Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn.

Monica McNeil

2019-09-17 08:33:00 Tue ET

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn. Many stock market investors become anxious due to negative term spreads and negative interest rates worldwide. As the 10-year Treasury bond yield exceeds the 3-month Treasury bill yield, the U.S. experiences another yield-curve inversion that often serves as an important economic indicator of the next recession. In Germany, prime interest rates become negative across the board from overnight deposits to 30-year government bonds. Further, negative yields extend to 50-year government bonds in Switzerland.

In terms of core asset price normalization, the greenback appreciates substantially against several currencies such as the Chinese renminbi, British pound, Euro, and Japanese yen. Copper prices decline substantially to reflect a major deterioration in industrial production; gold prices reach their 6-year peak; and the recent Iranian seizure of Gulf oil tankers causes sharp oil price fluctuations. Pervasive investor fear and anxiety can permeate key global asset markets as these economic signals portend a major recession. Other important economic indicators include sovereign-debt-to-real-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits, and current account deficits etc. In this light, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, and Venezuela seem to carry the highest risks as the capital outflows substantially exceed the capital inflows of foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history.

Jacob Miramar

2019-01-10 17:31:00 Thursday ET

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history.

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history. The resultant biopharma goliath would be

+See More

Apple revises down its global sales revenue estimate to $83 billion due to subpar smartphone sales in China.

James Campbell

2019-01-09 07:33:00 Wednesday ET

Apple revises down its global sales revenue estimate to $83 billion due to subpar smartphone sales in China.

Apple revises down its global sales revenue estimate to $83 billion due to subpar smartphone sales in China. Apple CEO Tim Cook points out the fact that he

+See More

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024

Dan Rochefort

2024-03-19 03:35:58 Tuesday ET

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024

U.S. presidential election: a re-match between Biden and Trump in November 2024 We delve into the 5 major economic themes of the U.S. presidential electi

+See More

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

Charlene Vos

2019-04-29 08:35:00 Monday ET

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key

+See More

The Federal Reserve proposes softening the Volcker rule that prevents banks from placing risky bets on securities with deposit finance.

James Campbell

2018-05-27 08:33:00 Sunday ET

The Federal Reserve proposes softening the Volcker rule that prevents banks from placing risky bets on securities with deposit finance.

The Federal Reserve proposes softening the Volcker rule that prevents banks from placing risky bets on securities with deposit finance. As part of the po

+See More

The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer.

Apple Boston

2019-08-20 07:33:00 Tuesday ET

The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer.

The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer. Britain appoints former London mayor and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson as the prime minis

+See More