2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET
technology antitrust competition bilateral trade free trade fair trade trade agreement trade surplus trade deficit multilateralism neoliberalism world trade organization regulation public utility current account compliance
The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%. Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.
U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-06-21 05:36:00 Wednesday ET

In his latest Berkshire Hathaway annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in seve
2018-12-15 14:38:00 Saturday ET

Google CEO Sundar Pichai makes his debut testimony before Congress. The post-mid-term-election House Judiciary Committee bombards Pichai with key questions
2023-09-28 08:26:00 Thursday ET

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show a constant economic tussle between society and the state in the hot pursuit of liberty. Daron Acemoglu and James R
2017-11-25 06:34:00 Saturday ET

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, heads the international committee of financial supervisors and has declared their landmark agreement o
2020-08-19 10:32:00 Wednesday ET

Corporate strategies, portfolio choices, and management memes add value and drive business process improvements over time. Andrew Campbell, Jo Whitehead,
2019-02-01 15:35:00 Friday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. We implem