2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-09-28 08:26:00 Thursday ET
Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show a constant economic tussle between society and the state in the hot pursuit of liberty. Daron Acemoglu and James R
2020-10-27 07:43:00 Tuesday ET
Most agile lean enterprises often choose to cut costs strategically to make their respective business models fit for growth. Vinay Couto, John Plansky,
2023-12-07 07:22:00 Thursday ET
Economic policy incrementalism for better fiscal and monetary policy coordination Traditionally, fiscal and monetary policies were made incrementally. In
2019-01-17 10:41:00 Thursday ET
Sino-American trade talks make positive progress over 3 consecutive days as S&P 500 and global stock market indices post 3-day win streaks. Asian and Eu
2025-05-21 04:27:10 Wednesday ET
Carol Dweck describes, discusses, and delves into the scientific reasons why the growth mindset often helps motivate individuals, teams, and managers to acc
2024-10-27 07:56:01 Sunday ET
Stock Synopsis: China Internet tech titans continue to grow amid greater competition. We launch our unique coverage of top 25 China Internet stocks. In t