The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to track major business risks in light of volatile stock markets.

Fiona Sydney

2019-01-11 10:33:00 Fri ET

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) continues to track major business risks in light of volatile stock markets, elections, and geopolitics. EIU monitors geopolitical uncertainty and market-and-credit risks in 180 countries. At the global level, EIU outlines several persistent business risks. These risks include the Sino-U.S. trade war, oil supply shrinkage, and financial contagion from Turkey and Argentina. As the Sino-U.S. trade talks take place at the deputy secretary level, key stock market indices from Dow Jones to NASDAQ and S&P500 demonstrate hefty gains of 3%-5% in early-January 2019. Stock market investors hope these deputy dialogues to reach some form of compromise for better Sino-U.S. trade war resolution. Also, oil prices are likely to surge when OPEC countries cut their current oil supply. This oil price hike can cause inflationary concerns in most OECD countries.

Several emerging-economies may suffer near-term stock market gyrations due to oil supply contraction and financial contagion from Turkey and Argentina. The EIU report sheds fresh light on the biggest business risks in early-January 2019: Trump economic sanctions on Iran, social unrest in in Nicaragua, and corruption and tax policy uncertainty in Lithuania. In comparison, Nepal and Egypt receive lower risk scores due to political stability, macroeconomic momentum, and gradual currency devaluation.

 


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