2019-10-09 16:46:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath indicates that competitive currency devaluation may be an ineffective solution to improving export prospects. In the form of gradual interest rate cuts, Chinese expansionary monetary policy decisions help stimulate domestic demand for consumption goods, services, and capital investments.
However, this monetary expansion may inevitably weaken the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar and other core OECD currencies. This competitive currency devaluation renders Chinese exports more affordable. Meanwhile, this currency devaluation reduces global demand for more expensive Chinese imports. In the broader context of international trade, nevertheless, the recent empirical evidence shows that each 10% currency depreciation improves the trade balance by only 0.3% of real GDP economic output ceteris paribus. This evidence remains robust after the econometrician takes into account multi-year exchange rate fluctuations in response to interest rate cuts and other expansionary monetary policy decisions.
In light of these robust results, monetary expansion alone is unlikely to cause the large and persistent currency devaluation that the central bank needs to stimulate economic growth, employment, and capital accumulation. This economic insight further applies to the recent dovish interest rate cuts that the U.S. Federal Reserve institutes in response to a vocal president.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-05-09 10:28:00 Thursday ET

President Trump ramps up 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports soon after China backtracks on the Sino-American trade agreement. U.S. trade envoy Robe
2019-02-07 07:25:00 Thursday ET

President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism. The Trump administration seems to prefer bilateral negotiat
2019-10-31 13:38:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube October 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of October 2019: (1)
2019-05-05 10:46:10 Sunday ET

This video collection shows the major features of our AYA fintech network platform for stock market investors: (1) AYA stock market content curation;&nbs
2017-06-21 05:36:00 Wednesday ET

In his latest Berkshire Hathaway annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in seve
2019-06-25 10:34:00 Tuesday ET

Investing in stocks is the best way for people to become self-made millionaires. A recent Gallup poll indicates that only 37% of young Americans below the a