2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2023-02-21 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Mark Granovetter follows the key principles of modern economic sociology to analyze social relations and economic phenomena. Mark Granovetter (2017) &
2017-12-14 12:41:00 Thursday ET

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.25% to 1.5% as FOMC members revise up their GDP estimate from 2% to 2.5
2019-01-04 11:41:00 Friday ET

Chinese President Xi JingPing calls President Trump to reach Sino-American trade conflict resolution. Xi sends a congratulatory message to mark 40 years sin
2019-12-30 11:28:00 Monday ET

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube December 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of December 2019: (1) The Trump adm
2019-05-07 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Trump team receives a 3.2% first-quarter GDP boost as Fed Chair Jay Powell halts the next interest rate hike in early-May 2019. This smooth upward econo
2023-02-07 08:26:00 Tuesday ET

Michel De Vroey delves into the global history of macroeconomic theories from real business cycles to persistent monetary effects. Michel De Vroey (2016)