Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.

Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Can the Chinese renminbi become the next dual global reserve currency in addition to the American dollar?

Daphne Basel

2020-08-01 07:28:00 Saturday ET

Can the Chinese renminbi become the next dual global reserve currency in addition to the American dollar?

Technological advances, geopolitical risks, and pandemic outbreaks cannot shake investor confidence in the American dollar as the global reserve currency.

+See More

The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Friday ET

The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past deca

+See More

Uniform field theory of corporate finance

Peter Prince

2022-11-25 09:29:00 Friday ET

Uniform field theory of corporate finance

Uniform field theory of corporate finance While the agency and precautionary-motive stories are complementary, these stories can be nested as special cas

+See More

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years.

Monica McNeil

2019-10-25 07:49:00 Friday ET

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years.

U.S. fiscal budget deficit hits $1 trillion or the highest level in 7 years. The current U.S. Treasury fiscal budget deficit rises from $779 billion to $1.0

+See More

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig raise broad critical issues about bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization.

Charlene Vos

2023-06-07 10:27:00 Wednesday ET

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig raise broad critical issues about bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization.

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig raise broad critical issues about bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization. Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig (

+See More

President Trump delivers his second state-of-the-union address to U.S. Congress.

Olivia London

2019-02-06 10:36:49 Wednesday ET

President Trump delivers his second state-of-the-union address to U.S. Congress.

President Trump delivers his second state-of-the-union address to U.S. Congress. Several key themes emerge from this presidential address. First, President

+See More