The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%.  Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.

U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution.

Monica McNeil

2019-02-05 10:32:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution.

President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution of both trade deficit eradication and tech transfer enforcement. Trump now s

+See More

Yale macro economist Stephen Roach draws 3 major conclusions with respect to the Chinese long-run view of the current tech trade conflict with America.

Joseph Corr

2019-09-05 09:26:00 Thursday ET

Yale macro economist Stephen Roach draws 3 major conclusions with respect to the Chinese long-run view of the current tech trade conflict with America.

Yale macro economist Stephen Roach draws 3 major conclusions with respect to the Chinese long-run view of the current tech trade conflict with America. Firs

+See More

Timothy Geithner shares his reflections on the post-crisis macro financial stress tests for U.S. banks.

Fiona Sydney

2023-04-07 12:29:00 Friday ET

Timothy Geithner shares his reflections on the post-crisis macro financial stress tests for U.S. banks.

Timothy Geithner shares his reflections on the post-crisis macro financial stress tests for U.S. banks. Timothy Geithner (2014)   Macrofinanci

+See More

Admitting China to the WTO seems ineffective in imparting economic freedom and democracy to the communist regime.

Dan Rochefort

2018-07-27 10:35:00 Friday ET

Admitting China to the WTO seems ineffective in imparting economic freedom and democracy to the communist regime.

Admitting China to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and other international activities seems ineffective in imparting economic freedom and democracy to th

+See More

Business leaders often think from a systemic perspective, share bold visions, build great teams, and learn new business models.

Becky Berkman

2020-08-05 08:33:00 Wednesday ET

Business leaders often think from a systemic perspective, share bold visions, build great teams, and learn new business models.

Business leaders often think from a systemic perspective, share bold visions, build great teams, and learn new business models. Peter Senge (2006) &nb

+See More

Scientific research trumps basic intuition and common sense.

Amy Hamilton

2019-08-30 11:35:00 Friday ET

Scientific research trumps basic intuition and common sense.

The conventional wisdom suggests that chameleons change their skin coloration to camouflage their presence for survival through Darwinian biological evoluti

+See More