The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Fri ET

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past decade. Good times breed complacency. As the Trump administration rolls back key Dodd-Frank rules and regulations, the Federal Reserve has yet to raise countercyclical capital buffers for most banks. When prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of financial risk.

The Economist points out that the current news is both good and bad. The good news suggests that most U.S. large banks finance themselves with proportionately more equity. The average bank equity capital ratio increases substantially from 3% to double digits in the decade after the Lehman financial meltdown.

However, the bad news suggests that most U.S. households, firms, and financial intermediaries react slowly to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers shares his ingenious insight that the U.S. economy suffers secular stagnation, government debt, and inflation in the recent decade after the global financial crisis. In light of gradual greenback appreciation and national populism, Harvard chair professor Kenneth Rogoff indicates that the Trump stock market rally may be the calm before the next financial storm.

Despite hefty Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, the U.S. economy operates near full employment with high inflation, currency, and interest rate risks. This trifecta poses a red alert to the Trump administration and its advisory troika (National Economic Council, Federal Reserve, and Treasury).

Both the U.S. Treasury and National Economic Council favor imposing draconian tariffs on at least $200 trillion Chinese imports. This trade tactic aims to help curtail bilateral trade deficits with China. These tariffs may affect Canada, Europe, Mexico, and Japan.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike (with at least one rate increase in September 2018 and another in December 2018). This hawkish interest rate hike is likely to continue until late-2019. All of these fiscal and monetary measures can help contain the high-risk trifecta of inflation, fiscal debt and deficit, and secular stagnation.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development.

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-01-13 12:37:00 Sunday ET

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development.

We need crowdfunds to support our next responsive web design and iOS and Android app development. Upon successful campaign completion, we will provide an eb

+See More

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).

Becky Berkman

2019-03-21 12:33:00 Thursday ET

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).

Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up key tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA). These tech titans have become

+See More

AYA free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019

Andy Yeh Alpha

2019-03-31 11:40:00 Sunday ET

AYA free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019

AYA Analytica free finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube March 2019 In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of March 2019: (1) Sargent-Wallac

+See More

U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, and Russia voice their concern at the WTO.

James Campbell

2018-07-05 13:40:00 Thursday ET

U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, and Russia voice their concern at the WTO.

U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, and Russia voice their concern at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in ligh

+See More

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff analyze long-run crisis data to find the root causes of financial crises for better bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization.

Laura Hermes

2023-06-28 09:29:00 Wednesday ET

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff analyze long-run crisis data to find the root causes of financial crises for better bank capital regulation and asset market stabilization.

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff delve into several centuries of cross-country crisis data to find the key root causes of financial crises for asset marke

+See More

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk.

Dan Rochefort

2018-02-15 07:43:00 Thursday ET

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk.

Fed minutes reflect gradual interest rate normalization in response to high inflation risk. FOMC members revise up the economic projections made at the Dece

+See More