2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.
This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.
Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-07-31 11:34:00 Wednesday ET
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube July 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of July 2019: (1) All 18 systemical
2018-04-07 09:36:00 Saturday ET
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testifies in Congress to rise up to the challenge of public outrage in response to the Cambridge Analytica data debacle and use
2018-05-03 07:34:00 Thursday ET
Sprint and T-Mobile propose a major merger in order to better compete with AT&T and Verizon. This mega merger is worth $26.5 billion and involves an all
2018-09-05 08:34:00 Wednesday ET
Citron Research short-sellers initiate a class-action lawsuit against Tesla and its executive chairman Elon Musk because he might have deliberately orchestr
2021-02-01 10:19:00 Monday ET
In recent times, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the fiscal-debt-to-GDP ratio of most rich economies would rise from 95% in 2018 to 135%
2019-03-15 13:36:00 Friday ET
CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends both Caterpillar and Home Depot as the U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comment