The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%.  Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.

U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father.

Olivia London

2019-11-01 12:31:00 Friday ET

Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father.

Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father. This advice reminds her that money just cannot buy happiness. As the eldest of the Kardash

+See More

David Solomon succeeds Lloyd Blankfein as the new CEO of Goldman Sachs.

Fiona Sydney

2018-03-09 08:33:00 Friday ET

David Solomon succeeds Lloyd Blankfein as the new CEO of Goldman Sachs.

David Solomon succeeds Lloyd Blankfein as the new CEO of Goldman Sachs. Unlike his predecessors Lloyd Blankfein and Gary Cohn, Solomon has been an investmen

+See More

The Trump administration expects to reach an interim partial trade deal with China.

Jacob Miramar

2019-11-05 07:41:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump administration expects to reach an interim partial trade deal with China.

The Trump administration expects to reach an interim partial trade deal with China. This interim partial trade deal represents the first phase of a comprehe

+See More

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg delves into how we can change our lives for the better by mastering our habits from day to day.

Monica McNeil

2025-06-05 00:00:00 Thursday ET

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg delves into how we can change our lives for the better by mastering our habits from day to day.

Former New York Times team journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Charles Duhigg describes, discusses, and delves into how we can change our respective lives

+See More

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination

Becky Berkman

2023-12-07 07:22:00 Thursday ET

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination

Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination Traditionally, fiscal and monetary policies were made incrementally. In

+See More

Joel Mokyr suggests that economic growth arises from a change in cultural beliefs toward technological progress.

John Fourier

2023-11-07 11:31:00 Tuesday ET

Joel Mokyr suggests that economic growth arises from a change in cultural beliefs toward technological progress.

Joel Mokyr suggests that economic growth arises from a change in cultural beliefs toward technological progress. Joel Mokyr (2018)   A culture

+See More