2019-08-02 17:39:00 Fri ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disagrees with Harvard macro economist Gregory Mankiw with respect to the mysterious and inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. It is difficult to depict a key downward Phillips curve for the post-war period because there is no conclusive trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This empirical result remains true even when we consider alternative measures of U.S. inflation such as the deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core consumer price index (CPI) inflation less food and energy. Furthermore, the empirical result continues to hold in practice when we consider the economic output gap in lieu of the unemployment rate. Cochrane suggests no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the Phillips cloud. In other words, the Phillips curve is too flat to be true.
This analysis poses a conceptual challenge to New Keynesians who seek to attain the Federal Reserve dual mandate of both price stability and maximum sustainable employment. The central bank can constrain money supply growth as a potential source of economic disturbance; yet, the long-term welfare cost of low inflation has no real impact on economic output, employment, and capital investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-08-13 12:39:00 Monday ET

White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow points out that the recent U.S. dollar strength shows a clear sign of investor confidence and optimism. Gree
2018-05-04 06:29:00 Friday ET

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross suggests that 5G remains a U.S. top technology priority in light of the telecom merger proposal between Sprint and T-Mobile a
2023-12-08 08:28:00 Friday ET

Tax policy pluralism for addressing special interests Economists often praise as pluralism the interplay of special interest groups in public policy. In
2018-08-27 09:35:00 Monday ET

President Trump and his Republican senators and supporters praise the recent economic revival of most American counties. The Economist highlights a trifecta
2023-12-03 11:33:00 Sunday ET

Macro innovations and asset alphas show significant mutual causation. April 2023 This brief article draws from the recent research publicati
2020-02-05 10:28:00 Wednesday ET

Our proprietary AYA fintech finbuzz essay shines light on the modern collection of business insights with executive annotations and personal reflections. Th