2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-04-11 09:37:00 Wednesday ET
North Korean leader and president Kim Jong-Un seeks peaceful resolution and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. When *peace* comes to shove, Asia
2019-06-07 04:02:05 Friday ET
The world seeks to reduce medicine prices and other health care costs to better regulate big pharma. Nowadays the Trump administration requires pharmaceutic
2023-02-28 10:27:00 Tuesday ET
Basic income reforms can contribute to better health care, public infrastructure, education, technology, and residential protection. Philippe Van Parijs
2019-06-19 09:27:00 Wednesday ET
San Francisco Fed CEO Mary Daly suggests that trade escalation is not the only risk in the global economy. Due to the current Sino-U.S. trade tension, the g
2020-04-24 11:33:00 Friday ET
Disruptive innovations tend to contribute to business success in new blue-ocean markets after iterative continuous improvements. Clayton Christensen and
2026-04-30 08:28:00 Thursday ET
In the current global market for better biotech advances, medical innovations, and healthcare services, the new integration of artificial intelligence (AI)