The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%.  Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.

U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Peter Schuck analyzes U.S. government failures and structural problems in light of both institutions and incentives.

Dan Rochefort

2023-04-28 16:38:00 Friday ET

Peter Schuck analyzes U.S. government failures and structural problems in light of both institutions and incentives.

Peter Schuck analyzes U.S. government failures and structural problems in light of both institutions and incentives. Peter Schuck (2015)   Why

+See More

Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Matthew Rabin assess the recent advances in the behavioral economic science.

James Campbell

2023-09-14 09:28:00 Thursday ET

Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Matthew Rabin assess the recent advances in the behavioral economic science.

Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Matthew Rabin assess the recent advances in the behavioral economic science. Colin Camerer, George Loewenstei

+See More

President Trump withdraws America from the Iran nuclear agreement and revives economic sanctions on Iran for better negotiations.

Chanel Holden

2018-05-06 07:30:00 Sunday ET

President Trump withdraws America from the Iran nuclear agreement and revives economic sanctions on Iran for better negotiations.

President Trump withdraws America from the Iran nuclear agreement and revives economic sanctions on Iran for better negotiations as western allies Britain,

+See More

AYA free finbuzz ebook *Trump economic reform* as of January 2019

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-01-31 08:40:00 Thursday ET

AYA free finbuzz ebook *Trump economic reform* as of January 2019

We offer a free ebook on the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment memes as of January 2019:  https://www.dropbox.com/s/4d8z

+See More

President Trump blames the Federal Reserve for its *crazy tight* interest rate hike.

Becky Berkman

2018-10-13 10:44:00 Saturday ET

President Trump blames the Federal Reserve for its *crazy tight* interest rate hike.

Dow Jones tumbles 3% or 831 points while NASDAQ tanks 4%, and this negative investor sentiment rips through most European and Asian stock markets in early-O

+See More

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics, economic trends, and personal finance inspirations as of October 2019.

Daphne Basel

2019-10-31 13:38:00 Thursday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics, economic trends, and personal finance inspirations as of October 2019.

  AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube October 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of October 2019: (1)

+See More