Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn.

Monica McNeil

2019-09-17 08:33:00 Tue ET

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn. Many stock market investors become anxious due to negative term spreads and negative interest rates worldwide. As the 10-year Treasury bond yield exceeds the 3-month Treasury bill yield, the U.S. experiences another yield-curve inversion that often serves as an important economic indicator of the next recession. In Germany, prime interest rates become negative across the board from overnight deposits to 30-year government bonds. Further, negative yields extend to 50-year government bonds in Switzerland.

In terms of core asset price normalization, the greenback appreciates substantially against several currencies such as the Chinese renminbi, British pound, Euro, and Japanese yen. Copper prices decline substantially to reflect a major deterioration in industrial production; gold prices reach their 6-year peak; and the recent Iranian seizure of Gulf oil tankers causes sharp oil price fluctuations. Pervasive investor fear and anxiety can permeate key global asset markets as these economic signals portend a major recession. Other important economic indicators include sovereign-debt-to-real-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits, and current account deficits etc. In this light, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, and Venezuela seem to carry the highest risks as the capital outflows substantially exceed the capital inflows of foreign direct investment.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

President Trump considers imposing retaliatory economic sanctions on Chinese products.

Peter Prince

2018-01-10 08:40:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump considers imposing retaliatory economic sanctions on Chinese products.

President Trump considers imposing retaliatory economic sanctions on Chinese products and services in direct response to China's theft and infringement

+See More

Trump's presidential election victory caused an unpredictable *black swan* in almost every non-U.S. stock market in the world.

Fiona Sydney

2016-11-09 00:00:00 Wednesday ET

Trump's presidential election victory caused an unpredictable *black swan* in almost every non-U.S. stock market in the world.

Universally dismissed as a vanity presidential candidate when he entered a field crowded with Republican talent, the former Democrat and former Independent

+See More

President Trump refreshes his public image through his presidential address to Congress.

Daisy Harvey

2017-02-01 14:41:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump refreshes his public image through his presidential address to Congress.

President Trump refreshes his public image through his presidential address to Congress with numerous ambitious economic policies in order to make America g

+See More

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

Charlene Vos

2019-04-29 08:35:00 Monday ET

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts no global recession with key downside risks at this delicate moment. First, trade tensions remain one of the key

+See More

Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea.

Peter Prince

2018-04-13 14:42:00 Friday ET

Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea.

Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea with no regime change as the North Korean dicta

+See More

Basic income reforms can contribute to better health care, infrastructure, education, technology, and residential protection.

Daisy Harvey

2023-02-28 10:27:00 Tuesday ET

Basic income reforms can contribute to better health care, infrastructure, education, technology, and residential protection.

Basic income reforms can contribute to better health care, public infrastructure, education, technology, and residential protection. Philippe Van Parijs

+See More