JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Corporate investment management

Charlene Vos

2022-04-15 10:32:00 Friday ET

Corporate investment management

Corporate investment management  This review of corporate investment literature focuses on some recent empirical studies of M&A, capital investm

+See More

Foxconn invests $10 billion in a new manufacturing plant for LCD display panels in Wisconsin.

Chanel Holden

2017-07-13 08:35:00 Thursday ET

Foxconn invests $10 billion in a new manufacturing plant for LCD display panels in Wisconsin.

President Donald Trump has announced that a major Apple iPhone upstream supplier, Foxconn Technology Group (aka Hon Hai Precision Group), will invest $10 bi

+See More

Dr Kai-Fu Lee praises China as the next epicenter of artificial intelligence and smart data analysis.

Peter Prince

2017-12-01 06:30:00 Friday ET

Dr Kai-Fu Lee praises China as the next epicenter of artificial intelligence and smart data analysis.

Dr Kai-Fu Lee praises China as the next epicenter of artificial intelligence, smart data analysis, and robotic automation. With prior IT careers at Apple, M

+See More

Broadcom announces its strategic plans to move its legal headquarters from Singapore to America.

Daphne Basel

2017-11-03 06:41:00 Friday ET

Broadcom announces its strategic plans to move its legal headquarters from Singapore to America.

Broadcom, a one-time division of Hewlett-Packard and now a semiconductor maker whose chips help power iPhone X, has announced its strategic plans to move it

+See More

The Sino-U.S. trade war may be the Thucydides trap or a clash of Caucasian and non-Caucasian civilizations.

Chanel Holden

2019-06-03 11:31:00 Monday ET

The Sino-U.S. trade war may be the Thucydides trap or a clash of Caucasian and non-Caucasian civilizations.

The Sino-U.S. trade war may be the Thucydides trap or a clash of Caucasian and non-Caucasian civilizations. The proverbial Thucydides trap refers to the his

+See More

President Trump tweets his key decision to oust State Secretary Rex Tillerson due to intense disagreement over diplomatic affairs.

Fiona Sydney

2018-03-07 07:34:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump tweets his key decision to oust State Secretary Rex Tillerson due to intense disagreement over diplomatic affairs.

President Trump tweets his key decision to oust State Secretary Rex Tillerson after several months of intense disagreement over diplomatic affairs. Trump so

+See More