The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Gold prices surge above $1400 per ounce amid global trade tension and economic policy uncertainty.

Charlene Vos

2019-07-17 12:37:00 Wednesday ET

Gold prices surge above $1400 per ounce amid global trade tension and economic policy uncertainty.

Gold prices surge above $1400 per ounce amid global trade tension and economic policy uncertainty. Both European Central Bank and Bank of Japan may consider

+See More

Just Capital issues a new report in support of the stakeholder value proposition in recent times.

Amy Hamilton

2018-06-05 07:36:00 Tuesday ET

Just Capital issues a new report in support of the stakeholder value proposition in recent times.

Just Capital issues a new report in support of the stakeholder value proposition in recent times. U.S. corporations that perform best on key priorities such

+See More

The global pandemic crisis helps reshape international finance, trade, and technology.

James Campbell

2021-02-01 10:19:00 Monday ET

The global pandemic crisis helps reshape international finance, trade, and technology.

In recent times, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the fiscal-debt-to-GDP ratio of most rich economies would rise from 95% in 2018 to 135%

+See More

Trump garners support from Senate and House of Representatives to pass the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul.

Daisy Harvey

2017-11-17 09:42:00 Friday ET

Trump garners support from Senate and House of Representatives to pass the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul.

The Trump administration garners congressional support from both Senate and the House of Representatives to pass the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul (Tax Cuts &a

+See More

Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network platform: major milestones, key product features, and online social media services

Joseph Corr

2026-01-19 10:30:00 Monday ET

Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network platform: major milestones, key product features, and online social media services

  Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network platform: major milestones, key product features, and online social media services   Introduction

+See More

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

Apple Boston

2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tuesday ET

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasur

+See More