2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.
This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.
Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-01-21 07:25:00 Sunday ET

As he refrains from using the memorable phrase *irrational exuberance* to assess bullish investor sentiments, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan discerns as
2019-07-29 11:33:00 Monday ET

Blackrock asset research director Andrew Ang shares his economic insights into fundamental factors for global asset management. As Ang indicates in an inter
2019-08-04 08:26:00 Sunday ET

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit in Japan.
2025-08-09 11:31:00 Saturday ET

Wharton e-commerce entrepreneurship professor Dr Karl Ulrich explains that many top-notch universities now provide massive open online courses (MOOCs) for m
2019-01-25 13:34:00 Friday ET

Netflix raises its prices by 13% to 18% for U.S. subscribers. The immediate stock market price soars 6.5% as a result of this upward price adjustment. The b
2018-09-25 10:35:00 Tuesday ET

Sirius XM pays $3.5 billion shares to acquire the music app company Pandora. This acquisition would form the largest audio entertainment company worldwide.