The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018.

John Fourier

2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET

The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

American exceptionalism often turns out to be the heuristic rule of thumb for better economic growth, low and stable inflation, full employment, and macro-financial stability.

Apple Boston

2026-07-01 11:29:00 Wednesday ET

American exceptionalism often turns out to be the heuristic rule of thumb for better economic growth, low and stable inflation, full employment, and macro-financial stability.

In recent years, higher American economic growth has been impressive both by historical standards and in comparison to the rest of the world. American excep

+See More

President-Elect Donald Trump wants Apple and its tech peers to consider better and greater high-tech job creation in America.

James Campbell

2017-01-03 03:26:00 Tuesday ET

President-Elect Donald Trump wants Apple and its tech peers to consider better and greater high-tech job creation in America.

President-Elect Donald Trump wants Apple and its tech peers to consider better and greater high-tech job creation in America. Apple has asked its primary

+See More

China allows its renminbi currency to slide below the psychologically important threshold of 7-yuan per U.S. dollar.

Charlene Vos

2019-09-13 10:37:00 Friday ET

China allows its renminbi currency to slide below the psychologically important threshold of 7-yuan per U.S. dollar.

China allows its renminbi currency to slide below the key psychologically important threshold of 7-yuan per U.S. dollar. A currency dispute between the U.S.

+See More

What are the best online stock market investment tools?

Amy Hamilton

2021-07-07 05:22:00 Wednesday ET

What are the best online stock market investment tools?

What are the best online stock market investment tools? Stock trading has seen an explosion since the start of the pandemic. As people lost their jobs an

+See More

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

Dan Rochefort

2019-09-19 15:30:00 Thursday ET

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession.

U.S. yield curve inversion can be a sign but not a root cause of the next economic recession. Treasury yield curve inversion helps predict each of the U.S.

+See More

In the modern monetary system, each CBDC helps anchor public trust in money in support of economic welfare, especially in a new cashless society.

Joseph Corr

2024-07-31 09:28:00 Wednesday ET

In the modern monetary system, each CBDC helps anchor public trust in money in support of economic welfare, especially in a new cashless society.

In the modern monetary system, each new CBDC helps anchor public trust in money in support of economic welfare, especially in a cashless society. In our

+See More