JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

Dan Rochefort

2023-04-14 13:32:00 Friday ET

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Charles Calomiris an

+See More

President Trump approves a phase one trade agreement with China.

Joseph Corr

2020-01-01 13:39:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump approves a phase one trade agreement with China.

President Trump approves a phase one trade agreement with China. This approval averts the introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports. In return, China s

+See More

President Trump escalates the current Sino-American trade war by imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.

Rose Prince

2018-08-03 07:33:00 Friday ET

President Trump escalates the current Sino-American trade war by imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports.

President Trump escalates the current Sino-American trade war by imposing 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports. These tariffs encompass chemical prod

+See More

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes.

Rose Prince

2019-08-14 10:31:00 Wednesday ET

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes.

Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes. The company adds only 2.7 million new subscribers in 2019Q2 in stark

+See More

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance (Part 2)

Chanel Holden

2022-02-15 14:41:00 Tuesday ET

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance (Part 2)

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance   Lee, C.M., Shleifer, A., and Thaler, R.H. (1990). Anomalies: closed-end mutual funds. Journal

+See More

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million users.

Peter Prince

2018-10-19 13:37:00 Friday ET

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million users.

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million active users. As PayPal beats the revenue and profit expectations o

+See More