2018-11-05 10:40:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen worries about U.S. government debt accumulation, expects new interest rate increases, and warns of the next economic recession. Yellen points out that the current fiscal debt-and-deficit trajectory is unsustainable in the long run. The famous Sargent-Wallace unpleasant monetarist arithmetic rule suggests that if the government continues to accumulate fiscal deficits, incessant government debt issuance would induce higher inflation in the form of seigniorage taxes. Yellen also suggests that the U.S. Treasury might want to consider raising taxes with lower retirement expenditures. She observes the probable outcome that the current debt-deficit dilemma may exacerbate as more baby-boomers retire with greater retirement and health care needs.
With respect to monetary policy decisions, Yellen advocates gradual interest rate increases for better inflation containment in light of strong wage growth and labor market momentum. The current key interest rate hike helps ensure the sound-and-stable scenario that the U.S. economy cannot overheat due to cyclical tides. As of November 2018, the Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate 3 times year-to-date, and stock analysts and economists expect the FOMC to approve another key interest rate increase in December 2018. Yellen expects the next U.S. economic recession to be far off until late-2020. The next recession should be mild (but not deep and terrible).
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-11-23 08:33:00 Saturday ET

MIT financial economist Simon Johnson rethinks capitalism with better key market incentives. Johnson refers to the recent Business Roundtable CEO statement
2018-03-21 06:32:00 Wednesday ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell increases the neutral interest rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% in his debut post-FOMC press conference. The Federal Reserve raises
2019-04-19 12:35:00 Friday ET

Federal Reserve proposes to revamp post-crisis rules for U.S. banks. The current proposals would prescribe materially less strict requirements for community
2019-02-09 08:33:00 Saturday ET

Apple provides positive forward guidance on both revenue and profit forecasts for iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks. In the Christmas 2018 festive season, MacBoo
2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward econo
2018-05-29 11:40:00 Tuesday ET

America and China, the modern world's most powerful nations may stumble into a **Thucydides trap** that Harvard professor and political scientist Graham