2019-10-09 16:46:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath indicates that competitive currency devaluation may be an ineffective solution to improving export prospects. In the form of gradual interest rate cuts, Chinese expansionary monetary policy decisions help stimulate domestic demand for consumption goods, services, and capital investments.
However, this monetary expansion may inevitably weaken the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar and other core OECD currencies. This competitive currency devaluation renders Chinese exports more affordable. Meanwhile, this currency devaluation reduces global demand for more expensive Chinese imports. In the broader context of international trade, nevertheless, the recent empirical evidence shows that each 10% currency depreciation improves the trade balance by only 0.3% of real GDP economic output ceteris paribus. This evidence remains robust after the econometrician takes into account multi-year exchange rate fluctuations in response to interest rate cuts and other expansionary monetary policy decisions.
In light of these robust results, monetary expansion alone is unlikely to cause the large and persistent currency devaluation that the central bank needs to stimulate economic growth, employment, and capital accumulation. This economic insight further applies to the recent dovish interest rate cuts that the U.S. Federal Reserve institutes in response to a vocal president.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-03-14 16:43:00 Tuesday ET

Several feasible near-term reforms can substantially narrow the scope for global tax avoidance by closing information loopholes. Thomas Pogge and Krishen
2019-10-03 17:39:00 Thursday ET

President Trump indicates that he would consider an interim Sino-American trade deal in lieu of a full trade agreement. The Trump administration defers high
2018-01-02 12:39:00 Tuesday ET

Goldman Sachs takes a $5 billion net income hit that results from its offshore cash repatriation under the new Trump tax law. This income hit reflects 10%-1
2020-10-27 07:43:00 Tuesday ET

Most agile lean enterprises often choose to cut costs strategically to make their respective business models fit for growth. Vinay Couto, John Plansky,
2023-08-14 09:25:00 Monday ET

Peter Isard analyzes the proper economic policy reforms and root causes of global financial crises of the 1990s and 2008-2009. Peter Isard (2005) &nbs
2017-04-13 10:42:00 Thursday ET

President Donald Trump unveils the dramatic *tax overhaul proposal*. Through this tax plan, Trump replaces the current 7 income tax brackets with 3 leane