The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

Fiona Sydney

2019-08-02 17:39:00 Fri ET

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disagrees with Harvard macro economist Gregory Mankiw with respect to the mysterious and inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. It is difficult to depict a key downward Phillips curve for the post-war period because there is no conclusive trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This empirical result remains true even when we consider alternative measures of U.S. inflation such as the deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core consumer price index (CPI) inflation less food and energy. Furthermore, the empirical result continues to hold in practice when we consider the economic output gap in lieu of the unemployment rate. Cochrane suggests no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the Phillips cloud. In other words, the Phillips curve is too flat to be true.

This analysis poses a conceptual challenge to New Keynesians who seek to attain the Federal Reserve dual mandate of both price stability and maximum sustainable employment. The central bank can constrain money supply growth as a potential source of economic disturbance; yet, the long-term welfare cost of low inflation has no real impact on economic output, employment, and capital investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

AYA fintech finbuzz illustrative video tutorials on YouTube

Amy Hamilton

2019-05-05 10:46:10 Sunday ET

AYA fintech finbuzz illustrative video tutorials on YouTube

This video collection shows the major features of our AYA fintech network platform for stock market investors: (1) AYA stock market content curation;&nbs

+See More

Clayton Christensen defines the core dilemma of corporate innovation with sustainable and disruptive advances.

Daisy Harvey

2020-04-17 07:23:00 Friday ET

Clayton Christensen defines the core dilemma of corporate innovation with sustainable and disruptive advances.

Clayton Christensen defines and delves into the core dilemma of corporate innovation with sustainable and disruptive advances. Clayton Christensen (2000)

+See More

Capital structure choices for private firms

James Campbell

2022-09-15 11:38:00 Thursday ET

Capital structure choices for private firms

Capital structure choices for private firms The Kauffman Firm Survey (KFS) database provides comprehensive panel data on 5,000+ American private firms fr

+See More

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

Daisy Harvey

2018-01-04 07:36:00 Thursday ET

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options. Some recent U.S. Federal Reserve data suggest that both income and wealth inequal

+See More

Public sentiment turns quite a bit against Facebook in light of the public issues around fake news.

Apple Boston

2017-12-03 08:37:00 Sunday ET

Public sentiment turns quite a bit against Facebook in light of the public issues around fake news.

Sean Parker, Napster founder and a former investor in Facebook, has become a "conscientious objector" on Facebook. Parker says Facebook explo

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of AT&T (U.S. stock symbol: $T).

Apple Boston

2025-10-05 17:31:00 Sunday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of AT&T (U.S. stock symbol: $T).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More