2018-07-09 09:39:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Federal Reserve raises the interest rate again in mid-2018 in response to 2% inflation and wage growth. The current neutral interest rate hike neither boosts nor constrains inflationary pressure. FOMC minutes reveal some members' concerns about whether the Trump tariffs would dampen robust macroeconomic momentum and full employment. When western allies such as Canada, Europe, and Mexico lash back with retaliatory steel and aluminum tariffs, this ripple effect may weaken 2.7%-3% U.S. economic growth and production. Both capital equipment and risky asset investments may deteriorate in light of international trade frictions.
Also, FOMC members express their concern about potential yield curve inversion that might signal the dawn of an economic recession. Whether a recession lurks around the corner remains an open controversy. While both stock market valuation and domestic demand continue to indicate investor optimism, the core term spread between short-and-long-term interest rates warns of potential output contraction.
In light of its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rate twice in the second half of 2018. The current interest rate hike may continue above the neutral threshold sometime in mid-2019.
On balance, the recent Fed Chair transition from Yellen to Powell reflects the fact that the medium-term monetary policy stance has shifted from dovish to hawkish. A dovish monetary policy stance focuses on attaining full employment, whereas, a hawkish stance emphasizes inflation containment.
This monetary policy transition is a major inflection point that shines fresh light on the inexorable and mysterious New Keynesian trade-off between price stability and employment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-08-18 11:33:00 Sunday ET

House Judiciary Committee summons senior executive reps of the tech titans to assess online platforms and their market power. These companies are Facebook,
2020-05-07 08:26:00 Thursday ET

Disruptive innovators often apply their 5 major pragmatic skills in new blue-ocean niche discovery and market share dominance. Jeff Dyer, Hal Gregersen,
2020-11-17 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation. Alan Weiss (2016)
2018-08-17 11:45:00 Friday ET

In accordance with the extant corporate disclosure rules and requirements, all U.S. public corporations have to report their balance sheets, income statemen
2019-08-14 10:31:00 Wednesday ET

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes. The company adds only 2.7 million new subscribers in 2019Q2 in stark
2017-12-19 09:39:00 Tuesday ET

From Oprah Winfrey to Bill Gates, this infographic visualization summarizes the key habits and investment styles of highly successful entrepreneurs: