The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Fed Chair Jay Powell suggests that the recent surge in U.S. business debt poses moderate risks to the economy.

Laura Hermes

2019-06-05 10:34:00 Wednesday ET

Fed Chair Jay Powell suggests that the recent surge in U.S. business debt poses moderate risks to the economy.

Fed Chair Jay Powell suggests that the recent surge in U.S. business debt poses moderate risks to the economy. Many corporate treasuries now carry about 40%

+See More

Several feasible near-term reforms can substantially narrow the scope for global tax avoidance by closing information loopholes.

Apple Boston

2023-03-14 16:43:00 Tuesday ET

Several feasible near-term reforms can substantially narrow the scope for global tax avoidance by closing information loopholes.

Several feasible near-term reforms can substantially narrow the scope for global tax avoidance by closing information loopholes. Thomas Pogge and Krishen

+See More

David Colander and Craig Freedman argue that economics went wrong when there was no neoclassical firewall between economic theories and policy reforms.

Becky Berkman

2023-11-28 11:35:00 Tuesday ET

David Colander and Craig Freedman argue that economics went wrong when there was no neoclassical firewall between economic theories and policy reforms.

David Colander and Craig Freedman argue that economics went wrong when there was no neoclassical firewall between economic theories and policy reforms. D

+See More

Treasury bond yield curve inversion often signals the next economic recession in America.

Monica McNeil

2018-10-11 08:44:00 Thursday ET

Treasury bond yield curve inversion often signals the next economic recession in America.

Treasury bond yield curve inversion often signals the next economic recession in America. In fact, U.S. bond yield curve inversion correctly predicts the da

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market issues, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Daphne Basel

2019-05-30 16:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market issues, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube May 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of May 2019: (1) Our proprietary alp

+See More

Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in several ways.

Jonah Whanau

2017-06-21 05:36:00 Wednesday ET

Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in several ways.

In his latest Berkshire Hathaway annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in seve

+See More