2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2020-05-28 15:37:00 Thursday ET
Platform enterprises leverage network effects, scale economies, and information cascades to boost exponential business growth. Laure Reillier and Benoit
2018-07-13 09:41:00 Friday ET
Yale economist Stephen Roach warns that America has much to lose from the current trade war with China for a few reasons. First, America is highly dependent
2019-03-27 11:28:00 Wednesday ET
OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020. The global economy suffers from economic protraction
2018-08-17 11:45:00 Friday ET
In accordance with the extant corporate disclosure rules and requirements, all U.S. public corporations have to report their balance sheets, income statemen
2018-08-27 09:35:00 Monday ET
President Trump and his Republican senators and supporters praise the recent economic revival of most American counties. The Economist highlights a trifecta
2018-01-17 05:30:00 Wednesday ET
European Union antitrust regulators impose a fine on Qualcomm for advancing its key exclusive microchip deal with Apple to block out rivals such as Intel an