Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may lead to an economic recession as credit supply growth ebbs and flows through the business cycle.

Monica McNeil

2018-06-14 10:35:00 Thu ET

The Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike may lead to the next economic recession as credit supply growth ebbs and flows through the business cycle. All of the 35 U.S. large banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo pass the annual stress test and thus would be able to lend even under the grimmest economic conditions. During the Trump administration, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve may roll back at least some of the Dodd-Frank rules and regulations.

These extreme economic conditions include 10% unemployment, a sharp decline in general house prices, and a severe recession in Europe and elsewhere. Even under these dire conditions, the big banks hold sufficient capital buffers that would exceed the financial-sector equity claims back in the years just before the Global Financial Crisis. The Federal Reserve retains the final veto power to restrict any dividend hikes or share repurchases that the banks may pursue in order to return cash distributions to their shareholders.

It is important for financial intermediaries to substantially increase their core equity capital buffers in order to safeguard against extreme losses that might arise in rare times of financial stress such as the Global Financial Crisis from 2008 to 2009.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
Macro eigenvalue volatility helps predict some recent episodes of high economic policy uncertainty.
James Campbell

2020-09-15 08:38:00 Tuesday ET

Macro eigenvalue volatility helps predict some recent episodes of high economic policy uncertainty.

Macro eigenvalue volatility helps predict some recent episodes of high economic policy uncertainty, recession risk, or rare events such as the recent rampan

+See More
The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.
Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliate

+See More
Blackrock asset research director Andrew Ang shares his economic insights into fundamental factors for global asset management.
Apple Boston

2019-07-29 11:33:00 Monday ET

Blackrock asset research director Andrew Ang shares his economic insights into fundamental factors for global asset management.

Blackrock asset research director Andrew Ang shares his economic insights into fundamental factors for global asset management. As Ang indicates in an inter

+See More
Tony Robbins recommends portfolio optimization only once a year.
Laura Hermes

2017-02-19 07:41:00 Sunday ET

Tony Robbins recommends portfolio optimization only once a year.

In his recent book on personal finance, Tony Robbins recommends that each investor should rebalance his or her investment portfolio *only once a year* to in

+See More
Amazon follows Apple to become the second U.S. public corporation to hit $1 trillion stock market valuation.
Dan Rochefort

2018-09-03 09:31:00 Monday ET

Amazon follows Apple to become the second U.S. public corporation to hit $1 trillion stock market valuation.

Amazon follows Apple to become the second American public corporation to hit $1 trillion stock market valuation. Amazon's founder and chairman Jeff Bezo

+See More
Edge strategies help business leaders improve core products and services in a more cost-effective and less risky way.
John Fourier

2020-09-24 10:26:00 Thursday ET

Edge strategies help business leaders improve core products and services in a more cost-effective and less risky way.

Edge strategies help business leaders improve core products and services in a more cost-effective and less risky way. Alan Lewis and Dan McKone (2016)

+See More