The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Fri ET

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past decade. Good times breed complacency. As the Trump administration rolls back key Dodd-Frank rules and regulations, the Federal Reserve has yet to raise countercyclical capital buffers for most banks. When prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of financial risk.

The Economist points out that the current news is both good and bad. The good news suggests that most U.S. large banks finance themselves with proportionately more equity. The average bank equity capital ratio increases substantially from 3% to double digits in the decade after the Lehman financial meltdown.

However, the bad news suggests that most U.S. households, firms, and financial intermediaries react slowly to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers shares his ingenious insight that the U.S. economy suffers secular stagnation, government debt, and inflation in the recent decade after the global financial crisis. In light of gradual greenback appreciation and national populism, Harvard chair professor Kenneth Rogoff indicates that the Trump stock market rally may be the calm before the next financial storm.

Despite hefty Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, the U.S. economy operates near full employment with high inflation, currency, and interest rate risks. This trifecta poses a red alert to the Trump administration and its advisory troika (National Economic Council, Federal Reserve, and Treasury).

Both the U.S. Treasury and National Economic Council favor imposing draconian tariffs on at least $200 trillion Chinese imports. This trade tactic aims to help curtail bilateral trade deficits with China. These tariffs may affect Canada, Europe, Mexico, and Japan.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike (with at least one rate increase in September 2018 and another in December 2018). This hawkish interest rate hike is likely to continue until late-2019. All of these fiscal and monetary measures can help contain the high-risk trifecta of inflation, fiscal debt and deficit, and secular stagnation.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends.

Amy Hamilton

2020-02-12 09:31:00 Wednesday ET

Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends.

Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends. David Kirkpatrick (2011) T

+See More

Trump imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum in a trade war with some exemptions for Canada and Mexico.

Olivia London

2018-03-01 07:35:00 Thursday ET

Trump imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum in a trade war with some exemptions for Canada and Mexico.

Trump imposes high tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) in a new trade war with subsequent exemptions for Canada and Mexico. The Trump administration&#

+See More

Conservative Party wins the British parliamentary majority in the general election with hefty British pound appreciation.

Jonah Whanau

2020-01-08 08:25:00 Wednesday ET

Conservative Party wins the British parliamentary majority in the general election with hefty British pound appreciation.

Conservative Party wins the British parliamentary majority in the general election with hefty British pound appreciation. In response to this general electi

+See More

Stock Synopsis: Top China Internet companies continue to enjoy global reach, business model monetization, and new improvements in sales and profits.

Dan Rochefort

2024-10-27 07:56:01 Sunday ET

Stock Synopsis: Top China Internet companies continue to enjoy global reach, business model monetization, and new improvements in sales and profits.

Stock Synopsis: China Internet tech titans continue to grow amid greater competition. We launch our unique coverage of top 25 China Internet stocks. In t

+See More

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit.

Joseph Corr

2019-08-04 08:26:00 Sunday ET

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit.

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange reconciliatory gestures at the G20 summit in Japan.

+See More

Eric Posner and Glen Weyl propose radical reforms to resolve key market design problems for better democracy and globalization.

Chanel Holden

2023-02-14 09:31:00 Tuesday ET

Eric Posner and Glen Weyl propose radical reforms to resolve key market design problems for better democracy and globalization.

Eric Posner and Glen Weyl propose radical reforms to resolve key market design problems for better democracy and globalization. Eric Posner and Glen Weyl

+See More