The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Fri ET

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past decade. Good times breed complacency. As the Trump administration rolls back key Dodd-Frank rules and regulations, the Federal Reserve has yet to raise countercyclical capital buffers for most banks. When prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of financial risk.

The Economist points out that the current news is both good and bad. The good news suggests that most U.S. large banks finance themselves with proportionately more equity. The average bank equity capital ratio increases substantially from 3% to double digits in the decade after the Lehman financial meltdown.

However, the bad news suggests that most U.S. households, firms, and financial intermediaries react slowly to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers shares his ingenious insight that the U.S. economy suffers secular stagnation, government debt, and inflation in the recent decade after the global financial crisis. In light of gradual greenback appreciation and national populism, Harvard chair professor Kenneth Rogoff indicates that the Trump stock market rally may be the calm before the next financial storm.

Despite hefty Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, the U.S. economy operates near full employment with high inflation, currency, and interest rate risks. This trifecta poses a red alert to the Trump administration and its advisory troika (National Economic Council, Federal Reserve, and Treasury).

Both the U.S. Treasury and National Economic Council favor imposing draconian tariffs on at least $200 trillion Chinese imports. This trade tactic aims to help curtail bilateral trade deficits with China. These tariffs may affect Canada, Europe, Mexico, and Japan.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike (with at least one rate increase in September 2018 and another in December 2018). This hawkish interest rate hike is likely to continue until late-2019. All of these fiscal and monetary measures can help contain the high-risk trifecta of inflation, fiscal debt and deficit, and secular stagnation.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on U.S. financial deregulation.

Peter Prince

2017-05-25 08:35:00 Thursday ET

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on U.S. financial deregulation.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on financial deregulation under the Trump administration. This financial deregulation seeks

+See More

Agile lean enterprises strive to design radical business models to remain competitive in the face of nimble startups and megatrends.

Joseph Corr

2020-10-13 08:27:00 Tuesday ET

Agile lean enterprises strive to design radical business models to remain competitive in the face of nimble startups and megatrends.

Agile lean enterprises strive to design radical business models to remain competitive in the face of nimble startups and megatrends. Carsten Linz, Gunter

+See More

President Trump considers imposing retaliatory economic sanctions on Chinese products.

Peter Prince

2018-01-10 08:40:00 Wednesday ET

President Trump considers imposing retaliatory economic sanctions on Chinese products.

President Trump considers imposing retaliatory economic sanctions on Chinese products and services in direct response to China's theft and infringement

+See More

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn.

Monica McNeil

2019-09-17 08:33:00 Tuesday ET

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn.

Global stock market investors foresee the harbinger of a major economic downturn. Many stock market investors become anxious due to negative term spreads an

+See More

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate again in mid-2018 in response to 2% inflation and wage growth.

John Fourier

2018-07-09 09:39:00 Monday ET

Federal Reserve raises the interest rate again in mid-2018 in response to 2% inflation and wage growth.

The Federal Reserve raises the interest rate again in mid-2018 in response to 2% inflation and wage growth. The current neutral interest rate hike neither b

+See More

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-02-28 20:44:00 Thursday ET

AYA Analytica podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.

AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube February 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of February 2019: (1) our proprieta

+See More