Internet pharmacy PillPack in order to better compete with Walgreens and many other drug distributors.

Amazon acquires an Internet pharmacy PillPack in order to better compete with Walgreens Boots Alliance, CVS Health, Rite Aid, and many other drug distributo

+See More

Facebook reaches a $5 billion settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over Cambridge Analytica user privacy violations.

Monica McNeil

2019-08-12 07:30:00 Monday ET

Facebook reaches a $5 billion settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over Cambridge Analytica user privacy violations.

Facebook reaches a $5 billion settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over Cambridge Analytica user privacy violations. The Federal Trade Commission (F

+See More

Former Vice President Joe Biden enters the next U.S. presidential race with many moderate policy proposals.

Monica McNeil

2019-05-05 10:34:00 Sunday ET

Former Vice President Joe Biden enters the next U.S. presidential race with many moderate policy proposals.

Former Vice President Joe Biden enters the next U.S. presidential race with many moderate-to-progressive policy proposals. At the age of 76, Biden stands ou

+See More

Apple upstream suppliers such as Foxconn and Pegatron experience sharp share price declines during the Christmas 2017 holiday quarter.

Jacob Miramar

2018-11-21 11:36:00 Wednesday ET

Apple upstream suppliers such as Foxconn and Pegatron experience sharp share price declines during the Christmas 2017 holiday quarter.

Apple upstream suppliers from Foxconn and Pegatron to Radiance and Lumentum experience sharp share price declines during the Christmas 2017 holiday quarter.

+See More

President Trump criticizes his new Fed Chair Jerome Powell for accelerating the current interest rate hike.

Joseph Corr

2018-08-21 11:40:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump criticizes his new Fed Chair Jerome Powell for accelerating the current interest rate hike.

President Trump criticizes his new Fed Chair Jerome Powell for accelerating the current interest rate hike with greenback strength. This criticism overshado

+See More

Top 4 U.S. richest people are self-made billionaires: Gates, Buffet, Bloomberg, and Zuckerberg.

Dan Rochefort

2017-08-01 09:40:00 Tuesday ET

Top 4 U.S. richest people are self-made billionaires: Gates, Buffet, Bloomberg, and Zuckerberg.

In American states, all of the Top 4 richest people are self-made billionaires: Bill Gates in Washington, Warren Buffett in Nebraska, Michael Bloomberg in N

+See More