2017-10-27 06:35:00 Fri ET
stock market gold oil stock return s&p 500 asset market stabilization asset price fluctuations stocks bonds currencies commodities funds term spreads credit spreads fair value spreads asset investments
Leon Cooperman, Chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, points out that the current Trump stock market rally now approaches normalization. The U.S. stock market is neither cheap nor expensive with a forward P/E ratio of 22x, which is a little higher than the long-run average P/E ratio of 16x to 18x. Most conditions for a bearish stock market correction are not present. For instance, bull markets typically end in overvaluation, whereas, Cooperman shares his wise and upbeat observation that the current stock market rally can continue north for another 15% margin. However, Cooperman suggests several reasons for bear markets:
(1) Inflation should accelerate for substantial interest rate liftoff;
(2) The relative likelihood of an NBER recession becomes real;
(3) The Federal Reserve becomes hawkish and aggressive; and
(4) Some major geopolitical event reverberates across America.
Despite these reasons for bearish stock market normalization, we expect the Trump stock market rally to continue insofar as the Federal Reserve gradually implements the interest rate hike once in December 2017 and then 3 to 4 times in 2018 with target core inflation around 2% to 2.5%, especially in the absence of any clear and present dangers in the quasi-diplomatic relations between the U.S. and *nuclear nations* such as North Korea and Iran.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-11-15 13:34:00 Friday ET
The Economist offers a special report that the new normal state of economic affairs shines fresh light on the division of labor between central banks and go
2017-02-01 14:41:00 Wednesday ET
President Trump refreshes his public image through his presidential address to Congress with numerous ambitious economic policies in order to make America g
2018-09-07 07:33:00 Friday ET
The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past deca
2017-12-01 06:30:00 Friday ET
Dr Kai-Fu Lee praises China as the next epicenter of artificial intelligence, smart data analysis, and robotic automation. With prior IT careers at Apple, M
2019-04-23 19:45:00 Tuesday ET
Income and wealth concentration follows the ebbs and flows of the business cycle in America. Economic inequality not only grows among people, but it also gr
2022-03-25 09:34:00 Friday ET
Corporate cash management The empirical corporate finance literature suggests four primary motives for firms to hold cash. These motives include the tra