2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.
This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.
Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2019-09-11 09:31:00 Wednesday ET

Central banks in India, Thailand, and New Zealand lower their interest rates in a defensive response to the Federal Reserve recent rate cut. The central ban
2019-05-03 11:29:00 Friday ET

Key tech unicorns blitzscale business niches for better scale economies from Uber and Lyft to Pinterest, Slack, and Zoom. LinkedIn cofounder and serial entr
2023-12-03 11:33:00 Sunday ET

Macro innovations and asset alphas show significant mutual causation. April 2023 This brief article draws from the recent research publicati
2026-05-02 10:28:00 Saturday ET

Stephen Covey recommends the 8th habit for effective team leaders to find their own voices (in addition to the 7 habits of highly effective people). In esse
2019-09-17 08:33:00 Tuesday ET

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn. Many stock market investors become anxious due to negative term spreads an
2018-04-07 09:36:00 Saturday ET

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testifies in Congress to rise up to the challenge of public outrage in response to the Cambridge Analytica data debacle and use