2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-08-21 11:40:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump criticizes his new Fed Chair Jerome Powell for accelerating the current interest rate hike with greenback strength. This criticism overshado
2023-11-30 08:29:00 Thursday ET

In addition to the OECD bank-credit-card model and Chinese online payment platforms, the open-payments gateways of UPI in India and Pix in Brazil have adapt
2020-02-02 11:32:00 Sunday ET

Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the current global economic outlook. As of Winter-Spring 2020, the analytical report delves into t
2019-08-16 17:37:00 Friday ET

Amazon faces E.U. antitrust scrutiny over the current e-commerce use of merchant data. The European Commission probes into whether Amazon uses key third-par
2019-06-01 10:33:00 Saturday ET

Top tech firms such as Google, Intel, and Qualcomm suspend Android services to HuaWei as the Trump administration blacklists the Chinese company. HuaWei can
2018-11-19 09:38:00 Monday ET

The Trump administration mulls over antitrust actions against Amazon, Facebook, and Google. President Trump indicates that the $5 billion fine against Googl