2019-10-09 16:46:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath indicates that competitive currency devaluation may be an ineffective solution to improving export prospects. In the form of gradual interest rate cuts, Chinese expansionary monetary policy decisions help stimulate domestic demand for consumption goods, services, and capital investments.
However, this monetary expansion may inevitably weaken the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar and other core OECD currencies. This competitive currency devaluation renders Chinese exports more affordable. Meanwhile, this currency devaluation reduces global demand for more expensive Chinese imports. In the broader context of international trade, nevertheless, the recent empirical evidence shows that each 10% currency depreciation improves the trade balance by only 0.3% of real GDP economic output ceteris paribus. This evidence remains robust after the econometrician takes into account multi-year exchange rate fluctuations in response to interest rate cuts and other expansionary monetary policy decisions.
In light of these robust results, monetary expansion alone is unlikely to cause the large and persistent currency devaluation that the central bank needs to stimulate economic growth, employment, and capital accumulation. This economic insight further applies to the recent dovish interest rate cuts that the U.S. Federal Reserve institutes in response to a vocal president.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-04-19 12:35:00 Friday ET

Federal Reserve proposes to revamp post-crisis rules for U.S. banks. The current proposals would prescribe materially less strict requirements for community
2018-03-15 07:41:00 Thursday ET

The Trump administration's $1.5 trillion hefty tax cuts and $1 trillion infrastructure expenditures may speed up the Federal Reserve interest rate hike
2019-11-13 11:34:00 Wednesday ET

The new Brexit deal can boost British pound appreciation and economic optimism. British prime minister Boris Johnson wins the parliamentary vote on his new
2023-04-14 13:32:00 Friday ET

Calomiris and Haber delve into the comparative analysis of bank crises and politics in America, Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Charles Calomiris an
2018-08-11 14:35:00 Saturday ET

The Trump administration imposes 20%-50% tariffs on Turkish imports due to a recent spat over the detention of an American pastor, Andrew Brunson, in Turkey
2019-08-01 11:33:00 Thursday ET

Many young and mid-career Americans fall into the financial distress trap in rural communities. A recent analysis of 25,800 zip codes for 99% of the U.S. po