2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-07-03 11:42:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump's current trade policies appear like the Reagan administration's protectionist trade policies back in the 1980s. In comparison to th
2019-08-04 08:26:00 Sunday ET
U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit in Japan.
2023-07-14 10:32:00 Friday ET
Ray Fair applies his macroeconometric model to study the central features of the U.S. macroeconomy such as price stability and full employment in the dual m
2016-11-08 00:00:00 Tuesday ET
Donald Trump defies the odds to become the new U.S. president. He wants to make America great again. He seeks to repeal Obamacare. He has zero tole
2018-06-08 13:35:00 Friday ET
The Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects subsequent rate increases in September and December 2018 to dampen inf
2024-10-27 07:56:01 Sunday ET
Stock Synopsis: China Internet tech titans continue to grow amid greater competition. We launch our unique coverage of top 25 China Internet stocks. In t