2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-06-03 07:35:00 Sunday ET
Several recent events explain why Trump may undermine multilateral world order. First, Trump withdraws the U.S. from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership
2018-02-11 07:30:00 Sunday ET
President Trump unveils his ambitious $1.5 trillion public infrastructure plan. Trump proposes offering $100 billion in federal incentives to encourage stat
2017-06-15 07:32:00 Thursday ET
President Donald Trump has discussed with the CEOs of large multinational corporations such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. This discussion include
2019-07-21 09:37:00 Sunday ET
Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce. Libra will be available to all the 2 billion active users on Fa
2019-04-19 12:35:00 Friday ET
Federal Reserve proposes to revamp post-crisis rules for U.S. banks. The current proposals would prescribe materially less strict requirements for community
2017-01-17 12:42:00 Tuesday ET
Former Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers critiques that the Trump administration's generous tax holiday for American multinational