The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of core CPI rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1%.

Laura Hermes

2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET

The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.

The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment.  Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Business titans often step away from their urgent work, slow down, and invest in self-enrichment.

Laura Hermes

2017-12-23 10:40:00 Saturday ET

Business titans often step away from their urgent work, slow down, and invest in self-enrichment.

Despite having way more responsibility than anyone else, top business titans such as Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Oprah Winfrey often step away from

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-02-28 20:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube February 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of February 2019: (1) our proprieta

+See More

America seeks to advance the global energy dominance agenda by toppling Saudi Arabia as the top oil exporter by 2024.

Olivia London

2019-03-25 17:30:00 Monday ET

America seeks to advance the global energy dominance agenda by toppling Saudi Arabia as the top oil exporter by 2024.

America seeks to advance the global energy dominance agenda by toppling Saudi Arabia as the top oil exporter by 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA)

+See More

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Olivia London

2019-01-05 11:39:00 Saturday ET

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Reuters polls show that most Americans blame President Trump for the recent U.S. government shutdown. President Trump remains adamant about having to shut d

+See More

Capital gravitates toward key profitable mutual funds until the marginal asset return equilibrates near the core stock market benchmark.

Peter Prince

2019-07-27 17:37:00 Saturday ET

Capital gravitates toward key profitable mutual funds until the marginal asset return equilibrates near the core stock market benchmark.

Capital gravitates toward key profitable mutual funds until the marginal asset return equilibrates near the core stock market benchmark. As Stanford finance

+See More

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces her landslide defeat in the parliamentary vote 432-to-202 against her Brexit deal.

Charlene Vos

2019-01-27 12:39:00 Sunday ET

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces her landslide defeat in the parliamentary vote 432-to-202 against her Brexit deal.

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces her landslide defeat in the parliamentary vote 432-to-202 against her Brexit deal. British Parliament rejects the M

+See More