The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Fri ET

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past decade. Good times breed complacency. As the Trump administration rolls back key Dodd-Frank rules and regulations, the Federal Reserve has yet to raise countercyclical capital buffers for most banks. When prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of financial risk.

The Economist points out that the current news is both good and bad. The good news suggests that most U.S. large banks finance themselves with proportionately more equity. The average bank equity capital ratio increases substantially from 3% to double digits in the decade after the Lehman financial meltdown.

However, the bad news suggests that most U.S. households, firms, and financial intermediaries react slowly to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers shares his ingenious insight that the U.S. economy suffers secular stagnation, government debt, and inflation in the recent decade after the global financial crisis. In light of gradual greenback appreciation and national populism, Harvard chair professor Kenneth Rogoff indicates that the Trump stock market rally may be the calm before the next financial storm.

Despite hefty Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, the U.S. economy operates near full employment with high inflation, currency, and interest rate risks. This trifecta poses a red alert to the Trump administration and its advisory troika (National Economic Council, Federal Reserve, and Treasury).

Both the U.S. Treasury and National Economic Council favor imposing draconian tariffs on at least $200 trillion Chinese imports. This trade tactic aims to help curtail bilateral trade deficits with China. These tariffs may affect Canada, Europe, Mexico, and Japan.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike (with at least one rate increase in September 2018 and another in December 2018). This hawkish interest rate hike is likely to continue until late-2019. All of these fiscal and monetary measures can help contain the high-risk trifecta of inflation, fiscal debt and deficit, and secular stagnation.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

The Federal Reserve System conducts monetary policy decisions, interest rate adjustments, and inter-bank payment operations.

Dan Rochefort

2023-03-28 11:30:00 Tuesday ET

The Federal Reserve System conducts monetary policy decisions, interest rate adjustments, and inter-bank payment operations.

The Federal Reserve System conducts monetary policy decisions, interest rate adjustments, and inter-bank payment operations. Peter Conti-Brown (2017)

+See More

Uniform field theory of corporate finance

Peter Prince

2022-11-25 09:29:00 Friday ET

Uniform field theory of corporate finance

Uniform field theory of corporate finance While the agency and precautionary-motive stories are complementary, these stories can be nested as special cas

+See More

Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker releases his memoir, talks about American public governance, and worries about plutocracy in America.

Apple Boston

2018-10-23 12:36:00 Tuesday ET

Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker releases his memoir, talks about American public governance, and worries about plutocracy in America.

Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker releases his memoir, talks about American public governance, and worries about plutocracy in America. Volcker suggests that pu

+See More

Our fun podcasts deep-dive into the current global trends, topics, and issues in support of better stock market investment decisions.

Daphne Basel

2026-02-14 11:26:00 Saturday ET

Our fun podcasts deep-dive into the current global trends, topics, and issues in support of better stock market investment decisions.

Our AYA fun podcasts deep-dive into the current global trends, topics, and issues in macro finance, political economy, public policy, strategic management,

+See More

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history.

Jacob Miramar

2019-01-10 17:31:00 Thursday ET

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history.

The recent Bristol-Myers Squibb acquisition of American Celgene is the $90 billion biggest biotech deal in history. The resultant biopharma goliath would be

+See More

Agile lean enterprises break down organizational silos to promote smart collaboration for better profitability and customer loyalty.

Laura Hermes

2020-11-03 08:30:00 Tuesday ET

Agile lean enterprises break down organizational silos to promote smart collaboration for better profitability and customer loyalty.

Agile lean enterprises break down organizational silos to promote smart collaboration for better profitability and customer loyalty. Heidi Gardner (2017

+See More