Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak.
Apple Boston

2018-09-17 12:40:00 Mon ET

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller's long-term stock market indicator points to a recent peak. His cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE) accounts for long-term corporate profitability and market valuation. CAPE has correctly helped anticipate the Black Monday 1987 stock market crash, the dotcom bubble collapse in the dawn of the new millennium, and the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

As of September 2018, this metric gauges the U.S. stock market value at 33 times the average corporate income over the past decade. CAPE serves as a useful key economic indicator of U.S. stock market overvaluation at this stage of the business cycle. In fact, the current U.S. stock market capitalization well exceeds American real GDP economic output. It is often difficult to beat the market, whereas, it can be quite easy and imperative to save on capital income taxes and transaction costs.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, however, disagrees with this simplistic CAPE analysis of U.S. stock market valuation. Even though U.S. stocks appear to be expensive, they remain good bargains in comparison with bonds in light of the small default risk premium. Relative valuation of stocks-versus-bonds continues to be favorable during the current Trump stock market rally in modern U.S. economic history.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, and Russia voice their concern at the WTO.
James Campbell

2018-07-05 13:40:00 Thursday ET

U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, and Russia voice their concern at the WTO.

U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, and Russia voice their concern at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in ligh

+See More
We share Warren Buffett's famous quotes on fundamental stock investment.
Charlene Vos

2017-07-19 11:35:00 Wednesday ET

We share Warren Buffett's famous quotes on fundamental stock investment.

This brief article encapsulates the timeless wisdom of Warren Buffett's famous quotes on fundamental stock investment, fear and greed, patience, risk co

+See More
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan discerns asset bubbles in the American stock and bond markets in early-2018.
Jonah Whanau

2018-01-21 07:25:00 Sunday ET

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan discerns asset bubbles in the American stock and bond markets in early-2018.

As he refrains from using the memorable phrase *irrational exuberance* to assess bullish investor sentiments, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan discerns as

+See More
The social media factor serves as a new measure of investor sentiment in addition to the fundamental factors.
Rose Prince

2017-05-07 06:39:00 Sunday ET

The social media factor serves as a new measure of investor sentiment in addition to the fundamental factors.

While the original five-factor asset pricing model arises from a quasi-lifetime of top empirical research by Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama and his long-time co

+See More
Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).
Becky Berkman

2019-03-21 12:33:00 Thursday ET

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA). These tech titans have become

+See More
OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020.
Rose Prince

2019-03-27 11:28:00 Wednesday ET

OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020.

OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the current fiscal year 2019-2020. The global economy suffers from economic protraction

+See More