The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%.  Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.

U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

San Francisco Fed CEO Mary Daly suggests that trade escalation is not the only risk in the global economy.

Rose Prince

2019-06-19 09:27:00 Wednesday ET

San Francisco Fed CEO Mary Daly suggests that trade escalation is not the only risk in the global economy.

San Francisco Fed CEO Mary Daly suggests that trade escalation is not the only risk in the global economy. Due to the current Sino-U.S. trade tension, the g

+See More

With its novel SnapChat app, Snap IPO achieves $30 billion stock market valuation!

Olivia London

2017-03-03 05:39:00 Friday ET

With its novel SnapChat app, Snap IPO achieves $30 billion stock market valuation!

As the biggest IPO since Alibaba in recent years, Snap Inc with its novel instant-messaging app SnapChat achieves $30 billion stock market capitalization.

+See More

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in November 2018.

Peter Prince

2018-11-27 10:37:00 Tuesday ET

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in November 2018.

Warren Buffett offloads a few stocks from the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in mid-November 2018. The latest S.E.C. report shows that the Oracle of Omaha sol

+See More

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics and economic trends for better stock investment decisions.

Amy Hamilton

2019-08-31 14:39:00 Saturday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics and economic trends for better stock investment decisions.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube August 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of August 2019: (1) Warren B

+See More

Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King provides his deep substantive analysis of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009.

Monica McNeil

2023-03-07 11:29:00 Tuesday ET

Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King provides his deep substantive analysis of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009.

Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King provides his deep substantive analysis of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Mervyn King (2017) &nb

+See More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2021.

Apple Boston

2021-02-02 14:24:00 Tuesday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2021.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. We implement

+See More