The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of core CPI rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1%.

Laura Hermes

2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET

The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.

The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment.  Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Oxford macro professor Stephen Nickell and his co-authors delve into the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

Apple Boston

2023-08-07 12:29:00 Monday ET

Oxford macro professor Stephen Nickell and his co-authors delve into the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

Oxford macro professor Stephen Nickell and his co-authors delve into the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the dual mandate of price stability

+See More

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years.

Monica McNeil

2019-10-25 07:49:00 Friday ET

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years.

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years. The current U.S. Treasury fiscal budget deficit rises from $779 billion to $1.0

+See More

Former LSE Director Howard Davies shares his ingenious insights into the new Basel 4 accord.

Chanel Holden

2018-01-01 06:30:00 Monday ET

Former LSE Director Howard Davies shares his ingenious insights into the new Basel 4 accord.

As former chairman of the British Financial Services Authority and former director of the London School of Economics, Howard Davies shares his ingenious ins

+See More

The Chinese Xi administration may choose to leverage its state dominance of rare-earth elements to better balance the current Sino-U.S. trade war.

Dan Rochefort

2019-06-13 10:26:00 Thursday ET

The Chinese Xi administration may choose to leverage its state dominance of rare-earth elements to better balance the current Sino-U.S. trade war.

The Chinese Xi administration may choose to leverage its state dominance of rare-earth elements to better balance the current Sino-U.S. trade war. In recent

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Salesforce (U.S. stock symbol: $CRM).

Amy Hamilton

2025-10-09 11:30:00 Thursday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of Salesforce (U.S. stock symbol: $CRM).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

Personal finance author William Danko shares 3 top secrets for better wealth creation.

Rose Prince

2018-12-01 11:37:00 Saturday ET

Personal finance author William Danko shares 3 top secrets for better wealth creation.

As the solo author of the books Millionaire Next Door and Richer Than Millionaire, William Danko shares 3 top secrets for *better wealth creation*. True pro

+See More