2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2018-02-15 07:43:00 Thursday ET
Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk. FOMC members revise up the economic projections made at the Dece
2020-09-24 10:26:00 Thursday ET
Edge strategies help business leaders improve core products and services in a more cost-effective and less risky way. Alan Lewis and Dan McKone (2016)
2017-12-07 08:31:00 Thursday ET
Large multinational tech firms such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon can benefit much from the G.O.P. tax reform. A recent stock research r
2017-12-19 09:39:00 Tuesday ET
From Oprah Winfrey to Bill Gates, this infographic visualization summarizes the key habits and investment styles of highly successful entrepreneurs:
2020-11-01 11:21:00 Sunday ET
Artificial intelligence continues to push boundaries for several tech titans to sustain their central disruptive innovations, competitive moats, and first-m
2019-10-03 17:39:00 Thursday ET
President Trump indicates that he would consider an interim Sino-American trade deal in lieu of a full trade agreement. The Trump administration defers high