2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2024-05-27 03:23:34 Monday ET
Stock Synopsis: Life insurers emphasize profit margins over sales growth rates. We review and analyze the recent market share data in the U.S. life insur
2024-04-30 09:30:00 Tuesday ET
With clean and green energy resources and electric vehicles, the global auto industry now navigates at a newer and faster pace. Both BYD and Tesla have
2018-12-01 11:37:00 Saturday ET
As the solo author of the books Millionaire Next Door and Richer Than Millionaire, William Danko shares 3 top secrets for *better wealth creation*. True pro
2018-06-29 11:41:00 Friday ET
Amazon acquires an Internet pharmacy PillPack in order to better compete with Walgreens Boots Alliance, CVS Health, Rite Aid, and many other drug distributo
2017-04-19 17:37:00 Wednesday ET
Apple is now the world's biggest dividend payer with its $13 billion dividend payout and surpasses ExxonMobil's dividend payout record. Despite the
2017-09-19 05:34:00 Tuesday ET
Facebook, Twitter, and Google executives head before the Senate Judiciary Committee to explain the scope of Russian interference in the U.S. presidential el