JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Agile business firms beat the odds by building faster institutional reflexes to anticipate plausible economic scenarios.

Fiona Sydney

2020-09-03 10:26:00 Thursday ET

Agile business firms beat the odds by building faster institutional reflexes to anticipate plausible economic scenarios.

Agile business firms beat the odds by building faster institutional reflexes to anticipate plausible economic scenarios. Christopher Worley, Thomas Willi

+See More

The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national security concerns and 5G telecom network issues.

James Campbell

2018-03-06 11:35:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national security concerns and 5G telecom network issues.

The Trump team blocks Broadcom's bid for Qualcomm due to national economic security concerns and 5G telecom network issues. Broadcom makes microchips fo

+See More

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report.

Peter Prince

2018-12-05 09:38:00 Wednesday ET

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report.

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report. Fed Chair Jerome Powell applauds both low inflation (2%) and low unemployment (

+See More

Amazon follows Apple to become the second U.S. public corporation to hit $1 trillion stock market valuation.

Dan Rochefort

2018-09-03 09:31:00 Monday ET

Amazon follows Apple to become the second U.S. public corporation to hit $1 trillion stock market valuation.

Amazon follows Apple to become the second American public corporation to hit $1 trillion stock market valuation. Amazon's founder and chairman Jeff Bezo

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market issues, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Daphne Basel

2019-05-30 16:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market issues, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube May 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of May 2019: (1) Our proprietary alp

+See More

Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends.

John Fourier

2018-10-30 10:41:00 Tuesday ET

Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends.

Personal finance author Ramit Sethi suggests that it is important to invest in long-term gains instead of paying attention to daily dips and trends. It

+See More