The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

A physicist derives a mathematical formula for success.

Chanel Holden

2019-03-07 12:39:00 Thursday ET

A physicist derives a mathematical formula for success.

A physicist derives a mathematical formula that success equates the product of both personal quality and the potential value of a random idea. As a Northeas

+See More

Warren Buffett approves Berkshire Hathaway to implement new meaningful stock repurchases.

Dan Rochefort

2018-11-15 12:35:00 Thursday ET

Warren Buffett approves Berkshire Hathaway to implement new meaningful stock repurchases.

Warren Buffett approves Berkshire Hathaway to implement new meaningful stock repurchases. Buffett sends a positive signal to the stock market with the Berks

+See More

CNBC news anchor Becky Quick interviews Warren Buffett in early-2019.

James Campbell

2019-04-07 13:39:00 Sunday ET

CNBC news anchor Becky Quick interviews Warren Buffett in early-2019.

CNBC news anchor Becky Quick interviews Warren Buffett in early-2019. Buffett explains the fact that book value fluctuations are a metric that has lost rele

+See More

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.

Laura Hermes

2019-03-09 12:43:00 Saturday ET

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.

Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019. This tech unicorn allows users to pin-and-browse images through its social media app and website. Pintere

+See More

The new world order of trade helps accomplish non-economic policy goals such as national security and technological dominance.

Amy Hamilton

2024-01-31 14:33:00 Wednesday ET

The new world order of trade helps accomplish non-economic policy goals such as national security and technological dominance.

The new world order of trade helps accomplish non-economic policy goals such as national security and technological dominance. To the extent that freer

+See More

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold.

Jacob Miramar

2018-12-07 11:35:00 Friday ET

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints slower interest rate increases because the current rate is just below the neutral threshold. NYSE and NASDAQ share prices rebo

+See More