2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.
Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.
However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.
In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.
Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-11-07 09:38:00 Tuesday ET
HPE CEO Meg Whitman has run both eBay and Hewlett Packard within Fortune 500 and now has decided to step down after her 6-year stint at the technology giant
2020-04-24 11:33:00 Friday ET
Disruptive innovations tend to contribute to business success in new blue-ocean markets after iterative continuous improvements. Clayton Christensen and
2017-06-09 06:37:00 Friday ET
To complement President Trump's pro-business economic policies such as low taxation, new infrastructure, greater job creation, and technological in
2019-06-17 11:25:00 Monday ET
To secure better economic arrangements with European Union, Jeremy Corbyn encourages Labour legislators to back a second referendum on Brexit. In recent tim
2023-09-07 11:30:00 Thursday ET
Michael Woodford provides the theoretical foundations of monetary policy rules in ever more efficient financial markets. Michael Woodford (2003)
2020-03-05 08:28:00 Thursday ET
The Stanford computer science overlords Larry Page and Sergey Brin design and develop Google as an Internet search company. Janet Lowe (2009) Google s