2019-02-04 07:42:00 Mon ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate adjustments due to global headwinds and impasses over American trade and fiscal budget negotiations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledges that future interest rate adjustments react to generic macroeconomic conditions.
Patience can be a key virtue. U.S. economic history suggests that the federal funds rate tends to peak in the reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5%. In comparison, several eminent economists such as former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke suggest that we may enter a new era of persistently low interest rates. This putative scenario can be good news for debtors such as American households and federal government, the latter of which now carries about $16 trillion public debt. The same putative scenario may become bad news for most U.S. retirees who live off meager interest income on their deposits and annuities. This low-interest-rate environment can inadvertently continue to inflate asset prices. As a result, U.S. stocks soar in response to the dovish monetary policy stance with balance sheet flexibility. As the Federal Reserve keeps the key interest rate in the target range of 2.25%-2.5%, the trade-weighted average U.S. dollar index plummets to 91%. The recent greenback depreciation reflects a major reversal of U.S. credit flows in comparison to the 95% dollar peak back in January 2017.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-01-21 10:37:00 Monday ET
Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM) podcast channel on YouTube January 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues
2017-03-15 08:46:00 Wednesday ET
The heuristic rule of *accumulative advantage* suggests that a small fraction of the population enjoys a large proportion of both capital and wealth creatio
2018-09-21 09:41:00 Friday ET
Former World Bank and IMF chief advisor Anne Krueger explains why the Trump administration's current tariff tactics undermine the multilateral global tr
2018-12-15 14:38:00 Saturday ET
Google CEO Sundar Pichai makes his debut testimony before Congress. The post-mid-term-election House Judiciary Committee bombards Pichai with key questions
2019-01-02 06:28:00 Wednesday ET
New York Fed CEO John Williams listens to sharp share price declines as part of the data-dependent interest rate policy. The Federal Reserve can respond to
2018-07-03 11:42:00 Tuesday ET
President Trump's current trade policies appear like the Reagan administration's protectionist trade policies back in the 1980s. In comparison to th