Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may lead to an economic recession as credit supply growth ebbs and flows through the business cycle.

Monica McNeil

2018-06-14 10:35:00 Thu ET

The Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike may lead to the next economic recession as credit supply growth ebbs and flows through the business cycle. All of the 35 U.S. large banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo pass the annual stress test and thus would be able to lend even under the grimmest economic conditions. During the Trump administration, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve may roll back at least some of the Dodd-Frank rules and regulations.

These extreme economic conditions include 10% unemployment, a sharp decline in general house prices, and a severe recession in Europe and elsewhere. Even under these dire conditions, the big banks hold sufficient capital buffers that would exceed the financial-sector equity claims back in the years just before the Global Financial Crisis. The Federal Reserve retains the final veto power to restrict any dividend hikes or share repurchases that the banks may pursue in order to return cash distributions to their shareholders.

It is important for financial intermediaries to substantially increase their core equity capital buffers in order to safeguard against extreme losses that might arise in rare times of financial stress such as the Global Financial Crisis from 2008 to 2009.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
Thomas Piketty empirically shows that the top 1% cohort rakes in 20%+ of U.S. national income.
Daisy Harvey

2018-09-01 07:34:00 Saturday ET

Thomas Piketty empirically shows that the top 1% cohort rakes in 20%+ of U.S. national income.

As the French economist who studies global economic inequality in his recent book *Capital in the New Century*, Thomas Piketty co-authors with John Bates Cl

+See More
Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes.
Rose Prince

2019-08-14 10:31:00 Wednesday ET

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes.

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes. The company adds only 2.7 million new subscribers in 2019Q2 in stark

+See More
The Federal Reserve proposes softening the Volcker rule that prevents banks from placing risky bets on securities with deposit finance.
James Campbell

2018-05-27 08:33:00 Sunday ET

The Federal Reserve proposes softening the Volcker rule that prevents banks from placing risky bets on securities with deposit finance.

The Federal Reserve proposes softening the Volcker rule that prevents banks from placing risky bets on securities with deposit finance. As part of the po

+See More
The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Federal Reserve halts the next interest rate hike in May 2019.
Olivia London

2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Federal Reserve halts the next interest rate hike in May 2019.

The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward econo

+See More
What are the primary pros and cons of free trade or fair trade in the current Sino-American quagmire?
Jonah Whanau

2018-05-02 06:32:00 Wednesday ET

What are the primary pros and cons of free trade or fair trade in the current Sino-American quagmire?

What are the primary pros and cons of free trade or fair trade in the current Sino-American quagmire? Free trade means allowing goods and services to move a

+See More
The social media factor serves as a new measure of investor sentiment in addition to the fundamental factors.
Rose Prince

2017-05-07 06:39:00 Sunday ET

The social media factor serves as a new measure of investor sentiment in addition to the fundamental factors.

While the original five-factor asset pricing model arises from a quasi-lifetime of top empirical research by Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama and his long-time co

+See More