2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-10-15 07:38:00 Sunday ET
Ivanka Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both press the case for GOP tax legislation as economic relief for the middle-class without substantial t
2023-06-19 10:31:00 Monday ET
A brief biography of Andy Yeh Andy Yeh is responsible for ensuring maximum sustainable member growth within the Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network plat
2018-09-15 11:35:00 Saturday ET
Apple releases its September 2018 trifecta of smart phones or iPhone X sequels: iPhone Xs, iPhone Xs Max, and iPhone XR. Both iPhone Xs and iPhone Xs Max ha
2019-06-25 10:34:00 Tuesday ET
Investing in stocks is the best way for people to become self-made millionaires. A recent Gallup poll indicates that only 37% of young Americans below the a
2017-12-11 08:42:00 Monday ET
Fed Chair Janet Yellen says the current high stock market valuation does not mean overvaluation. A stock market quick fire sale would pose minimal risk to t
2019-02-11 09:37:00 Monday ET
Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and offshore cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation. Share repurchases