The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.
Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%.  Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.

U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
Top 4 U.S. richest people are self-made billionaires: Gates, Buffet, Bloomberg, and Zuckerberg.
Dan Rochefort

2017-08-01 09:40:00 Tuesday ET

Top 4 U.S. richest people are self-made billionaires: Gates, Buffet, Bloomberg, and Zuckerberg.

In American states, all of the Top 4 richest people are self-made billionaires: Bill Gates in Washington, Warren Buffett in Nebraska, Michael Bloomberg in N

+See More
AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market issues and economic trends for better and wiser investment decisions.
Daphne Basel

2019-07-31 11:34:00 Wednesday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market issues and economic trends for better and wiser investment decisions.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube July 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of July 2019: (1) All 18 systemical

+See More
Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota.
Daisy Harvey

2020-07-19 09:25:00 Sunday ET

Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota.

Senior business leaders can learn much from the lean production system with iterative continuous improvements at Toyota. Takehiko Harada (2015)  

+See More
President Trump praises great unity and progress at the G7 summit.
Rose Prince

2019-09-21 09:25:00 Saturday ET

President Trump praises great unity and progress at the G7 summit.

President Trump praises great unity and progress at the G7 summit with respect to Sino-U.S. trade conflict resolution, global climate change, containment fo

+See More
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal.
James Campbell

2019-03-23 09:31:00 Saturday ET

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal.

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal. In accordance with the modern

+See More
AYA fintech finbuzz illustrative video tutorials on YouTube
Amy Hamilton

2019-05-05 10:46:10 Sunday ET

AYA fintech finbuzz illustrative video tutorials on YouTube

This video collection shows the major features of our AYA fintech network platform for stock market investors: (1) AYA stock market content curation;&nbs

+See More