The Economist suggests that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Becky Berkman

2018-09-07 07:33:00 Fri ET

The Economist re-evaluates the realistic scenario that the world has learned few lessons of the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 over the past decade. Good times breed complacency. As the Trump administration rolls back key Dodd-Frank rules and regulations, the Federal Reserve has yet to raise countercyclical capital buffers for most banks. When prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of financial risk.

The Economist points out that the current news is both good and bad. The good news suggests that most U.S. large banks finance themselves with proportionately more equity. The average bank equity capital ratio increases substantially from 3% to double digits in the decade after the Lehman financial meltdown.

However, the bad news suggests that most U.S. households, firms, and financial intermediaries react slowly to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from 2008 to 2009.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers shares his ingenious insight that the U.S. economy suffers secular stagnation, government debt, and inflation in the recent decade after the global financial crisis. In light of gradual greenback appreciation and national populism, Harvard chair professor Kenneth Rogoff indicates that the Trump stock market rally may be the calm before the next financial storm.

Despite hefty Trump tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures, the U.S. economy operates near full employment with high inflation, currency, and interest rate risks. This trifecta poses a red alert to the Trump administration and its advisory troika (National Economic Council, Federal Reserve, and Treasury).

Both the U.S. Treasury and National Economic Council favor imposing draconian tariffs on at least $200 trillion Chinese imports. This trade tactic aims to help curtail bilateral trade deficits with China. These tariffs may affect Canada, Europe, Mexico, and Japan.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve accelerates the current interest rate hike (with at least one rate increase in September 2018 and another in December 2018). This hawkish interest rate hike is likely to continue until late-2019. All of these fiscal and monetary measures can help contain the high-risk trifecta of inflation, fiscal debt and deficit, and secular stagnation.

 


If any of our AYA Analytica financial health memos (FHM), blog posts, ebooks, newsletters, and notifications etc, or any other form of online content curation, involves potential copyright concerns, please feel free to contact us at service@ayafintech.network so that we can remove relevant content in response to any such request within a reasonable time frame.

Blog+More

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation.

Rose Prince

2018-06-21 10:42:00 Thursday ET

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation.

Harley Davidson plans to move its major production for European customers out of America due to European Union tariff retaliation. European Union retaliator

+See More

What are the mainstream technological advances in the global auto industry?

Chanel Holden

2024-04-30 09:30:00 Tuesday ET

What are the mainstream technological advances in the global auto industry?

With clean and green energy resources and electric vehicles, the global auto industry now navigates at a newer and faster pace. Both BYD and Tesla have

+See More

CNBC All-America Economic Survey indicates 54% majority approval of the Trump team's supply-side economic reform.

Jonah Whanau

2018-07-11 09:39:00 Wednesday ET

CNBC All-America Economic Survey indicates 54% majority approval of the Trump team's supply-side economic reform.

In recent times, the Trump administration sees the sweet state of U.S. economic expansion as of early-July 2018. The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey

+See More

MIT professor and co-author Daron Acemoglu suggests that economic prosperity comes from high-wage job creation.

Fiona Sydney

2019-05-19 19:31:00 Sunday ET

MIT professor and co-author Daron Acemoglu suggests that economic prosperity comes from high-wage job creation.

MIT professor and co-author Daron Acemoglu suggests that economic prosperity comes from high-wage job creation. Progressive tax redistribution cannot achiev

+See More

President Trump blames the Federal Reserve for its *crazy tight* interest rate hike.

Becky Berkman

2018-10-13 10:44:00 Saturday ET

President Trump blames the Federal Reserve for its *crazy tight* interest rate hike.

Dow Jones tumbles 3% or 831 points while NASDAQ tanks 4%, and this negative investor sentiment rips through most European and Asian stock markets in early-O

+See More

Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends.

Amy Hamilton

2020-02-12 09:31:00 Wednesday ET

Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends.

Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook as a social network platform to help empower global connections among family and friends. David Kirkpatrick (2011) T

+See More