JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

President of US-China Business Council Craig Allen states that a trade deal should be within reach if Trump and Xi show courage at G20.

Daisy Harvey

2019-07-15 16:37:00 Monday ET

President of US-China Business Council Craig Allen states that a trade deal should be within reach if Trump and Xi show courage at G20.

President of US-China Business Council Craig Allen states that a trade deal should be within reach if Trump and Xi show courage at G20. A landmark trade agr

+See More

Tech companies seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries.

Amy Hamilton

2019-03-03 10:39:00 Sunday ET

Tech companies seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries.

Tech companies seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries. Retail traders can list items for sale on eBay and then acquire these items economically on

+See More

The world seeks to reduce medicine prices and other health care costs to better regulate big pharma.

Daisy Harvey

2019-06-07 04:02:05 Friday ET

The world seeks to reduce medicine prices and other health care costs to better regulate big pharma.

The world seeks to reduce medicine prices and other health care costs to better regulate big pharma. Nowadays the Trump administration requires pharmaceutic

+See More

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show that good inclusive institutions contribute to better long-run economic growth.

Monica McNeil

2023-06-14 10:26:00 Wednesday ET

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show that good inclusive institutions contribute to better long-run economic growth.

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show that good inclusive institutions contribute to better long-run economic growth. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson

+See More

President Trump signs an executive order to freeze federal employee pay in early-2019.

Rose Prince

2019-01-06 08:39:00 Sunday ET

President Trump signs an executive order to freeze federal employee pay in early-2019.

President Trump signs an executive order to freeze federal employee pay in early-2019. Federal employees face furlough or work without pay due to the govern

+See More

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis.

John Fourier

2018-01-19 11:32:00 Friday ET

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis.

Most major economies grow with great synchronicity several years after the global financial crisis. These economies experience high stock market valuation,

+See More