Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Nvidia (U.S. stock symbol: $NVDA).

Peter Prince

2025-09-24 09:49:53 Wednesday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Nvidia (U.S. stock symbol: $NVDA).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

Better corporate governance through worldwide convergence toward Berle-Means stock ownership dispersion

Fiona Sydney

2023-12-05 09:25:00 Tuesday ET

Better corporate governance through worldwide convergence toward Berle-Means stock ownership dispersion

Better corporate ownership governance through worldwide convergence toward Berle-Means stock ownership dispersion   Abstract We design a model

+See More

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum.

Daphne Basel

2018-05-05 07:33:00 Saturday ET

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum.

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum in May 2018 despite the new GA

+See More

Precautionary-motive and agency reasons for corporate cash management

Monica McNeil

2022-10-05 08:24:00 Wednesday ET

Precautionary-motive and agency reasons for corporate cash management

Precautionary-motive and agency reasons for corporate cash management Bates, Kahle, and Stulz (JF 2009) empirically find that public firms have doubled t

+See More

Saudi Aramco unveils the financial secrets of the most profitable corporation in the world.

Jacob Miramar

2019-04-13 14:28:00 Saturday ET

Saudi Aramco unveils the financial secrets of the most profitable corporation in the world.

Saudi Aramco unveils the financial secrets of the most profitable corporation in the world. In its recent public bond issuance prospectus, Aramco offers the

+See More

North Korean leader and president Kim Jong-Un seeks peaceful resolution and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

Olivia London

2018-04-11 09:37:00 Wednesday ET

North Korean leader and president Kim Jong-Un seeks peaceful resolution and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korean leader and president Kim Jong-Un seeks peaceful resolution and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. When *peace* comes to shove, Asia

+See More