2019-10-09 16:46:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath indicates that competitive currency devaluation may be an ineffective solution to improving export prospects. In the form of gradual interest rate cuts, Chinese expansionary monetary policy decisions help stimulate domestic demand for consumption goods, services, and capital investments.
However, this monetary expansion may inevitably weaken the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar and other core OECD currencies. This competitive currency devaluation renders Chinese exports more affordable. Meanwhile, this currency devaluation reduces global demand for more expensive Chinese imports. In the broader context of international trade, nevertheless, the recent empirical evidence shows that each 10% currency depreciation improves the trade balance by only 0.3% of real GDP economic output ceteris paribus. This evidence remains robust after the econometrician takes into account multi-year exchange rate fluctuations in response to interest rate cuts and other expansionary monetary policy decisions.
In light of these robust results, monetary expansion alone is unlikely to cause the large and persistent currency devaluation that the central bank needs to stimulate economic growth, employment, and capital accumulation. This economic insight further applies to the recent dovish interest rate cuts that the U.S. Federal Reserve institutes in response to a vocal president.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2025-09-24 09:49:53 Wednesday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund
2023-12-03 11:33:00 Sunday ET

Macro innovations and asset alphas show significant mutual causation. April 2023 This brief article draws from the recent research publicati
2018-09-11 18:36:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump tweets that Apple can avoid tariff consequences by shifting its primary supply chain from China to America. These Trump tariffs on another $
2023-05-31 03:15:40 Wednesday ET

The U.S. further derisks and decouples from China. Why does the U.S. seek to further economically decouple from China? In recent times, th
2020-06-10 10:35:00 Wednesday ET

Most lean enterprises should facilitate the dual transformation of both core assets with fresh cash flows and new growth options. Scott Anthony, Clark Gi
2019-09-23 12:25:00 Monday ET

Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen contribute to a Wall Street Journal op-ed on monetary policy independence. These former Federal Reserve chiefs unit