2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.
This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.
Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2025-09-18 08:03:32 Thursday ET

Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund
2023-05-31 03:15:40 Wednesday ET

The U.S. further derisks and decouples from China. Why does the U.S. seek to further economically decouple from China? In recent times, th
2019-05-11 10:28:00 Saturday ET

The Trump administration still expects to reach a Sino-U.S. trade agreement with a better mechanism for intellectual property protection and enforcement. Pr
2022-02-05 09:26:00 Saturday ET

Modern themes and insights in behavioral finance Shiller, R.J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economi
2018-03-23 08:26:00 Friday ET

Personal finance and investment author Thomas Corley studies and shares the rich habits of self-made millionaires. Corley has spent 5 years studying the dai
2023-05-28 10:24:00 Sunday ET

Thomas Piketty connects the dots between economic growth and inequality worldwide with long-term global empirical evidence. Thomas Piketty (2017) &nbs