The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%.  Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.

U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The Federal Reserve System conducts monetary policy decisions, interest rate adjustments, and inter-bank payment operations.

Dan Rochefort

2023-03-28 11:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Federal Reserve System conducts monetary policy decisions, interest rate adjustments, and inter-bank payment operations.

The Federal Reserve System conducts monetary policy decisions, interest rate adjustments, and inter-bank payment operations. Peter Conti-Brown (2017)

+See More

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-01-13 12:37:00 Sunday ET

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development.

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development. Upon successful campaign completion, we will provide an eb

+See More

With prescient clairvoyance, Bill Gates predicted the recent rise of Facebook and Netflix.

Monica McNeil

2017-02-07 07:47:00 Tuesday ET

With prescient clairvoyance, Bill Gates predicted the recent rise of Facebook and Netflix.

With prescient clairvoyance, Bill Gates predicted the recent sustainable rise of Netflix and Facebook during a Playboy interview back in 1994. He said th

+See More

Daniel Goleman explains why working with emotional intelligence helps hone our social skills for smarter, better, and more effective leaders, teams, and organizations in modern life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Fiona Sydney

2025-07-05 11:23:00 Saturday ET

Daniel Goleman explains why working with emotional intelligence helps hone our social skills for smarter, better, and more effective leaders, teams, and organizations in modern life, business, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Former New York Times science author and Harvard psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why working with emotional intelligence helps hone our social skills f

+See More

Warwick macroeconomic expert Roger Farmer proposes paying for social welfare programs with no tax hikes.

Jonah Whanau

2019-07-05 09:32:00 Friday ET

Warwick macroeconomic expert Roger Farmer proposes paying for social welfare programs with no tax hikes.

Warwick macroeconomic expert Roger Farmer proposes paying for social welfare programs with no tax hikes. The U.S. government pension and Medicare liabilitie

+See More

Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in several ways.

Jonah Whanau

2017-06-21 05:36:00 Wednesday ET

Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in several ways.

In his latest Berkshire Hathaway annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in seve

+See More