2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-08-07 07:33:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump sounds smart when he comes up with a fresh plan to retire $15 trillion national debt. This plan entails taxing American consumers and produc
2019-07-09 15:14:00 Tuesday ET
The Chinese new star board launches for tech firms to list at home. The Nasdaq-equivalent new star board serves as a key avenue for Chinese tech companies t
2019-07-31 11:34:00 Wednesday ET
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube July 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of July 2019: (1) All 18 systemical
2019-09-17 08:33:00 Tuesday ET
Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn. Many stock market investors become anxious due to negative term spreads an
2022-02-02 10:33:00 Wednesday ET
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2022. As of early-January 2023, the U.S. Patent and Trademark O
2022-05-15 10:29:00 Sunday ET
Innovative investment theory and practice Corporate investment can be in the form of real tangible investment or intangible investment. The former conce