Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn.

Monica McNeil

2019-09-17 08:33:00 Tue ET

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn. Many stock market investors become anxious due to negative term spreads and negative interest rates worldwide. As the 10-year Treasury bond yield exceeds the 3-month Treasury bill yield, the U.S. experiences another yield-curve inversion that often serves as an important economic indicator of the next recession. In Germany, prime interest rates become negative across the board from overnight deposits to 30-year government bonds. Further, negative yields extend to 50-year government bonds in Switzerland.

In terms of core asset price normalization, the greenback appreciates substantially against several currencies such as the Chinese renminbi, British pound, Euro, and Japanese yen. Copper prices decline substantially to reflect a major deterioration in industrial production; gold prices reach their 6-year peak; and the recent Iranian seizure of Gulf oil tankers causes sharp oil price fluctuations. Pervasive investor fear and anxiety can permeate key global asset markets as these economic signals portend a major recession. Other important economic indicators include sovereign-debt-to-real-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits, and current account deficits etc. In this light, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, and Venezuela seem to carry the highest risks as the capital outflows substantially exceed the capital inflows of foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Yale macro economist Stephen Roach draws 3 major conclusions with respect to the Chinese long-run view of the current tech trade conflict with America.

Joseph Corr

2019-09-05 09:26:00 Thursday ET

Yale macro economist Stephen Roach draws 3 major conclusions with respect to the Chinese long-run view of the current tech trade conflict with America.

Yale macro economist Stephen Roach draws 3 major conclusions with respect to the Chinese long-run view of the current tech trade conflict with America. Firs

+See More

The U.S. stock market delivers a hefty long-term average return of 11% per annum.

Peter Prince

2017-03-09 05:32:00 Thursday ET

The U.S. stock market delivers a hefty long-term average return of 11% per annum.

From 1927 to 2017, the U.S. stock market has delivered a hefty average return of about 11% per annum. The U.S. average stock market return is high in stark

+See More

Presidents Trump and Xi agree on an interim trade truce at the G20 summit in Argentina.

Apple Boston

2018-12-09 08:44:00 Sunday ET

Presidents Trump and Xi agree on an interim trade truce at the G20 summit in Argentina.

President Trump meets with Chinese President Xi again at the G20 summit in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, in late-November 2018. President Donald Trum

+See More

Analytic business competitors apply smart data science to support their distinctive capabilities and strategic advantages.

Peter Prince

2020-11-24 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

Analytic business competitors apply smart data science to support their distinctive capabilities and strategic advantages.

Many analytic business competitors can apply smart data science to support their distinctive capabilities and strategic advantages. Thomas Davenport and

+See More

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide.

James Campbell

2023-04-21 12:39:00 Friday ET

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide.

Angus Deaton analyzes the correlation between health and wealth in light of the economic origins of inequality worldwide. Angus Deaton (2015)  

+See More

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance.

Monica McNeil

2018-07-30 11:36:00 Monday ET

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance.

Trumpism may now become the new populist world order of economic governance. Populist support contributes to Trump's 2016 presidential election victory

+See More