2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-04-13 10:42:00 Thursday ET
President Donald Trump unveils the dramatic *tax overhaul proposal*. Through this tax plan, Trump replaces the current 7 income tax brackets with 3 leane
2018-03-25 08:39:00 Sunday ET
President Trump imposes punitive tariffs on $60 billion Chinese imports in a brand-new trade war as China hits back with retaliatory tariffs on $3 billion U
2020-04-03 09:28:00 Friday ET
The Intel trinity of Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove establishes the primary semiconductor tech titan in Silicon Valley. Michael Malone (2014)
2018-12-20 13:40:00 Thursday ET
T-Mobile and Sprint indicate that the U.S. is likely to approve their merger plan as they take the offer from foreign owners to stop using HuaWei telecom te
2019-02-15 11:33:00 Friday ET
President Trump is open to extending the March 2019 deadline for raising tariffs on Chinese imports if both sides are close to mutual agreement. These bilat
2023-11-21 11:32:00 Tuesday ET
Nobel Laureate Paul Milgrom explains the U.S. incentive auction of wireless spectrum allocation from TV broadcasters to telecoms. Paul Milgrom (2019)