2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-08-19 14:43:00 Saturday ET
In a recent tweet, President Donald Trump criticizes Amazon over taxes and jobs. Without providing specific evidence, Trump accuses of the e-commerce retail
2018-02-03 07:42:00 Saturday ET
Quant Quake 2.0 shakes investor confidence with rampant stock market fears and doubts during the recent Fed Chair transition from Janet Yellen to Jerome Pow
2017-11-05 09:45:00 Sunday ET
President Trump criticizes the potential media merger between AT&T and Time Warner, the latter of which owns the anti-Trump media network CNN. President
2020-11-24 09:30:00 Tuesday ET
Many analytic business competitors can apply smart data science to support their distinctive capabilities and strategic advantages. Thomas Davenport and
2019-07-17 12:37:00 Wednesday ET
Gold prices surge above $1400 per ounce amid global trade tension and economic policy uncertainty. Both European Central Bank and Bank of Japan may consider
2018-11-21 11:36:00 Wednesday ET
Apple upstream suppliers from Foxconn and Pegatron to Radiance and Lumentum experience sharp share price declines during the Christmas 2017 holiday quarter.