2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.
This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.
Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-08-14 09:25:00 Monday ET

Peter Isard analyzes the proper economic policy reforms and root causes of global financial crises of the 1990s and 2008-2009. Peter Isard (2005) &nbs
2023-12-05 09:25:00 Tuesday ET

Better corporate ownership governance through worldwide convergence toward Berle-Means stock ownership dispersion Abstract We design a model
2019-07-03 11:35:00 Wednesday ET

U.S. regulatory agencies may consider broader economic issues in their antitrust probe into tech titans such as Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google etc. Hou
2019-09-15 14:35:00 Sunday ET

U.S. Treasury officially designates China a key currency manipulator in the broader context of Sino-American trade dispute resolution. The U.S. Treasury cla
2017-03-09 05:32:00 Thursday ET

From 1927 to 2017, the U.S. stock market has delivered a hefty average return of about 11% per annum. The U.S. average stock market return is high in stark
2023-05-14 12:31:00 Sunday ET

Paul Samuelson defines the mathematical evolution of economic price theory and thereby influences many economists in business cycle theory and macro asset m