2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-12-14 12:41:00 Thursday ET

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.25% to 1.5% as FOMC members revise up their GDP estimate from 2% to 2.5
2017-10-15 07:38:00 Sunday ET

Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both press the case for GOP tax legislation as economic relief for the middle-class without substantial t
2019-03-11 10:32:00 Monday ET

Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence over the rideshare tech unic
2020-04-10 11:33:00 Friday ET

Elon Musk envisions a bold fantastic future with his professional trifecta of lean startup enterprises SolarCity, SpaceX, and Tesla. Ashlee Vance (2015)
2020-10-06 09:31:00 Tuesday ET

Strategic managers envision lofty purposes to enjoy incremental consistent progress over time. Allison Rimm (2015) The joy of strategy: a bu
2019-10-25 07:49:00 Friday ET

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years. The current U.S. Treasury fiscal budget deficit rises from $779 billion to $1.0