Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn.

Monica McNeil

2019-09-17 08:33:00 Tue ET

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn. Many stock market investors become anxious due to negative term spreads and negative interest rates worldwide. As the 10-year Treasury bond yield exceeds the 3-month Treasury bill yield, the U.S. experiences another yield-curve inversion that often serves as an important economic indicator of the next recession. In Germany, prime interest rates become negative across the board from overnight deposits to 30-year government bonds. Further, negative yields extend to 50-year government bonds in Switzerland.

In terms of core asset price normalization, the greenback appreciates substantially against several currencies such as the Chinese renminbi, British pound, Euro, and Japanese yen. Copper prices decline substantially to reflect a major deterioration in industrial production; gold prices reach their 6-year peak; and the recent Iranian seizure of Gulf oil tankers causes sharp oil price fluctuations. Pervasive investor fear and anxiety can permeate key global asset markets as these economic signals portend a major recession. Other important economic indicators include sovereign-debt-to-real-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits, and current account deficits etc. In this light, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, and Venezuela seem to carry the highest risks as the capital outflows substantially exceed the capital inflows of foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

Apple Boston

2019-04-09 11:29:00 Tuesday ET

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis. The key term spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasur

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-02-28 20:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube February 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of February 2019: (1) our proprieta

+See More

Sprint and T-Mobile propose a major merger in order to better compete with AT&T and Verizon.

Joseph Corr

2018-05-03 07:34:00 Thursday ET

Sprint and T-Mobile propose a major merger in order to better compete with AT&T and Verizon.

Sprint and T-Mobile propose a major merger in order to better compete with AT&T and Verizon. This mega merger is worth $26.5 billion and involves an all

+See More

Generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) uses large language models (LLM) to create online contents with better human productivity.

Monica McNeil

2024-10-31 09:26:00 Thursday ET

Generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) uses large language models (LLM) to create online contents with better human productivity.

Generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) uses large language models (LLM) and content generation tools to enhance human lives with better productivity.

+See More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024.

Dan Rochefort

2024-02-04 08:28:00 Sunday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indexes from 2017 to 2024. Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the ma

+See More

Berkeley macro economist Brad DeLong sees no good reasons for an imminent economic recession with mass unemployment and even depression.

Laura Hermes

2019-11-21 11:34:00 Thursday ET

Berkeley macro economist Brad DeLong sees no good reasons for an imminent economic recession with mass unemployment and even depression.

Berkeley macro economist Brad DeLong sees no good reasons for an imminent economic recession with mass unemployment and even depression. The current U.S. ec

+See More