2019-11-19 09:33:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth. Despite a sharp slowdown in U.S. services and utilities, non-farm payrolls increase by 135,000-to-145,000 jobs on average per month in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. As of 2019Q4, The Economist and Reuters forecast higher U.S. non-farm payrolls in the next few quarters. As the U.S. unemployment rate tends to rise ahead of an economic recession, the recent decline in American unemployment pushes out the timeline for any potential recession into late-2020.
U.S. core inflation remain below the 2% target, and wage growth gradually declines from 3.2% to 2.9% per year. The U.S. labor market grows sustainably in the early resolution of uncertainty around the Sino-American trade conflict, Federal Reserve monetary policy reversal, Treasury fiscal stimulus, and asset price normalization for oil, gold, and the greenback etc. Several stock market analysts and investment bankers expect the U.S. economy to grow at 2%-3% per annum in 2019-2020. The reasonable real GDP momentum accords with the main stock market investment thesis that the Trump tax cuts help finance the current economic boom. U.S. fiscal stimulus hence contributes to greater economic growth, domestic job creation, and capital investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2017-12-09 08:37:00 Saturday ET

Michael Bloomberg, former NYC mayor and media entrepreneur, criticizes that the Trump administration's tax reform is a trillion dollar blunder because i
2018-02-27 09:35:00 Tuesday ET

Fed's new chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress for the first time. He vows to prevent price instability for U.S. consumers, firms, and finan
2017-05-19 09:39:00 Friday ET

FAMGA stands for Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. These tech giants account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the American stock
2023-10-14 10:32:00 Saturday ET

Jonathan Baker frames the current debate over antitrust merger review and enforcement in America. Jonathan Baker (2019) The antitrust paradi
2025-07-05 11:23:00 Saturday ET

Former New York Times science author and Harvard psychologist Daniel Goleman explains why working with emotional intelligence helps hone our social skills f
2018-09-09 13:42:00 Sunday ET

Warren Buffett shares his key insights into life, success, money, and interpersonal communication. Institutional money managers and retail investors ca