2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-02-21 12:37:00 Thursday ET
Apple shakes up senior leadership to initiate a new transition from iPhone revenue reliance to media and software services. These changes include the key pr
2018-08-15 14:40:00 Wednesday ET
Senator Elizabeth Warren advocates the alternative view that most U.S. trade deals serve corporate interests over workers, customers, and suppliers etc. She
2018-04-13 14:42:00 Friday ET
Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea with no regime change as the North Korean dicta
2019-06-07 04:02:05 Friday ET
The world seeks to reduce medicine prices and other health care costs to better regulate big pharma. Nowadays the Trump administration requires pharmaceutic
2019-03-21 12:33:00 Thursday ET
Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA). These tech titans have become
2019-01-08 17:46:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump forces the Federal Reserve to normalize the current interest rate hike to signal its own monetary policy independence from the White House.