2019-11-19 09:33:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth. Despite a sharp slowdown in U.S. services and utilities, non-farm payrolls increase by 135,000-to-145,000 jobs on average per month in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. As of 2019Q4, The Economist and Reuters forecast higher U.S. non-farm payrolls in the next few quarters. As the U.S. unemployment rate tends to rise ahead of an economic recession, the recent decline in American unemployment pushes out the timeline for any potential recession into late-2020.
U.S. core inflation remain below the 2% target, and wage growth gradually declines from 3.2% to 2.9% per year. The U.S. labor market grows sustainably in the early resolution of uncertainty around the Sino-American trade conflict, Federal Reserve monetary policy reversal, Treasury fiscal stimulus, and asset price normalization for oil, gold, and the greenback etc. Several stock market analysts and investment bankers expect the U.S. economy to grow at 2%-3% per annum in 2019-2020. The reasonable real GDP momentum accords with the main stock market investment thesis that the Trump tax cuts help finance the current economic boom. U.S. fiscal stimulus hence contributes to greater economic growth, domestic job creation, and capital investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-10-19 08:26:00 Thursday ET

World politics, economics, and new ideas from the Psychology of Money written by Morgan Housel We would like to provide both economic and non-economic th
2024-03-26 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

Stock Synopsis: ESG value and momentum stock market portfolio strategies Since 2013, we have been delving into the broad topics of ESG (Environmental, So
2017-04-07 15:34:00 Friday ET

Would you rather receive $1,000 each day for one month or a magic penny that doubles each day over the same month? At first glance, this counterintuitive
2019-07-09 15:14:00 Tuesday ET

The Chinese new star board launches for tech firms to list at home. The Nasdaq-equivalent new star board serves as a key avenue for Chinese tech companies t
2019-10-29 13:36:00 Tuesday ET

The OECD projects global growth to decline from 3.2% to 2.9% in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. This global economic growth projection represents the slo
2019-09-30 07:33:00 Monday ET

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube September 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of September 2019: (1) Former