2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-12-05 09:38:00 Wednesday ET
Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report. Fed Chair Jerome Powell applauds both low inflation (2%) and low unemployment (
2017-12-15 07:42:00 Friday ET
Disney acquires 21st Century Fox in a $52 billion landmark deal. This deal has a total value of about $66 billion while Disney assumes $14 billion of Fox
2018-09-01 07:34:00 Saturday ET
As the French economist who studies global economic inequality in his recent book *Capital in the New Century*, Thomas Piketty co-authors with John Bates Cl
2022-05-30 09:32:00 Monday ET
The new semiconductor microchip demand-supply imbalance remains quite severe for the U.S. tech and auto industries. Our current fundamental macro a
2024-04-02 04:45:41 Tuesday ET
Stock Synopsis: High-speed 5G broadband and mobile cloud telecommunication In the U.S. telecom industry for high-speed Internet connections and mobile cl
2019-08-10 21:44:00 Saturday ET
McKinsey Global Institute analyzes 315 U.S. cities and 3,000 counties in terms of how tech automation affects their workers in the next 5 to 10 years. This