The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff analyze long-run crisis data to find the root causes of financial crises for better bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization.

Laura Hermes

2023-06-28 09:29:00 Wednesday ET

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff analyze long-run crisis data to find the root causes of financial crises for better bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization.

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff delve into several centuries of cross-country crisis data to find the key root causes of financial crises for asset marke

+See More

Can the Chinese renminbi become the next dual global reserve currency in addition to the American dollar?

Daphne Basel

2020-08-01 07:28:00 Saturday ET

Can the Chinese renminbi become the next dual global reserve currency in addition to the American dollar?

Technological advances, geopolitical risks, and pandemic outbreaks cannot shake investor confidence in the American dollar as the global reserve currency.

+See More

President Trump announces the new trilateral trade agreement among America, Canada, and Mexico.

Chanel Holden

2018-10-01 07:33:00 Monday ET

President Trump announces the new trilateral trade agreement among America, Canada, and Mexico.

President Trump announces the new trilateral trade agreement among America, Canada, and Mexico: the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaces and revamp

+See More

Apple adds fresh features to its new iPad Pro and MacBook Air in addition to its prior suite of iPhones.

Joseph Corr

2018-11-03 11:36:00 Saturday ET

Apple adds fresh features to its new iPad Pro and MacBook Air in addition to its prior suite of iPhones.

Apple adds fresh features to its new iPad Pro and MacBook Air in addition to its prior suite of iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and iPhone XR back in September 20

+See More

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

James Campbell

2019-08-24 14:38:00 Saturday ET

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

Warren Buffett warns that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.

+See More

Former LSE Director Howard Davies shares his ingenious insights into the new Basel 4 accord.

Chanel Holden

2018-01-01 06:30:00 Monday ET

Former LSE Director Howard Davies shares his ingenious insights into the new Basel 4 accord.

As former chairman of the British Financial Services Authority and former director of the London School of Economics, Howard Davies shares his ingenious ins

+See More