2019-11-19 09:33:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth. Despite a sharp slowdown in U.S. services and utilities, non-farm payrolls increase by 135,000-to-145,000 jobs on average per month in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. As of 2019Q4, The Economist and Reuters forecast higher U.S. non-farm payrolls in the next few quarters. As the U.S. unemployment rate tends to rise ahead of an economic recession, the recent decline in American unemployment pushes out the timeline for any potential recession into late-2020.
U.S. core inflation remain below the 2% target, and wage growth gradually declines from 3.2% to 2.9% per year. The U.S. labor market grows sustainably in the early resolution of uncertainty around the Sino-American trade conflict, Federal Reserve monetary policy reversal, Treasury fiscal stimulus, and asset price normalization for oil, gold, and the greenback etc. Several stock market analysts and investment bankers expect the U.S. economy to grow at 2%-3% per annum in 2019-2020. The reasonable real GDP momentum accords with the main stock market investment thesis that the Trump tax cuts help finance the current economic boom. U.S. fiscal stimulus hence contributes to greater economic growth, domestic job creation, and capital investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-04-13 14:42:00 Friday ET

Mike Pompeo switches his critical role from CIA Director to State Secretary in a secret visit to North Korea with no regime change as the North Korean dicta
2019-03-01 13:36:00 Friday ET

Global economic uncertainty now lurks in a thick layer of mystery. This uncertainty arises from Sino-U.S. trade tension, Brexit fallout, monetary policy nor
2018-11-21 11:36:00 Wednesday ET

Apple upstream suppliers from Foxconn and Pegatron to Radiance and Lumentum experience sharp share price declines during the Christmas 2017 holiday quarter.
2022-09-25 09:34:00 Sunday ET

Main reasons for share repurchases Temporary market undervaluation often induces corporate incumbents to initiate a share repurchase program to boost the
2018-08-25 12:33:00 Saturday ET

President Trump warns Google, Facebook, and Twitter that these tech titans now tread on troublesome territory. Specifically, Trump accuses Google of rigging
2019-04-07 13:39:00 Sunday ET

CNBC news anchor Becky Quick interviews Warren Buffett in early-2019. Buffett explains the fact that book value fluctuations are a metric that has lost rele