2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET
technology antitrust competition bilateral trade free trade fair trade trade agreement trade surplus trade deficit multilateralism neoliberalism world trade organization regulation public utility current account compliance
The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%. Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.
U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-10-21 08:45:00 Saturday ET

Netflix stares at higher content costs as Disney and Fox hold merger talks. Disney has held talks to acquire most of 21st Century Fox's business equity.
2018-10-11 08:44:00 Thursday ET

Treasury bond yield curve inversion often signals the next economic recession in America. In fact, U.S. bond yield curve inversion correctly predicts the da
2017-02-07 07:47:00 Tuesday ET

With prescient clairvoyance, Bill Gates predicted the recent sustainable rise of Netflix and Facebook during a Playboy interview back in 1994. He said th
2018-07-19 18:38:00 Thursday ET

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius proposes designing a new Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to be a weighted-average of interest rates, exchange rat
2018-06-03 07:35:00 Sunday ET

Several recent events explain why Trump may undermine multilateral world order. First, Trump withdraws the U.S. from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership
2019-01-13 12:37:00 Sunday ET

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development. Upon successful campaign completion, we will provide an eb