2018-02-07 06:38:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
The new Fed chairman Jerome Powell faces a new challenge in the form of both core CPI and CPI inflation rate hikes toward 1.8%-2.1% year-over-year with strong wage growth. The recent greenback depreciation aggravates inflationary concerns as non-farm payroll unemployment declines toward 4% or even 3.9%. This dollar depreciation raises U.S. import prices and therefore can drive greater inflationary momentum. More substantive evidence can shine new light on whether the current Trump stock market rally indicates irrational exuberance for most stock and bond investors.
The Federal Reserve can raise the interest rate to better balance the dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. Powell needs to weigh the pros and cons of another interest rate hike that constrains money supply growth near full employment. Price stability helps reduce economic policy uncertainty that may inadvertently dampen both consumption and capital investment decisions. On the other hand, Powell should pick the low-hanging fruits of full employment before America experiences the next gradual deterioration in labor market conditions. During the Trump administration, it takes 3%-3.5% real GDP economic growth for macro momentum to trickle down to the typical U.S. household, firm, and financial intermediary. Supply-side Trumpism needs to prove its feasible case in due course.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-11-13 11:34:00 Wednesday ET
The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and economic optimism. British prime minister Boris Johnson wins the parliamentary vote on his new
2019-05-09 10:28:00 Thursday ET
President Trump ramps up 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports soon after China backtracks on the Sino-American trade agreement. U.S. trade envoy Robe
2017-08-07 09:39:00 Monday ET
Global financial markets suffer as President Trump promises *fire and fury* in response to the recent report that North Korea has successfully miniaturized
2019-07-31 11:34:00 Wednesday ET
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube July 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of July 2019: (1) All 18 systemical
2019-01-11 10:33:00 Friday ET
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to track major business risks in light of volatile stock markets, elections, and geopolitics. EIU monitors g
2018-02-01 07:38:00 Thursday ET
U.S. senators urge the Trump administration with a bipartisan proposal to prevent the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from bailing out several countries t