2018-07-09 09:39:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Federal Reserve raises the interest rate again in mid-2018 in response to 2% inflation and wage growth. The current neutral interest rate hike neither boosts nor constrains inflationary pressure. FOMC minutes reveal some members' concerns about whether the Trump tariffs would dampen robust macroeconomic momentum and full employment. When western allies such as Canada, Europe, and Mexico lash back with retaliatory steel and aluminum tariffs, this ripple effect may weaken 2.7%-3% U.S. economic growth and production. Both capital equipment and risky asset investments may deteriorate in light of international trade frictions.
Also, FOMC members express their concern about potential yield curve inversion that might signal the dawn of an economic recession. Whether a recession lurks around the corner remains an open controversy. While both stock market valuation and domestic demand continue to indicate investor optimism, the core term spread between short-and-long-term interest rates warns of potential output contraction.
In light of its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rate twice in the second half of 2018. The current interest rate hike may continue above the neutral threshold sometime in mid-2019.
On balance, the recent Fed Chair transition from Yellen to Powell reflects the fact that the medium-term monetary policy stance has shifted from dovish to hawkish. A dovish monetary policy stance focuses on attaining full employment, whereas, a hawkish stance emphasizes inflation containment.
This monetary policy transition is a major inflection point that shines fresh light on the inexorable and mysterious New Keynesian trade-off between price stability and employment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-11-11 13:42:00 Sunday ET

Michael Bloomberg provides $80 million as campaign finance for Democrats to flip the House of Representatives in the November 2018 midterm elections, gears
2018-03-19 10:37:00 Monday ET

Uber's autonomous car causes the first known pedestrian fatality from a driverless vehicle and thus sets off the alarm bell for artificial intelligence.
2017-01-27 17:19:00 Friday ET

Tony Robbins explains in his latest book on personal finance that *patience* is the top secret to successful stock investment. The stock market embeds an
2018-07-11 09:39:00 Wednesday ET

In recent times, the Trump administration sees the sweet state of U.S. economic expansion as of early-July 2018. The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey
2019-10-29 13:36:00 Tuesday ET

The OECD projects global growth to decline from 3.2% to 2.9% in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. This global economic growth projection represents the slo
2020-09-11 10:22:00 Friday ET

AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools. In recent times, we have completed our fresh website up