2019-02-04 07:42:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate adjustments due to global headwinds and impasses over American trade and fiscal budget negotiations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledges that future interest rate adjustments react to generic macroeconomic conditions.
Patience can be a key virtue. U.S. economic history suggests that the federal funds rate tends to peak in the reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5%. In comparison, several eminent economists such as former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke suggest that we may enter a new era of persistently low interest rates. This putative scenario can be good news for debtors such as American households and federal government, the latter of which now carries about $16 trillion public debt. The same putative scenario may become bad news for most U.S. retirees who live off meager interest income on their deposits and annuities. This low-interest-rate environment can inadvertently continue to inflate asset prices. As a result, U.S. stocks soar in response to the dovish monetary policy stance with balance sheet flexibility. As the Federal Reserve keeps the key interest rate in the target range of 2.25%-2.5%, the trade-weighted average U.S. dollar index plummets to 91%. The recent greenback depreciation reflects a major reversal of U.S. credit flows in comparison to the 95% dollar peak back in January 2017.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-05-01 09:27:00 Wednesday ET
Apple settles its 2-year intellectual property lawsuit with Qualcomm by agreeing to a multi-year patent license with royalty payments to the microchip maker
2023-06-28 09:29:00 Wednesday ET
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff delve into several centuries of cross-country crisis data to find the key root causes of financial crises for asset marke
2022-03-05 09:27:00 Saturday ET
Addendum on empirical tests of multi-factor models for asset return prediction Fama and French (2015) propose an empirical five-factor asset pricing mode
2018-01-13 08:39:00 Saturday ET
The Economist digs deep into the political economy of U.S. government shutdown over 3 days in January 2018. In more than 4 years since 2014, U.S. government
2018-12-18 10:38:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump threatens to shut down the U.S. government in 2019 if Democrats refuse to help approve $5 billion public finance for the southern border wal
2023-04-28 16:38:00 Friday ET
Peter Schuck analyzes U.S. government failures and structural problems in light of both institutions and incentives. Peter Schuck (2015) Why