2019-02-28 12:39:00 Thu ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear. After raising the interest rate 7 times since 2017 to 2.25%-2.5%, the Federal Reserve now keeps the economically neutral federal funds rate. This neutral interest rate helps restore healthy economic growth on the steady-state trajectory with low inflation when the economy operates near full employment. As of January 2019, the U.S. CPI inflation rate declines from 1.9% to 1.6% below the 2% target level as the U.S. unemployment rate continues to hover around the 3.7% historically low level.
As New York Fed CEO and Fed Vice Chair, Williams considers the current neutral interest rate to be in a good place. This monetary policy stance accords with the congressional dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. After the most recent FOMC rate-hike holiday, Federal Reserve governors and presidents indicate their clear intention that it may be about time to end their 3-year drive to tighten monetary policy due to a cloudy U.S. economic outlook. This cloudy outlook arises from key complications such as the Sino-U.S. trade and government budget negotiations.
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