2019-10-09 16:46:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath indicates that competitive currency devaluation may be an ineffective solution to improving export prospects. In the form of gradual interest rate cuts, Chinese expansionary monetary policy decisions help stimulate domestic demand for consumption goods, services, and capital investments.
However, this monetary expansion may inevitably weaken the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar and other core OECD currencies. This competitive currency devaluation renders Chinese exports more affordable. Meanwhile, this currency devaluation reduces global demand for more expensive Chinese imports. In the broader context of international trade, nevertheless, the recent empirical evidence shows that each 10% currency depreciation improves the trade balance by only 0.3% of real GDP economic output ceteris paribus. This evidence remains robust after the econometrician takes into account multi-year exchange rate fluctuations in response to interest rate cuts and other expansionary monetary policy decisions.
In light of these robust results, monetary expansion alone is unlikely to cause the large and persistent currency devaluation that the central bank needs to stimulate economic growth, employment, and capital accumulation. This economic insight further applies to the recent dovish interest rate cuts that the U.S. Federal Reserve institutes in response to a vocal president.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-03-14 16:43:00 Tuesday ET

Several feasible near-term reforms can substantially narrow the scope for global tax avoidance by closing information loopholes. Thomas Pogge and Krishen
2020-10-27 07:43:00 Tuesday ET

Most agile lean enterprises often choose to cut costs strategically to make their respective business models fit for growth. Vinay Couto, John Plansky,
2018-10-21 14:40:00 Sunday ET

President Trump floats generous 10% tax cuts for the U.S. middle class ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections. Republican senators, congressmen, and
2018-05-23 09:41:00 Wednesday ET

Many U.S. large public corporations spend their tax cuts on new dividend payout and share buyback but not on new job creation and R&D innovation. These
2025-09-16 09:27:00 Tuesday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund
2022-03-05 09:27:00 Saturday ET

Addendum on empirical tests of multi-factor models for asset return prediction Fama and French (2015) propose an empirical five-factor asset pricing mode