2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2020-06-03 09:31:00 Wednesday ET
Lean enterprises often try to incubate disruptive innovations with iterative continuous improvements and inventions over time. Trevor Owens and Obie Fern
2017-10-21 08:45:00 Saturday ET
Netflix stares at higher content costs as Disney and Fox hold merger talks. Disney has held talks to acquire most of 21st Century Fox's business equity.
2020-09-15 08:38:00 Tuesday ET
Macro eigenvalue volatility helps predict some recent episodes of high economic policy uncertainty, recession risk, or rare events such as the recent rampan
2018-01-03 08:38:00 Wednesday ET
President Trump targets Amazon in his call for U.S. Postal Service to charge high delivery prices on the ecommerce giant. Trump picks another fight with an
2020-07-05 11:31:00 Sunday ET
Business entrepreneurs dare to dream, remain true and authentic to themselves, and try to make a great social impact in the world. Alex Malley (2014)
2019-03-27 11:28:00 Wednesday ET
OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020. The global economy suffers from economic protraction