JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024.

Dan Rochefort

2024-02-04 08:28:00 Sunday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024. Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the ma

+See More

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold.

Jacob Miramar

2018-12-07 11:35:00 Friday ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold. NYSE and NASDAQ share prices rebo

+See More

JPMorgan Chase CEO says President Trump has now awaken the animal spirits in U.S. stocks.

Dan Rochefort

2017-02-13 09:35:00 Monday ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO says President Trump has now awaken the animal spirits in U.S. stocks.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says President Trump has now awaken the *animal spirits* in the U.S. stock market. The key phrase, animal spirits, is the

+See More

Stock Synopsis: ESG value and momentum stock market portfolio strategies

Fiona Sydney

2024-03-26 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

Stock Synopsis: ESG value and momentum stock market portfolio strategies

Stock Synopsis: ESG value and momentum stock market portfolio strategies Since 2013, we have been delving into the broad topics of ESG (Environmental, So

+See More

PwC releases a new study of top innovators worldwide as of November 2018.

Daphne Basel

2018-11-07 08:30:00 Wednesday ET

PwC releases a new study of top innovators worldwide as of November 2018.

PwC releases a new study of top innovators worldwide as of November 2018. This study assesses the top 1,000 global companies that spend the most on R&D

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market issues, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Daphne Basel

2019-05-30 16:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market issues, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube May 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of May 2019: (1) Our proprietary alp

+See More