2019-02-04 07:42:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate adjustments due to global headwinds and impasses over American trade and fiscal budget negotiations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledges that future interest rate adjustments react to generic macroeconomic conditions.
Patience can be a key virtue. U.S. economic history suggests that the federal funds rate tends to peak in the reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5%. In comparison, several eminent economists such as former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke suggest that we may enter a new era of persistently low interest rates. This putative scenario can be good news for debtors such as American households and federal government, the latter of which now carries about $16 trillion public debt. The same putative scenario may become bad news for most U.S. retirees who live off meager interest income on their deposits and annuities. This low-interest-rate environment can inadvertently continue to inflate asset prices. As a result, U.S. stocks soar in response to the dovish monetary policy stance with balance sheet flexibility. As the Federal Reserve keeps the key interest rate in the target range of 2.25%-2.5%, the trade-weighted average U.S. dollar index plummets to 91%. The recent greenback depreciation reflects a major reversal of U.S. credit flows in comparison to the 95% dollar peak back in January 2017.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-04-29 13:44:00 Sunday ET
College education offers a hefty 8.8% pay premium for each marginal increase in the number of years of intellectual attainment in contrast to the 5.6%-6% lo
2018-01-01 06:30:00 Monday ET
As former chairman of the British Financial Services Authority and former director of the London School of Economics, Howard Davies shares his ingenious ins
2019-12-30 11:28:00 Monday ET
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube December 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of December 2019: (1) The Trump adm
2025-06-21 10:25:00 Saturday ET
Former New York Times science author and Harvard psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why emotional intelligence can serve as a more important critical succ
2017-02-07 07:47:00 Tuesday ET
With prescient clairvoyance, Bill Gates predicted the recent sustainable rise of Netflix and Facebook during a Playboy interview back in 1994. He said th
2018-10-27 09:34:00 Saturday ET
U.S. automobile and real estate sales decline despite higher consumer confidence and low unemployment as of October 2018. This slowdown arises from the curr