2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-04-25 09:35:00 Thursday ET
Bridgewater hedge fund founder Ray Dalio suggests that the current state of U.S. capitalism poses an existential threat for many Americans. Dalio deems the
2017-12-17 11:41:00 Sunday ET
Warren Buffett points out that it is important to invest in oneself. Learning about oneself empowers him or her to lead a meaningful life. This valuable inv
2023-10-21 11:32:00 Saturday ET
Walter Scheidel indicates that persistent European fragmentation after the collapse of the Roman Empire leads to modern economic growth and development.
2019-02-11 09:37:00 Monday ET
Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and offshore cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation. Share repurchases
2019-04-01 08:28:00 Monday ET
OraSure and its subsidiary DNA Genotek specialize in the lean production of home DNA spit tubes. OraSure extracts core genetic information from microbiome s
2019-07-09 15:14:00 Tuesday ET
The Chinese new star board launches for tech firms to list at home. The Nasdaq-equivalent new star board serves as a key avenue for Chinese tech companies t