JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics and economic trends for better stock investment decisions.

Daphne Basel

2019-09-30 07:33:00 Monday ET

AYA finbuzz podcast offers fresh insights into the latest stock market topics and economic trends for better stock investment decisions.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube September 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of September 2019: (1) Former

+See More

Capital market liberalization and globalization connect global financial markets to allow an ocean of money to flow through them.

Becky Berkman

2018-06-17 10:35:00 Sunday ET

Capital market liberalization and globalization connect global financial markets to allow an ocean of money to flow through them.

In the past decades, capital market liberalization and globalization have combined to connect global financial markets to allow an ocean of money to flow th

+See More

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024

Dan Rochefort

2024-03-19 03:35:58 Tuesday ET

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024 We delve into the 5 major economic themes of the U.S. presidential electi

+See More

CNBC reports the Top 5 features of Apple's iPhone X.

Peter Prince

2017-09-13 10:35:00 Wednesday ET

CNBC reports the Top 5 features of Apple's iPhone X.

CNBC reports the Top 5 features of Apple's iPhone X. This new product release can be the rising tide that lifts all boats in Apple's upstream value

+See More

After its iPhone X launch, Apple reports its highest quarterly revenue over $80 billion in the tech titan's 41-year history.

Amy Hamilton

2018-01-25 08:32:00 Thursday ET

After its iPhone X launch, Apple reports its highest quarterly revenue over $80 billion in the tech titan's 41-year history.

After its flagship iPhone X launch, Apple reports its highest quarterly sales revenue over $80 billion in the tech titan's 41-year history. Apple expect

+See More

The finance ministers of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan team up against U.S. President Trump at the G7 forum.

Jonah Whanau

2018-06-02 09:35:00 Saturday ET

The finance ministers of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan team up against U.S. President Trump at the G7 forum.

The finance ministers of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan team up against U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchi

+See More