Janet Yellen worries about U.S. government debt accumulation, expects new interest rate increases, and warns of the next economic recession.

Amy Hamilton

2018-11-05 10:40:00 Mon ET

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen worries about U.S. government debt accumulation, expects new interest rate increases, and warns of the next economic recession. Yellen points out that the current fiscal debt-and-deficit trajectory is unsustainable in the long run. The famous Sargent-Wallace unpleasant monetarist arithmetic rule suggests that if the government continues to accumulate fiscal deficits, incessant government debt issuance would induce higher inflation in the form of seigniorage taxes. Yellen also suggests that the U.S. Treasury might want to consider raising taxes with lower retirement expenditures. She observes the probable outcome that the current debt-deficit dilemma may exacerbate as more baby-boomers retire with greater retirement and health care needs.

With respect to monetary policy decisions, Yellen advocates gradual interest rate increases for better inflation containment in light of strong wage growth and labor market momentum. The current key interest rate hike helps ensure the sound-and-stable scenario that the U.S. economy cannot overheat due to cyclical tides. As of November 2018, the Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate 3 times year-to-date, and stock analysts and economists expect the FOMC to approve another key interest rate increase in December 2018. Yellen expects the next U.S. economic recession to be far off until late-2020. The next recession should be mild (but not deep and terrible).

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Apple is now the world's biggest dividend payer with its $13 billion dividend payout.

Dan Rochefort

2017-04-19 17:37:00 Wednesday ET

Apple is now the world's biggest dividend payer with its $13 billion dividend payout.

Apple is now the world's biggest dividend payer with its $13 billion dividend payout and surpasses ExxonMobil's dividend payout record. Despite the

+See More

Value investment strategies make investors wiser like water with core fundamental factor analysis.

Jacob Miramar

2018-04-17 12:38:00 Tuesday ET

Value investment strategies make investors wiser like water with core fundamental factor analysis.

Value investment strategies make investors wiser like water with core fundamental factor analysis. Value investors tend to buy stocks below their intrinsic

+See More

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk.

Dan Rochefort

2018-02-15 07:43:00 Thursday ET

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk.

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk. FOMC members revise up the economic projections made at the Dece

+See More

A 7-year $1.3 billion hedge fund manager Chelsea Brennan shares her investment advice.

Laura Hermes

2018-10-05 10:38:00 Friday ET

A 7-year $1.3 billion hedge fund manager Chelsea Brennan shares her investment advice.

A 7-year $1.3 billion hedge fund manager Chelsea Brennan shares her investment advice. Her advice encompasses several steps toward better financial literacy

+See More

Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy.

Daphne Basel

2019-08-28 14:46:00 Wednesday ET

Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy.

Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy. Cohen fin

+See More

Most agile lean enterprises often choose to cut costs strategically to make their respective business models fit for growth.

Daphne Basel

2020-10-27 07:43:00 Tuesday ET

Most agile lean enterprises often choose to cut costs strategically to make their respective business models fit for growth.

Most agile lean enterprises often choose to cut costs strategically to make their respective business models fit for growth. Vinay Couto, John Plansky,

+See More