The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

Fiona Sydney

2019-08-02 17:39:00 Fri ET

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disagrees with Harvard macro economist Gregory Mankiw with respect to the mysterious and inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. It is difficult to depict a key downward Phillips curve for the post-war period because there is no conclusive trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This empirical result remains true even when we consider alternative measures of U.S. inflation such as the deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core consumer price index (CPI) inflation less food and energy. Furthermore, the empirical result continues to hold in practice when we consider the economic output gap in lieu of the unemployment rate. Cochrane suggests no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the Phillips cloud. In other words, the Phillips curve is too flat to be true.

This analysis poses a conceptual challenge to New Keynesians who seek to attain the Federal Reserve dual mandate of both price stability and maximum sustainable employment. The central bank can constrain money supply growth as a potential source of economic disturbance; yet, the long-term welfare cost of low inflation has no real impact on economic output, employment, and capital investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Most business organizations should continue to create new value in order to achieve long-run success and sustainable profitability.

Peter Prince

2020-09-10 08:31:00 Thursday ET

Most business organizations should continue to create new value in order to achieve long-run success and sustainable profitability.

Most business organizations should continue to create new value in order to achieve long-run success and sustainable profitability. Todd Zenger (2016)

+See More

Former White House chief economic advisor Nouriel Roubini discusses the major limits of central-bank-driven fiscal deficits.

Rose Prince

2019-12-25 19:46:00 Wednesday ET

Former White House chief economic advisor Nouriel Roubini discusses the major limits of central-bank-driven fiscal deficits.

Former White House chief economic advisor Nouriel Roubini discusses the major limits of central-bank-driven fiscal deficits. The International Monetary Fund

+See More

Personal finance author William Danko shares 3 top secrets for better wealth creation.

Rose Prince

2018-12-01 11:37:00 Saturday ET

Personal finance author William Danko shares 3 top secrets for better wealth creation.

As the solo author of the books Millionaire Next Door and Richer Than Millionaire, William Danko shares 3 top secrets for *better wealth creation*. True pro

+See More

House Judiciary Committee summons senior executive reps of the tech titans to assess online platforms and their market power.

Peter Prince

2019-08-18 11:33:00 Sunday ET

House Judiciary Committee summons senior executive reps of the tech titans to assess online platforms and their market power.

House Judiciary Committee summons senior executive reps of the tech titans to assess online platforms and their market power. These companies are Facebook,

+See More

U.S. federalism and domestic institutional arrangements

Olivia London

2023-12-10 09:23:00 Sunday ET

U.S. federalism and domestic institutional arrangements

U.S. federalism and domestic institutional arrangements A given country is federal when both of its national and sub-national governments exercise separa

+See More

The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national security concerns and 5G telecom network issues.

James Campbell

2018-03-06 11:35:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national security concerns and 5G telecom network issues.

The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national economic security concerns and 5G telecom network issues. Broadcom makes microchips fo

+See More