The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Fri ET

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past decade. Good times breed complacency. As the Trump administration rolls back key Dodd-Frank rules and regulations, the Federal Reserve has yet to raise countercyclical capital buffers for most banks. When prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of financial risk.

The Economist points out that the current news is both good and bad. The good news suggests that most U.S. large banks finance themselves with proportionately more equity. The average bank equity capital ratio increases substantially from 3% to double digits in the decade after the Lehman financial meltdown.

However, the bad news suggests that most U.S. households, firms, and financial intermediaries react slowly to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers shares his ingenious insight that the U.S. economy suffers secular stagnation, government debt, and inflation in the recent decade after the global financial crisis. In light of gradual greenback appreciation and national populism, Harvard chair professor Kenneth Rogoff indicates that the Trump stock market rally may be the calm before the next financial storm.

Despite hefty Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, the U.S. economy operates near full employment with high inflation, currency, and interest rate risks. This trifecta poses a red alert to the Trump administration and its advisory troika (National Economic Council, Federal Reserve, and Treasury).

Both the U.S. Treasury and National Economic Council favor imposing draconian tariffs on at least $200 trillion Chinese imports. This trade tactic aims to help curtail bilateral trade deficits with China. These tariffs may affect Canada, Europe, Mexico, and Japan.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike (with at least one rate increase in September 2018 and another in December 2018). This hawkish interest rate hike is likely to continue until late-2019. All of these fiscal and monetary measures can help contain the high-risk trifecta of inflation, fiscal debt and deficit, and secular stagnation.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation.

Monica McNeil

2020-11-17 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation.

Management consultants can build sustainable trust-driven client relations through the accelerant curve of business value creation. Alan Weiss (2016)

+See More

President Trump threatens to shut down the government if Democrats refuse to help approve $5 billion border wall finance.

Joseph Corr

2018-12-18 10:38:00 Tuesday ET

President Trump threatens to shut down the government if Democrats refuse to help approve $5 billion border wall finance.

President Trump threatens to shut down the U.S. government in 2019 if Democrats refuse to help approve $5 billion public finance for the southern border wal

+See More

The global cloud expands what can be made digitally viable from electric vehicles (EV) and virtual reality (VR) headsets to artificial intelligence (AI) and the metaverse.

Chanel Holden

2025-04-30 08:27:00 Wednesday ET

The global cloud expands what can be made digitally viable from electric vehicles (EV) and virtual reality (VR) headsets to artificial intelligence (AI) and the metaverse.

The multiple layers of the world cloud Internet help expand what can be made digitally viable from electric vehicles (EV) and virtual reality (VR) headsets

+See More

President Trump criticizes the potential media merger between AT&T and Time Warner.

Chanel Holden

2017-11-05 09:45:00 Sunday ET

President Trump criticizes the potential media merger between AT&T and Time Warner.

President Trump criticizes the potential media merger between AT&T and Time Warner, the latter of which owns the anti-Trump media network CNN. President

+See More

Central banks in India, Thailand, and New Zealand lower their interest rates in response to the Federal Reserve rate cut.

Daisy Harvey

2019-09-11 09:31:00 Wednesday ET

Central banks in India, Thailand, and New Zealand lower their interest rates in response to the Federal Reserve rate cut.

Central banks in India, Thailand, and New Zealand lower their interest rates in a defensive response to the Federal Reserve recent rate cut. The central ban

+See More

Goldman Sachs follows the timeless business principles and best practices in financial market design and investment management.

Chanel Holden

2020-02-26 09:30:00 Wednesday ET

Goldman Sachs follows the timeless business principles and best practices in financial market design and investment management.

Goldman Sachs follows the timeless business principles and best practices in financial market design and investment management. William Cohan (2011) M

+See More