JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle

Fiona Sydney

2023-12-04 12:30:00 Monday ET

Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle

Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle   Abstract We assess the quantitative effects of the recent proposal

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Amy Hamilton

2019-04-30 19:46:00 Tuesday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube April 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of April 2019: (1) Our proprietary

+See More

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show that good inclusive institutions contribute to better long-run economic growth.

Monica McNeil

2023-06-14 10:26:00 Wednesday ET

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show that good inclusive institutions contribute to better long-run economic growth.

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show that good inclusive institutions contribute to better long-run economic growth. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson

+See More

The Economist highlights a trifecta of plausible explanations for better economic fortunes during the current Trump administration.

Chanel Holden

2018-08-27 09:35:00 Monday ET

The Economist highlights a trifecta of plausible explanations for better economic fortunes during the current Trump administration.

President Trump and his Republican senators and supporters praise the recent economic revival of most American counties. The Economist highlights a trifecta

+See More

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of T-Mobile (U.S. stock symbol: $TMUS).

James Campbell

2025-10-06 10:27:00 Monday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fundamental analysis of T-Mobile (U.S. stock symbol: $TMUS).

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund

+See More

AYA fintech finbuzz analytic report on the global macro economic outlook Winter-Spring 2020

Andy Yeh Alpha

2020-02-02 11:32:00 Sunday ET

AYA fintech finbuzz analytic report on the global macro economic outlook Winter-Spring 2020

Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the current global economic outlook. As of Winter-Spring 2020, the analytical report delves into t

+See More