2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET
technology antitrust competition bilateral trade free trade fair trade trade agreement trade surplus trade deficit multilateralism neoliberalism world trade organization regulation public utility current account compliance
The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%. Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.
U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-06-14 10:26:00 Wednesday ET

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show that good inclusive institutions contribute to better long-run economic growth. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
2019-06-15 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliate
2018-08-21 11:40:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump criticizes his new Fed Chair Jerome Powell for accelerating the current interest rate hike with greenback strength. This criticism overshado
2023-02-03 08:27:00 Friday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2023. Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the ma
2022-11-05 11:32:00 Saturday ET

CEO overconfidence and corporate performance Malmendier and Tate (JFE 2008, JF 2005) argue that overconfident CEOs are more likely to initiate mergers an
2019-01-11 10:33:00 Friday ET

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to track major business risks in light of volatile stock markets, elections, and geopolitics. EIU monitors g