The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Fri ET

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past decade. Good times breed complacency. As the Trump administration rolls back key Dodd-Frank rules and regulations, the Federal Reserve has yet to raise countercyclical capital buffers for most banks. When prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of financial risk.

The Economist points out that the current news is both good and bad. The good news suggests that most U.S. large banks finance themselves with proportionately more equity. The average bank equity capital ratio increases substantially from 3% to double digits in the decade after the Lehman financial meltdown.

However, the bad news suggests that most U.S. households, firms, and financial intermediaries react slowly to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers shares his ingenious insight that the U.S. economy suffers secular stagnation, government debt, and inflation in the recent decade after the global financial crisis. In light of gradual greenback appreciation and national populism, Harvard chair professor Kenneth Rogoff indicates that the Trump stock market rally may be the calm before the next financial storm.

Despite hefty Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, the U.S. economy operates near full employment with high inflation, currency, and interest rate risks. This trifecta poses a red alert to the Trump administration and its advisory troika (National Economic Council, Federal Reserve, and Treasury).

Both the U.S. Treasury and National Economic Council favor imposing draconian tariffs on at least $200 trillion Chinese imports. This trade tactic aims to help curtail bilateral trade deficits with China. These tariffs may affect Canada, Europe, Mexico, and Japan.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike (with at least one rate increase in September 2018 and another in December 2018). This hawkish interest rate hike is likely to continue until late-2019. All of these fiscal and monetary measures can help contain the high-risk trifecta of inflation, fiscal debt and deficit, and secular stagnation.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

China, Russia, France, Germany, and Japan may dethrone the petrodollar.

Jacob Miramar

2018-07-01 08:34:00 Sunday ET

China, Russia, France, Germany, and Japan may dethrone the petrodollar.

Are China and Russia etc gonna dethrone the petrodollar? Over the years, China, Russia, France, Germany, and Japan have made numerous attempts to use their

+See More

State, society, and the narrow corridor to liberty

Joseph Corr

2023-09-28 08:26:00 Thursday ET

State, society, and the narrow corridor to liberty

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson show a constant economic tussle between society and the state in the hot pursuit of liberty. Daron Acemoglu and James R

+See More

Geopolitical alignment often reshapes and reinforces asset market fragmentation in the broader context of financial deglobalization.

Olivia London

2025-07-01 13:35:00 Tuesday ET

Geopolitical alignment often reshapes and reinforces asset market fragmentation in the broader context of financial deglobalization.

In recent times, financial deglobalization and asset market fragmentation can cause profound public policy implications for trade, finance, and technology w

+See More

The Chinese new star board launches for tech firms to list at home.

Daphne Basel

2019-07-09 15:14:00 Tuesday ET

The Chinese new star board launches for tech firms to list at home.

The Chinese new star board launches for tech firms to list at home. The Nasdaq-equivalent new star board serves as a key avenue for Chinese tech companies t

+See More

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce.

Dan Rochefort

2019-07-21 09:37:00 Sunday ET

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce.

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency Libra as a fresh medium of exchange for e-commerce. Libra will be available to all the 2 billion active users on Fa

+See More

The SEC sues Elon Musk for his August 2018 tweet that he has secured external finance to convert Tesla into a private company.

Amy Hamilton

2018-09-29 12:39:00 Saturday ET

The SEC sues Elon Musk for his August 2018 tweet that he has secured external finance to convert Tesla into a private company.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (S.E.C.) sues Elon Musk for his August 2018 tweet that he has secured external finance to convert Tesla into a privat

+See More