2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-04-17 11:34:00 Wednesday ET

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos admits the fact that antitrust scrutiny remains a primary imminent threat to his e-commerce business empire. In his annual letter to A
2019-06-09 11:29:00 Sunday ET

St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard indicates that his ideal baseline scenario remains a mutually beneficial China-U.S. trade deal. Bullard ind
2019-12-16 11:37:00 Monday ET

America and China cannot decouple decades of long-term collaboration in trade, finance, and technology. In recent times, some economists claim that China ma
2017-07-19 11:35:00 Wednesday ET

This brief article encapsulates the timeless wisdom of Warren Buffett's famous quotes on fundamental stock investment, fear and greed, patience, risk co
2018-06-25 12:43:00 Monday ET

Apple and Samsung are the archrivals for the title of the world's top smart phone maker. The recent patent lawsuit settlement between Apple and Samsung
2019-04-30 19:46:00 Tuesday ET

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube April 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of April 2019: (1) Our proprietary