2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-08-07 12:29:00 Monday ET
Oxford macro professor Stephen Nickell and his co-authors delve into the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the dual mandate of price stability
2019-06-21 13:33:00 Friday ET
Amazon and Google face more intense antitrust scrutiny. In recent times, Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission have reached an internal agreement
2017-05-25 08:35:00 Thursday ET
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on financial deregulation under the Trump administration. This financial deregulation seeks
2018-11-29 11:33:00 Thursday ET
A congressional division between Democrats and Republicans can cause ripple effects on Trump economic reforms. As Democrats have successfully flipped the Ho
2019-05-05 10:46:10 Sunday ET
This video collection shows the major features of our AYA fintech network platform for stock market investors: (1) AYA stock market content curation;&nbs
2023-08-31 10:22:00 Thursday ET
Government intervention remains a major influence over global trade, finance, and technology. Nowadays, many governments tend to eschew common ownership