Janet Yellen worries about U.S. government debt accumulation, expects new interest rate increases, and warns of the next economic recession.

Amy Hamilton

2018-11-05 10:40:00 Mon ET

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen worries about U.S. government debt accumulation, expects new interest rate increases, and warns of the next economic recession. Yellen points out that the current fiscal debt-and-deficit trajectory is unsustainable in the long run. The famous Sargent-Wallace unpleasant monetarist arithmetic rule suggests that if the government continues to accumulate fiscal deficits, incessant government debt issuance would induce higher inflation in the form of seigniorage taxes. Yellen also suggests that the U.S. Treasury might want to consider raising taxes with lower retirement expenditures. She observes the probable outcome that the current debt-deficit dilemma may exacerbate as more baby-boomers retire with greater retirement and health care needs.

With respect to monetary policy decisions, Yellen advocates gradual interest rate increases for better inflation containment in light of strong wage growth and labor market momentum. The current key interest rate hike helps ensure the sound-and-stable scenario that the U.S. economy cannot overheat due to cyclical tides. As of November 2018, the Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate 3 times year-to-date, and stock analysts and economists expect the FOMC to approve another key interest rate increase in December 2018. Yellen expects the next U.S. economic recession to be far off until late-2020. The next recession should be mild (but not deep and terrible).

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Louis Kaplow strives to find a delicate balance between efficiency gains and redistributive taxes in the social welfare function.

Chanel Holden

2023-07-07 10:29:00 Friday ET

Louis Kaplow strives to find a delicate balance between efficiency gains and redistributive taxes in the social welfare function.

Louis Kaplow strives to find a delicate balance between efficiency gains and redistributive taxes in the social welfare function. Louis Kaplow (2010)

+See More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024.

Dan Rochefort

2024-02-04 08:28:00 Sunday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024. Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the ma

+See More

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig raise broad critical issues about bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization.

Charlene Vos

2023-06-07 10:27:00 Wednesday ET

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig raise broad critical issues about bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization.

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig raise broad critical issues about bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization. Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig (

+See More

Goldman Sachs follows the timeless business principles and best practices in financial market design and investment management.

Chanel Holden

2020-02-26 09:30:00 Wednesday ET

Goldman Sachs follows the timeless business principles and best practices in financial market design and investment management.

Goldman Sachs follows the timeless business principles and best practices in financial market design and investment management. William Cohan (2011) M

+See More

OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020.

Rose Prince

2019-03-27 11:28:00 Wednesday ET

OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020.

OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020. The global economy suffers from economic protraction

+See More

Government intervention remains a major influence over global trade, finance, and technology.

Amy Hamilton

2023-08-31 10:22:00 Thursday ET

Government intervention remains a major influence over global trade, finance, and technology.

Government intervention remains a major influence over global trade, finance, and technology. Nowadays, many governments tend to eschew common ownership

+See More