2019-11-19 09:33:00 Tue ET
federal reserve monetary policy treasury dollar employment inflation interest rate exchange rate macrofinance recession systemic risk economic growth central bank fomc greenback forward guidance euro capital global financial cycle credit cycle yield curve
American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth. Despite a sharp slowdown in U.S. services and utilities, non-farm payrolls increase by 135,000-to-145,000 jobs on average per month in the current fiscal year 2019-2020. As of 2019Q4, The Economist and Reuters forecast higher U.S. non-farm payrolls in the next few quarters. As the U.S. unemployment rate tends to rise ahead of an economic recession, the recent decline in American unemployment pushes out the timeline for any potential recession into late-2020.
U.S. core inflation remain below the 2% target, and wage growth gradually declines from 3.2% to 2.9% per year. The U.S. labor market grows sustainably in the early resolution of uncertainty around the Sino-American trade conflict, Federal Reserve monetary policy reversal, Treasury fiscal stimulus, and asset price normalization for oil, gold, and the greenback etc. Several stock market analysts and investment bankers expect the U.S. economy to grow at 2%-3% per annum in 2019-2020. The reasonable real GDP momentum accords with the main stock market investment thesis that the Trump tax cuts help finance the current economic boom. U.S. fiscal stimulus hence contributes to greater economic growth, domestic job creation, and capital investment.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-03-17 09:35:00 Saturday ET

Facebook faces a major data breach by Cambridge Analytica that has harvested private information from more than 50 million Facebook users. In a Facebook pos
2023-10-07 10:24:00 Saturday ET

Thomas Philippon draws attention to greater antitrust scrutiny in light of the rise of market power and its economic ripple effects. Thomas Philippon (20
2019-05-21 12:37:00 Tuesday ET

Chicago finance professor Raghuram Rajan shows that free markets need populist support against an unholy alliance of private-sector and state elites. When a
2023-01-09 10:31:00 Monday ET

Response to USPTO fintech patent protection As of early-January 2023, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has approved our U.S. utility patent
2019-08-20 07:33:00 Tuesday ET

The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer. Britain appoints former London mayor and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson as the prime minis
2018-01-10 08:40:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump considers imposing retaliatory economic sanctions on Chinese products and services in direct response to China's theft and infringement