2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.
This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.
Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2024-10-27 07:56:01 Sunday ET

Stock Synopsis: China Internet tech titans continue to grow amid greater competition. We launch our unique coverage of top 25 China Internet stocks. In t
2019-09-03 14:29:00 Tuesday ET

Due to U.S. tariffs and other cloudy causes of economic policy uncertainty, Apple, Nintendo, and Samsung start to consider making tech products in Vietnam i
2017-07-07 10:33:00 Friday ET

Warren Buffett invests in American stocks across numerous industries such as energy, air transport, finance, technology, retail provision, and so forth.
2017-05-13 07:28:00 Saturday ET

America's Top 5 tech firms, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable publicly listed companies in the world. These
2023-05-31 11:27:00 Wednesday ET

What are the top global risks in trade, finance, and technology? In this macro report, we focus on the current global risks from inflation and growth con
2020-02-26 09:30:00 Wednesday ET

Goldman Sachs follows the timeless business principles and best practices in financial market design and investment management. William Cohan (2011) M