2018-06-01 07:30:00 Fri ET
treasury deficit debt employment inflation interest rate macrofinance fiscal stimulus economic growth fiscal budget public finance treasury bond treasury yield sovereign debt sovereign wealth fund tax cuts government expenditures
The U.S. federal government debt has risen from less than 40% of total GDP about a decade ago to 78% as of May 2018. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that this ratio will surge to 96% in 2028. Although many blame the Trump tax cuts as the key root cause, the increases in health care and retirement benefits suggest a different real reason for U.S. deficit severity.
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein attributes the recent rise of U.S. budget deficit from 4% to 5% of total GDP to increases in Medicare and social security retirement benefits for middle-class older Americans. These increases in core health care and retirement benefits account for about 2.7% of total GDP. The neoclassical Sargent-Wallace thesis suggests that the central bank cannot finance incessant increases in core deficits with government bond issuance regardless of money supply growth. This money supply expansion would lead to inexorable inflationary pressures that defeat the dual mandate of both maximum employment and price stability in the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Inflation serves as a seigniorage tax that would in turn dampen real macroeconomic variates such as household consumption, capital investment, labor supply, and total economic output. In light of this ripple effect on sustainable financial market growth and prosperity, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.
2021-08-01 07:26:00 Sunday ET
The Biden administration launches economic reforms in fiscal and monetary stimulus, global trade, finance, and technology. President Joe Biden proposes s
2025-02-28 11:31:00 Friday ET
AYA fintech network platform provides proprietary alpha stock signals and personal finance tools for stock market investors. As of September 2025, we hav
2018-01-05 07:37:00 Friday ET
Warren Buffett cleverly points out that American children will not only be better off than their parents, but the former will also enjoy higher living stand
2023-05-31 11:27:00 Wednesday ET
What are the top global risks in trade, finance, and technology? In this macro report, we focus on the current global risks from inflation and growth con
2022-03-25 09:34:00 Friday ET
Corporate cash management The empirical corporate finance literature suggests four primary motives for firms to hold cash. These motives include the tra
2025-09-21 12:32:00 Sunday ET
Stock Synopsis: With a new Python program, we use, adapt, apply, and leverage each of the mainstream Gemini Gen AI models to conduct this comprehensive fund