JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5%.

Olivia London

2018-08-05 12:34:00 Sun ET

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees great potential for 10-year government bond yields to rise to 5% in contrast to the current 3% 10-year Treasury bond yield. This bullish perspective reduces the relative likelihood of U.S. yield curve inversion that indicates a negative term spread between short-term and long-term Treasury bond yields. A negative term spread or yield curve inversion typically indicates the early dawn of an economic recession. On the basis of recent empirical evidence, this technical macroeconomic prediction has been correct since the 1970s.

Indeed, Dimon points out that the current bull market can run for another 2-3 more years. Dimon's bullish sentiment relies heavily upon the sunny scenario where the Federal Reserve continues the current interest rate hike in response to inflationary concerns. Core CPI inflation and PCE inflation hover around 2%; unemployment declines below 4%; and real GDP economic growth lands in the healthy range of 3% to 3.5% per annum. In other words, the U.S. economy now operates near full employment and productivity growth with moderate inflation.

However, several economists consider the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark a long shot due to subpar inflation expectations. In the alternative light, these experts suggest that the 5% Treasury bond yield benchmark may not be imminent until the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate hike until late-2019 or even early-2020.

In any case, Dimon's bullish perspective resonates well with the recent comments by Larry Kudlow, executive director of the National Economic Council. Specifically, Kudlow advocates the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in light of both full employment and 3.5%-4% real GDP economic growth in mid-2018. Kudlow even emphasizes that the current U.S. economic boom may continue until 2022-2024.

Overall, these fundamental factors contribute to upbeat investor sentiments toward the current economic boom in America.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2023-02-28 11:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism.

The Biden Inflation Reduction Act is central to modern world capitalism. As of 2022-2023, global inflation has gradually declined from the peak of 9.8% d

+See More

What are the best online stock market investment tools?

Amy Hamilton

2021-07-07 05:22:00 Wednesday ET

What are the best online stock market investment tools?

What are the best online stock market investment tools? Stock trading has seen an explosion since the start of the pandemic. As people lost their jobs an

+See More

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report.

Peter Prince

2018-12-05 09:38:00 Wednesday ET

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report.

Federal Reserve publishes its inaugural flagship financial stability report. Fed Chair Jerome Powell applauds both low inflation (2%) and low unemployment (

+See More

Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects more rate increases in late-2018.

Charlene Vos

2018-06-08 13:35:00 Friday ET

Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects more rate increases in late-2018.

The Federal Reserve delivers a second interest rate hike to 1.75%-2% and then expects subsequent rate increases in September and December 2018 to dampen inf

+See More

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance (Part 1)

Laura Hermes

2022-02-05 09:26:00 Saturday ET

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance (Part 1)

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance   Shiller, R.J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economi

+See More

Goop Founder and CEO Gwyneth Paltrow serves as a great inspiration for female entrepreneurs.

Laura Hermes

2019-12-01 10:31:00 Sunday ET

Goop Founder and CEO Gwyneth Paltrow serves as a great inspiration for female entrepreneurs.

Goop Founder and CEO Gwyneth Paltrow serves as a great inspiration for female entrepreneurs. Paltrow designs Goop as an online newsletter, and this newslett

+See More