Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn.

Monica McNeil

2019-09-17 08:33:00 Tue ET

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn. Many stock market investors become anxious due to negative term spreads and negative interest rates worldwide. As the 10-year Treasury bond yield exceeds the 3-month Treasury bill yield, the U.S. experiences another yield-curve inversion that often serves as an important economic indicator of the next recession. In Germany, prime interest rates become negative across the board from overnight deposits to 30-year government bonds. Further, negative yields extend to 50-year government bonds in Switzerland.

In terms of core asset price normalization, the greenback appreciates substantially against several currencies such as the Chinese renminbi, British pound, Euro, and Japanese yen. Copper prices decline substantially to reflect a major deterioration in industrial production; gold prices reach their 6-year peak; and the recent Iranian seizure of Gulf oil tankers causes sharp oil price fluctuations. Pervasive investor fear and anxiety can permeate key global asset markets as these economic signals portend a major recession. Other important economic indicators include sovereign-debt-to-real-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits, and current account deficits etc. In this light, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, and Venezuela seem to carry the highest risks as the capital outflows substantially exceed the capital inflows of foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Buffett discusses Berkshire's cash ambition, its reinsurance business, and his succession plan.

Becky Berkman

2018-02-23 09:35:00 Friday ET

Buffett discusses Berkshire's cash ambition, its reinsurance business, and his succession plan.

Warren Buffett releases his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders as of February 2018. Buffett discusses Berkshire's core cash ambition, its

+See More

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

Daisy Harvey

2018-01-04 07:36:00 Thursday ET

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options.

The world now faces an economic inequality crisis with few policy options. Some recent U.S. Federal Reserve data suggest that both income and wealth inequal

+See More

Warren Buffett points out that it is important to invest in oneself with better interpersonal communication.

Daphne Basel

2017-12-17 11:41:00 Sunday ET

Warren Buffett points out that it is important to invest in oneself with better interpersonal communication.

Warren Buffett points out that it is important to invest in oneself. Learning about oneself empowers him or her to lead a meaningful life. This valuable inv

+See More

Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro sees no good reasons for the recent sudden reversal of U.S. monetary policy normalization.

Laura Hermes

2019-09-09 20:38:00 Monday ET

Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro sees no good reasons for the recent sudden reversal of U.S. monetary policy normalization.

Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro sees no good reasons for the recent sudden reversal of U.S. monetary policy normalization. As Federal Reserve Ch

+See More

What are the top global risks in trade, finance, and technology as of mid-2023?

Andy Yeh Alpha

2023-05-31 11:27:00 Wednesday ET

What are the top global risks in trade, finance, and technology as of mid-2023?

What are the top global risks in trade, finance, and technology? In this macro report, we focus on the current global risks from inflation and growth con

+See More

Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance.

Becky Berkman

2018-05-13 08:33:00 Sunday ET

Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance.

Incoming New York Fed President John Williams suggests that it is about time to end forward guidance in order to stop holding the financial market's han

+See More