2019-02-04 07:42:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate adjustments due to global headwinds and impasses over American trade and fiscal budget negotiations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledges that future interest rate adjustments react to generic macroeconomic conditions.
Patience can be a key virtue. U.S. economic history suggests that the federal funds rate tends to peak in the reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5%. In comparison, several eminent economists such as former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke suggest that we may enter a new era of persistently low interest rates. This putative scenario can be good news for debtors such as American households and federal government, the latter of which now carries about $16 trillion public debt. The same putative scenario may become bad news for most U.S. retirees who live off meager interest income on their deposits and annuities. This low-interest-rate environment can inadvertently continue to inflate asset prices. As a result, U.S. stocks soar in response to the dovish monetary policy stance with balance sheet flexibility. As the Federal Reserve keeps the key interest rate in the target range of 2.25%-2.5%, the trade-weighted average U.S. dollar index plummets to 91%. The recent greenback depreciation reflects a major reversal of U.S. credit flows in comparison to the 95% dollar peak back in January 2017.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-03-19 12:35:00 Tuesday ET
U.S. tech titans increasingly hire PhD economists to help solve business problems. These key tech titans include Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple,
2022-10-15 09:34:00 Saturday ET
Internal capital markets and financial constraints Duchin (JF 2010) empirically finds that multidivisional firms with robust internal capital markets ret
2023-03-07 11:29:00 Tuesday ET
Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King provides his deep substantive analysis of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Mervyn King (2017) &nb
2020-08-01 07:28:00 Saturday ET
Technological advances, geopolitical risks, and pandemic outbreaks cannot shake investor confidence in the American dollar as the global reserve currency.
2019-09-05 09:26:00 Thursday ET
Yale macro economist Stephen Roach draws 3 major conclusions with respect to the Chinese long-run view of the current tech trade conflict with America. Firs
2018-08-19 10:34:00 Sunday ET
The World Economic Forum warns that artificial intelligence may destabilize the financial system. Artificial intelligence poses at least a trifecta of major