The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion.

Monica McNeil

2019-06-15 10:28:00 Sat ET

The Sino-American trade war may slash global GDP by $600 billion. If the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all the Chinese imports and China retaliates with countermeasures, the global stock market may decline by 10%. In this worst-case scenario, Bloomberg expects global GDP to fall 0.6% or $600 billion by mid-2021. The same simulation suggests that both U.S. and Chinese economic output may decline by 0.7% to 1%.  Several countries such as Canada and Europe rely heavily on Sino-American trade and so may suffer as a result. In terms of better balancing the bilateral trade deficit, this deficit has indeed declined from $91 billion to $80 billion from 2018Q1 to 2019Q1 (as the Trump tariffs come into effect). Further, the current U.S. CPI inflation hovers in the range of 1.6% to 1.9% (still below the 2% target level). This fact thus defies the Chinese allegation that the Trump tariffs may substantially raise the Chinese import prices with substantial inflationary pressure.

U.S. retail sales growth continues to slow down even though American consumer confidence rebounds in early-2019 due to higher wages and inelastic labor market conditions. The recent 8% renminbi devaluation coincides with the 25% Chinese stock market plunge and less foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Facebook, Twitter, and Google executives explain the scope of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.

Apple Boston

2017-09-19 05:34:00 Tuesday ET

Facebook, Twitter, and Google executives explain the scope of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.

Facebook, Twitter, and Google executives head before the Senate Judiciary Committee to explain the scope of Russian interference in the U.S. presidential el

+See More

Tony Robbins explains in his latest book on personal finance that *patience* is the top secret.

Becky Berkman

2017-01-27 17:19:00 Friday ET

Tony Robbins explains in his latest book on personal finance that *patience* is the top secret.

Tony Robbins explains in his latest book on personal finance that *patience* is the top secret to successful stock investment. The stock market embeds an

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Uber Technologies (U.S. stock symbol: $UBER).

Daphne Basel

2025-10-10 12:31:00 Friday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Uber Technologies (U.S. stock symbol: $UBER).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate to the target range of 2.25% to 2.5% as of December 2018.

Charlene Vos

2018-12-22 14:38:00 Saturday ET

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate to the target range of 2.25% to 2.5% as of December 2018.

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate to the target range of 2.25% to 2.5% as of December 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlights the dovish interest ra

+See More

Capital market liberalization and globalization connect global financial markets to allow an ocean of money to flow through them.

Becky Berkman

2018-06-17 10:35:00 Sunday ET

Capital market liberalization and globalization connect global financial markets to allow an ocean of money to flow through them.

In the past decades, capital market liberalization and globalization have combined to connect global financial markets to allow an ocean of money to flow th

+See More

Bridgewater hedge fund founder Ray Dalio suggests that the current state of U.S. capitalism poses an existential threat for many Americans.

Daphne Basel

2019-04-25 09:35:00 Thursday ET

Bridgewater hedge fund founder Ray Dalio suggests that the current state of U.S. capitalism poses an existential threat for many Americans.

Bridgewater hedge fund founder Ray Dalio suggests that the current state of U.S. capitalism poses an existential threat for many Americans. Dalio deems the

+See More