2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET
technology antitrust competition bilateral trade free trade fair trade trade agreement trade surplus trade deficit multilateralism neoliberalism world trade organization regulation public utility current account compliance
The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%. Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.
U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-12-04 12:30:00 Monday ET

Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle Abstract We assess the quantitative effects of the recent proposal
2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tuesday ET

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasur
2023-11-28 11:35:00 Tuesday ET

David Colander and Craig Freedman argue that economics went wrong when there was no neoclassical firewall between economic theories and policy reforms. D
2025-06-20 08:27:00 Friday ET

President Trump poses new threats to Fed Chair monetary policy independence again. We describe, discuss, and delve into the mainstream reasons, conc
2025-07-12 11:35:00 Saturday ET

Mitch Anthony explains why it is now more important for top sales leaders to apply social skills and emotional competences to fulfill customer needs, wants,
2021-05-20 10:30:00 Thursday ET

Artificial intelligence, 5G, and virtual reality can help transform global trade, finance, and technology. Core trade technological advances and disruptive