2018-10-03 11:37:00 Wed ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sees a remarkably positive outlook for the U.S. economy right after the recent interest rate hike as of September 2018. He humbly suggests that this positive outlook may be too good to be true. The U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation. The current U.S. unemployment rate is at the historically low level of 3.9%, and the inflation rate hovers around the Federal Reserve's medium-term target of 2%. These top-line statistics may not present an accurate picture of overall economic conditions, but a wide range of economic data on jobs and prices supports a positive view.
This combination not only serves well the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability, but also raises the reasonable question of whether real GDP economic growth is sustainable in the next few years. In light of high household consumption, capital investment, and credit supply expansion, the Federal Reserve expects real output growth to approach 3%+ until early-2020.
Low inflation and low unemployment arise as a rare combination in modern U.S. economic history. Whether this rare combination can sustain in the medium term remains an open controversy. With this ambivalence, U.S. economists, consumers, producers, and financial intermediaries remain in extraordinary times.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-02-07 07:47:00 Tuesday ET

With prescient clairvoyance, Bill Gates predicted the recent sustainable rise of Netflix and Facebook during a Playboy interview back in 1994. He said th
2019-11-06 12:29:00 Wednesday ET

Our fintech finbuzz analytic report shines fresh light on the fundamental prospects of U.S. tech titans Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (F.A.
2023-06-21 12:32:00 Wednesday ET

Michael Sandel analyzes what money cannot buy in stark contrast to the free market ideology of capitalism. Michael Sandel (2013) What money
2018-11-13 12:30:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump promises a great trade deal with China as Americans mull over mid-term elections. President Trump wants to reach a trade accord with Chinese
2018-05-05 07:33:00 Saturday ET

Warren Buffett shares his fresh economic insights and value investment strategies at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder forum in May 2018 despite the new GA
2020-01-08 08:25:00 Wednesday ET

Conservative Party wins the British parliamentary majority in the general election with hefty British pound appreciation. In response to this general electi