2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2025-07-01 13:35:00 Tuesday ET
In recent times, financial deglobalization and asset market fragmentation can cause profound public policy implications for trade, finance, and technology w
2020-02-05 10:28:00 Wednesday ET
Our proprietary AYA fintech finbuzz essay shines light on the modern collection of business insights with executive annotations and personal reflections. Th
2017-02-13 09:35:00 Monday ET
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says President Trump has now awaken the *animal spirits* in the U.S. stock market. The key phrase, animal spirits, is the
2017-01-03 03:26:00 Tuesday ET
President-Elect Donald Trump wants Apple and its tech peers to consider better and greater high-tech job creation in America. Apple has asked its primary
2020-09-11 10:22:00 Friday ET
AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools. In recent times, we have completed our fresh website up
2020-11-22 11:30:00 Sunday ET
A brief biography of Andy Yeh Andy Yeh is responsible for ensuring maximum sustainable member growth within the Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network pla