Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy in early-October 2018.

Charlene Vos

2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.

This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.

Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

Fiona Sydney

2019-08-02 17:39:00 Friday ET

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disa

+See More

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.

Laura Hermes

2019-03-09 12:43:00 Saturday ET

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019. This tech unicorn allows users to pin-and-browse images through its social media app and website. Pintere

+See More

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2021.

Apple Boston

2021-02-02 14:24:00 Tuesday ET

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms most stock market indices from 2017 to 2021.

Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. We implement

+See More

Google CEO Sundar Pichai makes his debut testimony before Congress.

John Fourier

2018-12-15 14:38:00 Saturday ET

Google CEO Sundar Pichai makes his debut testimony before Congress.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai makes his debut testimony before Congress. The post-mid-term-election House Judiciary Committee bombards Pichai with key questions

+See More

CEO overconfidence and corporate performance

Laura Hermes

2022-11-05 11:32:00 Saturday ET

CEO overconfidence and corporate performance

CEO overconfidence and corporate performance Malmendier and Tate (JFE 2008, JF 2005) argue that overconfident CEOs are more likely to initiate mergers an

+See More

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce.

Dan Rochefort

2019-07-21 09:37:00 Sunday ET

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce.

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce. Libra will be available to all the 2 billion active users on Fa

+See More