Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy in early-October 2018.

Charlene Vos

2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.

This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.

Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on U.S. financial deregulation.

Peter Prince

2017-05-25 08:35:00 Thursday ET

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on U.S. financial deregulation.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on financial deregulation under the Trump administration. This financial deregulation seeks

+See More

Global debt surges to $250 trillion in the fiscal year 2019.

Olivia London

2019-12-28 09:36:00 Saturday ET

Global debt surges to $250 trillion in the fiscal year 2019.

Global debt surges to $250 trillion in the fiscal year 2019. The International Institute of Finance analytic report shows that both China and the U.S. accou

+See More

Central banks learn to weigh the monetary policy trade-offs between output and inflation expectations and macro-financial stress conditions.

Becky Berkman

2026-01-31 10:31:00 Saturday ET

Central banks learn to weigh the monetary policy trade-offs between output and inflation expectations and macro-financial stress conditions.

  In recent years, several central banks conduct, assess, and discuss the core lessons, rules, and challenges from their monetary policy framework r

+See More

Agile lean enterprises remain flexible and capable of reinvention in light of new megatrends such as digitization and servitization.

Amy Hamilton

2020-10-20 09:36:00 Tuesday ET

Agile lean enterprises remain flexible and capable of reinvention in light of new megatrends such as digitization and servitization.

Agile lean enterprises remain flexible and capable of reinvention in light of new megatrends such as digitization and servitization. Shane Cragun and Kat

+See More

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

Fiona Sydney

2019-08-02 17:39:00 Friday ET

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Stanford finance professor John Cochrane disa

+See More

Disruptive innovators compete against luck by figuring out why customers hire products and services to accomplish specific jobs.

John Fourier

2020-05-14 12:35:00 Thursday ET

Disruptive innovators compete against luck by figuring out why customers hire products and services to accomplish specific jobs.

Disruptive innovators can better compete against luck by figuring out why customers hire products and services to accomplish jobs. Clayton Christensen, T

+See More