2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2025-04-30 08:27:00 Wednesday ET
The multiple layers of the world cloud Internet help expand what can be made digitally viable from electric vehicles (EV) and virtual reality (VR) headsets
2019-07-15 16:37:00 Monday ET
President of US-China Business Council Craig Allen states that a trade deal should be within reach if Trump and Xi show courage at G20. A landmark trade agr
2019-01-15 13:35:00 Tuesday ET
Americans continue to keep their financial New Year resolutions. First, Americans should save more money. Everyone needs a budget to ensure that key paychec
2018-12-13 08:30:00 Thursday ET
The recent arrest of HuaWei senior executive manager may upend the trade truce between America and China. At the request of several U.S. authorities, Canadi
2022-09-15 11:38:00 Thursday ET
Capital structure choices for private firms The Kauffman Firm Survey (KFS) database provides comprehensive panel data on 5,000+ American private firms fr
2018-04-07 09:36:00 Saturday ET
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testifies in Congress to rise up to the challenge of public outrage in response to the Cambridge Analytica data debacle and use