2019-08-02 17:39:00 Fri ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disagrees with Harvard macro economist Gregory Mankiw with respect to the mysterious and inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. It is difficult to depict a key downward Phillips curve for the post-war period because there is no conclusive trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This empirical result remains true even when we consider alternative measures of U.S. inflation such as the deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core consumer price index (CPI) inflation less food and energy. Furthermore, the empirical result continues to hold in practice when we consider the economic output gap in lieu of the unemployment rate. Cochrane suggests no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the Phillips cloud. In other words, the Phillips curve is too flat to be true.
This analysis poses a conceptual challenge to New Keynesians who seek to attain the Federal Reserve dual mandate of both price stability and maximum sustainable employment. The central bank can constrain money supply growth as a potential source of economic disturbance; yet, the long-term welfare cost of low inflation has no real impact on economic output, employment, and capital investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-03-28 11:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Federal Reserve System conducts monetary policy decisions, interest rate adjustments, and inter-bank payment operations. Peter Conti-Brown (2017)
2018-10-01 07:33:00 Monday ET

President Trump announces the new trilateral trade agreement among America, Canada, and Mexico: the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaces and revamp
2019-03-01 13:36:00 Friday ET

Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery. This uncertainty arises from Sino-U.S. trade tension, Brexit fallout, monetary policy nor
2019-05-19 19:31:00 Sunday ET

MIT professor and co-author Daron Acemoglu suggests that economic prosperity comes from high-wage job creation. Progressive tax redistribution cannot achiev
2023-05-28 10:24:00 Sunday ET

Thomas Piketty connects the dots between economic growth and inequality worldwide with long-term global empirical evidence. Thomas Piketty (2017) &nbs
2018-05-09 08:31:00 Wednesday ET

CBS and its special committee of independent directors have decided to sue the Redstone controlling shareholders because these directors might have breached