The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum.

Daphne Basel

2018-05-05 07:33:00 Saturday ET

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum.

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum in May 2018 despite the new GA

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2018-11-30 12:42:00 Friday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube November 2018 AYA Analytica is our online regular podcast and news

+See More

David Solomon succeeds Lloyd Blankfein as the new CEO of Goldman Sachs.

Fiona Sydney

2018-03-09 08:33:00 Friday ET

David Solomon succeeds Lloyd Blankfein as the new CEO of Goldman Sachs.

David Solomon succeeds Lloyd Blankfein as the new CEO of Goldman Sachs. Unlike his predecessors Lloyd Blankfein and Gary Cohn, Solomon has been an investmen

+See More

President Trump introduces $50 billion tariffs on Chinese products and new limits on Chinese high-tech investments in America.

Apple Boston

2018-05-25 07:30:00 Friday ET

President Trump introduces $50 billion tariffs on Chinese products and new limits on Chinese high-tech investments in America.

President Trump introduces $50 billion tariffs on Chinese products and new limits on Chinese high-tech investments in America. This new round of tariffs

+See More

The Economist interviews President Trump and spots the keyword *reciprocity* from trade to taxation.

Amy Hamilton

2017-07-01 08:40:00 Saturday ET

The Economist interviews President Trump and spots the keyword *reciprocity* from trade to taxation.

The Economist interviews President Donald Trump and spots the keyword *reciprocity* in many aspects of Trumponomics from trade and taxation to infrastructur

+See More

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit.

Joseph Corr

2019-08-04 08:26:00 Sunday ET

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit.

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit in Japan.

+See More