JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

AYA fintech finbuzz analytic report on the global macro economic outlook Winter-Spring 2020

Andy Yeh Alpha

2020-02-02 11:32:00 Sunday ET

AYA fintech finbuzz analytic report on the global macro economic outlook Winter-Spring 2020

Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the current global economic outlook. As of Winter-Spring 2020, the analytical report delves into t

+See More

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million users.

Peter Prince

2018-10-19 13:37:00 Friday ET

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million users.

PayPal earns great fintech reputation from its massive worldwide network of 250+ million active users. As PayPal beats the revenue and profit expectations o

+See More

AYA free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-03-31 11:40:00 Sunday ET

AYA free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019

AYA Analytica free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of March 2019: (1) Sargent-Wallac

+See More

Is Bitcoin a legitimate (crypto)currency or a new bubble waiting to implode?

Monica McNeil

2017-11-24 08:41:00 Friday ET

Is Bitcoin a legitimate (crypto)currency or a new bubble waiting to implode?

Is Bitcoin a legitimate (crypto)currency or a new bubble waiting to implode? As its prices skyrocket, bankers, pundits, and investors increasingly take side

+See More

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum.

Daphne Basel

2018-05-05 07:33:00 Saturday ET

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum.

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum in May 2018 despite the new GA

+See More

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report.

Peter Prince

2018-12-05 09:38:00 Wednesday ET

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report.

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report. Fed Chair Jerome Powell applauds both low inflation (2%) and low unemployment (

+See More