2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.
Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.
However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.
In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.
Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2020-08-12 07:25:00 Wednesday ET
Most sustainably successful business leaders make a mark in the world, create a positive impact, and challenge the status quo. Jerry Porras, Stewart Emer
2019-09-05 09:26:00 Thursday ET
Yale macro economist Stephen Roach draws 3 major conclusions with respect to the Chinese long-run view of the current tech trade conflict with America. Firs
2018-08-03 07:33:00 Friday ET
President Trump escalates the current Sino-American trade war by imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports. These tariffs encompass chemical prod
2020-09-10 08:31:00 Thursday ET
Most business organizations should continue to create new value in order to achieve long-run success and sustainable profitability. Todd Zenger (2016)
2023-09-07 11:30:00 Thursday ET
Michael Woodford provides the theoretical foundations of monetary policy rules in ever more efficient financial markets. Michael Woodford (2003)
2018-09-21 09:41:00 Friday ET
Former World Bank and IMF chief advisor Anne Krueger explains why the Trump administration's current tariff tactics undermine the multilateral global tr