The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%.  Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.

U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Rampant stock market fears shake investor confidence during the recent Fed Chair transition from Yellen to Powell.

Charlene Vos

2018-02-03 07:42:00 Saturday ET

Rampant stock market fears shake investor confidence during the recent Fed Chair transition from Yellen to Powell.

Quant Quake 2.0 shakes investor confidence with rampant stock market fears and doubts during the recent Fed Chair transition from Janet Yellen to Jerome Pow

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Apple (U.S. stock symbol: $AAPL).

Laura Hermes

2025-09-13 12:23:00 Saturday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Apple (U.S. stock symbol: $AAPL).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-02-01 15:35:00 Friday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. We implem

+See More

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

Dan Rochefort

2023-04-14 13:32:00 Friday ET

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Charles Calomiris an

+See More

Foreign majority owners offer Sprint and T-Mobile to stop using HuaWei critical technologies after the U.S. telecom merger.

Daphne Basel

2018-12-20 13:40:00 Thursday ET

Foreign majority owners offer Sprint and T-Mobile to stop using HuaWei critical technologies after the U.S. telecom merger.

T-Mobile and Sprint indicate that the U.S. is likely to approve their merger plan as they take the offer from foreign owners to stop using HuaWei telecom te

+See More

Today, tech titans continue to reshape and even disrupt global pharmaceutical investments for both better healthspan and longer lifespan.

John Fourier

2026-10-31 12:38:00 Saturday ET

Today, tech titans continue to reshape and even disrupt global pharmaceutical investments for both better healthspan and longer lifespan.

Today tech titans and billionaires continue to reshape global pharmaceutical investments for both better healthspan and longer lifespan. We discuss, desc

+See More