2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.
This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.
Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-09-01 07:34:00 Saturday ET

As the French economist who studies global economic inequality in his recent book *Capital in the New Century*, Thomas Piketty co-authors with John Bates Cl
2018-01-09 08:33:00 Tuesday ET

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink emphasizes his key conviction that public corporations should make a positive contribution to society apart from boosting the botto
2018-03-25 08:39:00 Sunday ET

President Trump imposes punitive tariffs on $60 billion Chinese imports in a brand-new trade war as China hits back with retaliatory tariffs on $3 billion U
2023-07-14 10:32:00 Friday ET

Ray Fair applies his macroeconometric model to study the central features of the U.S. macroeconomy such as price stability and full employment in the dual m
2019-02-01 15:35:00 Friday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. We implem
2023-11-30 08:29:00 Thursday ET

In addition to the OECD bank-credit-card model and Chinese online payment platforms, the open-payments gateways of UPI in India and Pix in Brazil have adapt