U.S. automobile and real estate sales decline despite higher consumer confidence and low unemployment as of October 2018.
Fiona Sydney

2018-10-27 09:34:00 Sat ET

U.S. automobile and real estate sales decline despite higher consumer confidence and low unemployment as of October 2018. This slowdown arises from the current U.S. interest rate hike that helps wean the economy off near-zero rates. High costs of capital squeeze the automobile and real estate industries after the prior decade of monetary stimulus. The most expensive U.S. consumer purchases are cars and houses, and these consumer industries are quite sensitive to the cyclical ebbs and flows of credit supply expansion. Recent U.S. mortgage rates reach 5% for the first time since 2011, and thus new home sales tumble 5.5% in 2018Q3 to the lowest level in about 2 years.

Residential home sale declines are double-digits and quite severe in the northeast and west U.S. states. In light of higher mortgage rates and home prices, financial economists start to consider rental properties more cost-effective than residential home purchases. Meanwhile, most Case-Shiller home price indices begin to show the current trend that home price gains decelerate from March 2018 to September 2018. Wall Street seems to impose hefty penalties on automobile and real estate stocks. Many homebuilder ETFs such as XHB, TOL, and KBH have plunged about 30% year-to-date since January 2018. Also, several automobile stocks from Ford to GM show 25%+ price declines in the same time frame. The latter auto industry further suffers higher production costs due to Trump tariffs. These bearish traces suggest the inconvenient truth that the U.S. economy may have gone beyond the peak of real business cycles with low inflation and robust employment and capital investment growth.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More
The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer.
Apple Boston

2019-08-20 07:33:00 Tuesday ET

The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer.

The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer. Britain appoints former London mayor and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson as the prime minis

+See More
Amazon acquires an Internet pharmacy PillPack in order to better compete with Walgreens and many other drug distributors.
Peter Prince

2018-06-29 11:41:00 Friday ET

Amazon acquires an Internet pharmacy PillPack in order to better compete with Walgreens and many other drug distributors.

Amazon acquires an Internet pharmacy PillPack in order to better compete with Walgreens Boots Alliance, CVS Health, Rite Aid, and many other drug distributo

+See More
The Trump fiscal trifecta of lower income taxation, new infrastructure, and deregulation has yet to run its natural course.
Becky Berkman

2017-04-25 06:35:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump fiscal trifecta of lower income taxation, new infrastructure, and deregulation has yet to run its natural course.

This nice and clear infographic visualization helps us better decipher the main memes and themes of President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office.

+See More
Carl Icahn mulls over steps to shake up the board of SandRidge Energy after it adopts a counter poison pill.
Jacob Miramar

2017-11-29 07:42:00 Wednesday ET

Carl Icahn mulls over steps to shake up the board of SandRidge Energy after it adopts a counter poison pill.

The octogenarian billionaire and activist investor Carl Icahn mulls over steps to shake up the board of SandRidge Energy after the oil-and-gas company adopt

+See More
Chinese trade delegation offers to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products to reach an interim trade deal with the Trump administration.
Peter Prince

2019-11-03 12:30:00 Sunday ET

Chinese trade delegation offers to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products to reach an interim trade deal with the Trump administration.

Chinese trade delegation offers to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products to reach an interim trade deal with the Trump administration. Chinese Vice

+See More
Global financial markets suffer as President Trump promises *fire and fury* in response North Korean nuclear ambitions.
Daisy Harvey

2017-08-07 09:39:00 Monday ET

Global financial markets suffer as President Trump promises *fire and fury* in response North Korean nuclear ambitions.

Global financial markets suffer as President Trump promises *fire and fury* in response to the recent report that North Korea has successfully miniaturized

+See More