2018-02-03 07:42:00 Sat ET
stock market gold oil stock return s&p 500 asset market stabilization asset price fluctuations stocks bonds currencies commodities funds term spreads credit spreads fair value spreads asset investments
Quant Quake 2.0 shakes investor confidence with rampant stock market fears and doubts during the recent Fed Chair transition from Janet Yellen to Jerome Powell. This healthy fundamental recalibration indicates the recent fact that 96% of all S&P 500 stocks experience 20% drastic declines from their own 52-week high share prices. Key investor concerns relate to U.S. inflationary momentum and bond yield appreciation. As professional forecasters mull over the inexorable and mysterious trade-off between inflation and unemployment, the new Federal Reserve chairman tends to retain a hawkish monetary policy stance. These forecasters predict that the Federal Reserve may hike the interest rate at least 3 to 4 times this year. This neutral interest rate curtails U.S. inflation near full employment well within Powell's congressional dual mandate.
AQR money manager and founder Cliff Asness points out that the U.S. financial system remains robust with less leverage and fair valuation despite the recent stock market plunge in early-February 2018. Asness believes in his conservative implementation of quantitative fundamental strategies across the vast majority of his factor portfolios of stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.
His favorite value and momentum factor strategies resonate with Warren Buffett's long-term asset investment philosophy: *Price is what we pay, and value is what we get. We should be fearful when others are greedy, and we should be greedy when others are fearful.* In his recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett emphasizes that stock market corrections are often both normal and unpredictable. From a long-run perspective, the U.S. stock market sometimes goes *on sale*. Thus, Buffett suggests that it is important for investors to replenish their cash positions in order to take advantage of sporadic stock market corrections. When these corrections take place, the stock price often fall below the long-term equilibrium intrinsic value. Beyond conventional wisdom, greed is *good* and pays well in the tripartite form of capital gains, cash dividends, and share repurchases.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-02-07 08:26:00 Tuesday ET

Michel De Vroey delves into the global history of macroeconomic theories from real business cycles to persistent monetary effects. Michel De Vroey (2016)
2018-07-13 09:41:00 Friday ET

Yale economist Stephen Roach warns that America has much to lose from the current trade war with China for a few reasons. First, America is highly dependent
2018-05-13 08:33:00 Sunday ET

Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance in order to stop holding the financial market's han
2019-04-21 10:07:54 Sunday ET

Central bank independence remains important for core inflation containment in the current age of political populism. In accordance with the dual mandate of
2018-09-17 12:40:00 Monday ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-
2019-03-05 10:40:00 Tuesday ET

We may need to reconsider the new rules of personal finance. First, renting a home can be a smart money move, whereas, buying a home cannot always be a good