Stock Synopsis: High-speed 5G broadband and mobile cloud telecommunication

Charlene Vos

2024-04-02 04:45:41 Tue ET

Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg

Stock Synopsis: High-speed 5G broadband and mobile cloud telecommunication

In the U.S. telecom industry for high-speed Internet connections and mobile cloud services, the most important competitive advantage emerges from efficient network management and device intelligence. This device intelligence shines fresh light on U.S. consumer preferences, especially when mobile device usage reflects the pervasive patterns of the American online lifestyle. Many legacy solutions use minimal mobile device identification methods, and these methods cannot adequately identify operating systems, video-streaming capabilities, music and audio podcasts, and many other online features and functions. Further, these methods cannot empower users with accessible ways to manage their home networks for high-speed Internet connections and mobile cloud services.

Among the 3 major U.S. telecom titans AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, their home users now have access to new methods for mobile device identification. These new methods can allow each major telecom network to identify operating systems, mobile devices, video-streaming platforms (such as Netflix, Disney+, HBO, YouTube, and so forth), music channels, podcasts, and many other high-speed Internet features and functions with no or minimal personal data. All of this device intelligence allows the telecom network to better allocate broadband traffic across the full spectrum during both peak hours and off-peak hours. As a result, the telecom operator can provide the most reliable home coverage guarantees on the basis of accurate device intelligence for better network management. In addition, this device intelligence also creates opportunities for each major telecom operator to prevent malicious online activities such as IP camera hacks, botnets, or even distributive denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. AI solutions further help identify mobile devices through several metadata points. Each telecom operator maintains a complete granular view of 95% of all the mobile devices available on the broadband network within each 24-hour time window. For the major high-speed telecom titans and other smaller rivals, this AI-driven network management technology has become the new normal competitive advantage across the wider spectrum of high-speed broadband telecom services.

A recent Deloitte survey shows that the average U.S. household already has at least 11 5G-connective devices. These mobile devices span smartphones, TVs, computers (both tablets and laptops), infotainment screens and dashboards, cameras, video game consoles, alarm clocks, virtual reality (VR) headsets, robot vacuum cleaners, washers, heaters, refrigerators, air conditioners, and so forth. In this positive light, each major telecom titan now faces broad demands for efficient network management and device intelligence. Examples of these AI solutions span Microsoft Defender, Azure Sphere, Google Cloud, FortiNAC, CUJO AI, AWS Device Defender, McAfee AI Control, and so on. These AI solutions empower each central telecom titan to sustain efficient network management across the complete spectrum of 5G broadband services.

 

The major telecom titans AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile continue to dominate the U.S. market for high-speed broadband Internet connections and online video-streaming services.

As of early-2024, the 3 major U.S. telecom titans AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile provide each U.S. household the baseline package of 300MB per second (mbps) high-speed broadband Internet connections with cable and/or satellite TV. Above this baseline, the better packages offer 500mbps and even 1000mbps high-speed broadband Internet connections. The retail prices for these baseline and better packages usually range between $35 to $95 per month in North America, many western allies such as Britain, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, as well as some Asian markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan.

In recent years, wireless access leads U.S. telecom market share gains as fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) continues to acquire greater market shares across the 3 major telecom titans AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. We can expect to see the long prevalent industry trend that the major U.S. telecom network orchestrators (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Altice, Charter, and Comcast) generate more than 987,000 high-speed broadband additions each quarter in the next few years. We believe the U.S. cable market share is likely to decrease sequentially to a 5-year low at 71% in increments of 80 basis points per month. The vast majority of U.S. broadband additions are likely to arise from wireless access with about 95% market share penetration. FTTH would represent 40% of U.S. broadband additions, cable no more than 2%, and Telco legacy access –37% respectively. Therefore, we expect wireless access and FTTH to garner greater market shares, or more than 95% of U.S. broadband additions, especially when the vast majority of Telco legacy users now switch to the more viable wireless access and FTTH broadband options in the longer run. Over the next decade, we can expect the average U.S. household to opt for the better broadband packages of 500mbps to 1000mbps, or the upper half of the broader retail prices from $75 to $95 per month. In this context, cable broadband growth still continues to struggle with substantially fewer additions due to a more competitive landscape. In the longer run, we can expect wireless access and FTTH to completely crowd out both cable and Telco legacy access in America.

In terms of high-speed broadband cable and satellite TV services, we can expect the 3 major U.S. telecom titans AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile to reallocate the vast bulk of telecom traffic to focus on the online video-streaming services with at least 100 million subscribers. These services include Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime, Baidu iQiyi, Tencent Video, and YouTube. For better economies of scale, these major service providers offer original contents to attract the vast bulk of network traffic across the complete spectrum of U.S. high-speed broadband. In the next tier, the online video-streaming services with 50 million to 100 million subscribers include Discovery+, Alibaba Youku, Paramount+, and Apple TV. In the longer run, our bold prediction is that the smaller rivals with 10 million to 50 million subscribers may unfortunately become the likely acquisition targets for Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime, and YouTube etc. U.S. viewers would benefit significantly from this intense competition among the mainstream video-streaming service providers. Through further consolidation in the form of mergers and acquisitions, many of the long prevalent video-streaming service providers would be able to offer better original contents in due course.

 

We expect to see some moderation in broadband additions for wireless access and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH); yet, the overall subscriber growth should remain strong and healthy.

We can estimate the U.S. wireless access industry to generate at least 2.6 million post-pay smartphone additions each quarter in the next few years. Although we think wireless access and FTTH subscriber growth may moderate due to pervasive iPhone shortages, lockdowns, and worker disputes at some of Apple’s major factories in China during the holiday season, we can expect both wireless access and FTTH to completely dominate the U.S. broadband telecom industry in the longer run. The latest iPhone 15 models (iPhone 15, Pro, Max, and Plus) are likely to generate greater gross subscriber additions with substantially lower churn. This widespread industry trend tends to benefit wireless access and FTTH to the detriment of many other smaller rivals and market-share takers.

From early-2024 onwards, we can expect to see a great moderation from 9 million post-pay smartphone subscriber additions down to 7.7 million additions each year. This dramatic 15% decline reflects the current concentration in the U.S. market for broadband telecom services. After all, we remain optimistic about the current growth outlook for U.S. post-pay smartphone subscriber additions, as this crucial metric persists well above the 2% U.S. population growth per annum.

We believe the broad demand for wireless 5G connectivity is relatively inelastic. Specifically, each 10-percentage increase in the retail price for wireless 5G connectivity would likely lead to the resultant less-than-10-percentage decrease in the broad demand for this wireless 5G connectivity ceteris paribus. Several fundamental factors help explain this excess growth in the U.S. telecom industry, and these fundamental factors can be quite sensitive to changes in the broader macro economic outlook (e.g. pre-pay to post-pay migrations, early adoption of wireless access plans by both older and younger cohorts, more business wireless access plans for a greater fraction of their worker bases, macro headcount reductions, and so forth). As macroeconomic conditions soften, especially when the FOMC starts gradual interest rate cuts later from 2024 to 2026, high broadband subscriber growth may moderate more quickly (somewhat closer to the U.S. population growth).

We characterize the current U.S. macro economic environment with relatively high inflation and interest rates, and the potential U.S. unemployment rate is likely to rise in the next few years. Against this macro backdrop, we would expect to see further reductions in the number of employees with corporate phones, significantly lower broadband budgets for businesses (especially small-to-medium enterprises), tighter household budgets for broadband services, and reverse pre-pay to post-pay migrations (as some consumers might be caught off guard by macro economic headwinds and therefore might prefer to return to lower-cost broadband budgets). We dig deeper into the macro market share trends among the U.S. telecom titans AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

As of early-2024, T-Mobile impressively adds more than 900,000 new post-pay smartphone subscribers each quarter, and the phone churn rate declines only 18 basis points to 0.92%. Importantly, we now expect T-Mobile to be the only one of the 3 major U.S. wireless telecom titans to consistently increase smartphone subscriber additions with lower churn. In light of these fundamental factors, we estimate that T-Mobile continues to be the only Big 3 carrier to garner market share gains in the next few years. In equilibrium, T-Mobile can capture well more than 30% of U.S. smartphone subscribers despite intense competition from AT&T and Verizon.

AT&T is likely to experience a great moderation in post-pay smartphone subscriber additions to 650,000 each quarter, due to both medium-term iPhone shortages and more competitive pricing plans from T-Mobile and Verizon. However, we expect AT&T to successfully defend its long-run equilibrium 27% market share of U.S. post-pay smartphone subscribers through both better customer retention and lower churn. This competitive equilibrium better balances the relative market shares of the 3 major U.S. telecom titans AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

Verizon is likely to experience some further market share losses as many subscribers switch to more attractive pricing plans from AT&T and T-Mobile. For Verizon specifically, the current market share tends to gradually decrease from 39% to 35% in recent years. In the long-term competitive equilibrium, we expect the U.S. telecom market shares to sequentially equalize across AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile over the next decade. As AI analytic technology helps optimize efficient network management, each of the 3 major U.S. telecom titans can benefit from this technology to enhance end user experiences across the complete spectrum of 5G wireless connectivity in due course. For this fundamental reason, we expect this competitive advantage to become the new normal steady state for the 3 major U.S. telecom titans AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

 

Given its current stock market valuation, T-Mobile seems quite attractive as its medium-term subscriber growth has yet to manifest in the top-line and bottom-line results.

We believe T-Mobile sustains the best EBITDA and FCF growth outlook in the medium-term across the U.S. telecom industry. T-Mobile’s value drivers include strong subscriber growth, high average revenue per unit (ARPU), merger synergies with Sprint, and lower subsequent capital expenditures. T-Mobile is now in the early stages of disgorging cash to shareholders through aggressive but sporadic share repurchases of $60 billion over the next few years. This robust equity model enhances T-Mobile’s subsequent subscriber growth with moderate financial flexibility and reasonably low leverage. We can expect T-Mobile to grow into slightly lower temporary stock market valuation in terms of both P/E and P/B multiples. On the basis of our chosen metric for telecom stock market valuation, the free cash flow (FCF) yield with no financial leverage, T-Mobile is only about one year behind AT&T and Verizon and hence trades at 7.6% per annum, vis-à-vis 7.8% for AT&T and 7.9% for Verizon respectively.

With T-Mobile’s recent announcement of strong subscriber growth in recent years, we can expect to see a fair dose of conservatism in the next few annual top-to-bottom-line updates in the wider context of economic policy uncertainty. This economic policy uncertainty arises from stubbornly high inflation and interest rates, in addition to a likely reasonable rise in U.S. unemployment due to AI technological replacement. In light of these fundamental prospects, we can expect to see a great moderation in subscriber growth across the entire U.S. telecom industry. For this reason, T-Mobile’s next broadband additions are likely to gradually plateau as the U.S. telecom industry normalizes toward the new steady state of long-run competitive equilibrium. Against this macro backdrop, we can expect $27 billion to $30 billion in EBITDA and $13 billion to $15 billion in FCF for T-Mobile in the next few years.

We believe T-Mobile’s business continues to be reasonably robust and resilient in the broad cyclical macro environment in the next few years, especially as the FOMC may start dovish interest rate cuts in response to global supply-chain shocks, shortages, and bottlenecks and more difficult trade-offs between U.S. inflation and employment from 2024 to 2030. T-Mobile provides 5G broadband services as a consumer staple, and its new pricing plans are usually more competitive than the pricing plans from AT&T and Verizon. T-Mobile further insulates itself from many of the retail price pressures due to disinflation. This recent development is particularly fortuitous for T-Mobile through the previous Sprint merger integration. In light of all of these fundamental prospects, we believe T-Mobile sustains the best EBITDA and FCF growth outlook in the medium-term across the U.S. telecom industry.

However, there is still some risk for T-Mobile investors that the company may inadvertently rotate into substantially more cyclical sectors (such as cyclical tech stocks and growth stocks) in the next macro cycle of output growth, inflation, and interest rates. Even if this hypothetical scenario eventually materializes over the next decade, we believe T-Mobile’s robust top-line and bottom-line growth helps avoid massive drawdowns as the company navigates through stock return fluctuations in the next macro cycle. Overall, we expect to see AI technology as the mainstream competitive advantage for the 3 U.S. telecom titans T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T. In long-run competitive equilibrium, the new normal steady state helps equalize U.S. telecom market shares across these major service providers across the full spectrum of 5G broadband services.

 

AT&T lacks the substantially higher subscriber growth expectations of T-Mobile, but has no or few structural market challenges that Verizon faces in the next decade.

AT&T is the tweener of the telecom titans: the company lacks the higher subscriber growth outlook for T-Mobile, but also, has virtually no or few structural market share challenges that Verizon now faces in the next decade. On the basis of our preferable valuation metric, the FCF yield with no financial leverage, we estimate AT&T’s stock market valuation to be in the reasonable range of 7.7% to 7.8%. Over the medium term, we expect AT&T’s FCF yield with no financial leverage to converge toward 8%. In support of these estimates, we expect solid operational performance for AT&T to continue in both the mobile cloud and fiber broadband businesses. In line with our estimates for T-Mobile and Verizon, AT&T’s broadband additions may likely experience a great moderation over the next few quarters, due to a substantially smaller economic pie for the U.S. telecom titans, higher non-pay churn, and cyclical supply-chain uncertainty. On balance, we can expect AT&T’s mobile and fiber broadband services to contribute to higher ARPU and sales growth, partially offset by declines in legacy business and consumer wireless services. In light of economic policy uncertainty, we scale down the FCF forecast to $18 billion, instead of the previous FCF guidance of $20 billion, but still well above the current $16 billion Bloomberg consensus forecast.

 

Verizon now faces intense competition from AT&T, T-Mobile, and many other smaller share-takers in the U.S. telecom industry.

In the meantime, Verizon has yet to rise to the challenge of generating long-term sustainable subscriber additions from quarter to quarter, especially in 5G-connective mobile broadband services. We view this challenge as a structural one because Verizon now takes the highest market share with about 39% of U.S. post-pay phone subscriptions. At the same time, both AT&T and T-Mobile now continue to significantly improve their AI network management and operational performance. Also, the cable operators Comcast, Altice, and Charter attempt to ramp up their subscriber acquisition to almost 12% of U.S. broadband additions each quarter. Although Verizon senior leadership has not been any less effective in managing the broad-band business, Verizon needs to confront increasingly intense competition from AT&T and T-Mobile-Sprint and the smaller rivals in the U.S. telecom sector. The AI-driven competitive advantage continues to equalize market shares across the 3 major U.S. telecom titans. For this reason, we expect to see dramatic declines in the U.S. telecom market share for Verizon in the next decade. Against the same macro backdrop of high inflation and interest rates for AT&T and T-Mobile, Verizon faces its own unique business-versus-consumer customer mix, in addition to slower demands for 5G mobile edge services and higher cash taxes.

In light of these fundamental prospects, we forecast $19 billion to $24 billion in FCF and $47 billion to $51 billion in EBITDA for Verizon in the next few quarters. This sectoral fundamental analysis leads to a 7.9% FCF yield with no financial leverage for Verizon, in comparison to 7.6% for T-Mobile and 7.8% for AT&T respectively. Below the 8% FCF yield yardstick, these fundamentally robust FCF yields serve as reasonable and conservative estimates for the 3 major U.S. telecom titans.

 

Comcast seems a cost-effective way for stock market investors to own cable.

In recent times, Comcast has announced its cable network upgrade plans for the time period from 2024 to 2027. Over the same time window, we expect to see no or minimal increase in Comcast’s current 11% capital expenditures as a fraction of total sales. However, if Comcast ends up with substantial participation in the Broadband Equity and Deployment (BEAD) and other U.S. government subsidy programs, Comcast’s cable capital expenditures would likely rise beyond the baseline forecast in the medium to longer run.

In terms of stock market valuation, Comcast now trades at a 7.2% FCF yield with no leverage, 6.5 times EBITDA, and a broad P/E range of 11 to 12.5. This attractive valuation shows that Comcast seems a cost-effective way for stock market investors own U.S. cable. We further expect Comcast to experience at least 6% FCF yield growth per annum from 2024 to 2027. Since its complex acquisition of NBC Universal Media in late-2009, Comcast has been able to sustain this 6% FCF yield growth. Within NBC Universal Media, the current segmentation of theme parks makes Comcast’s true TV and film media exposure seem much larger than it really is in recent years. For this reason, we scale this asset down to almost 8% of EBITDA for Comcast. We expect Comcast’s broadband video asset. Sky, to comprise another 7% of EBITDA. As a result, Comcast’s cable and theme parks represent at least 85% of EBITDA. If Comcast makes theme parks a standalone asset out of NBC Universal Media, we believe Comcast’s media exposure would become less of a concern for stock market investors.

In recent years, Comcast’s cable video-streaming services lose money, but these losses are likely to plateau to eventually break even. Beyond break-even, Comcast may be able to view these cable video-streaming services as an additional EBITDA growth driver in the next few years. Even though the linear TV business faces apparent secular challenges, in addition to some cyclical pressures in the short run, we believe Comcast should be able to strategically cut costs in linear TV and Peacock to ultimately add new profits to EBITDA.

Comcast sustains a fortress balance sheet in a unique macro environment with slower cable growth. Total debt now represents 2.5 times EBITDA. This low debt coverage gives Comcast less default risk, greater financial flexibility, and greater strategic optionality. When Comcast successfully takes over the strong sports content WWE from Fox, Comcast can strategically better distribute the resultant WWE content across the linear TV and cable video-streaming services and theme parks. Nevertheless, Comcast management reiterates that the company would not reduce the current cable exposure. Comcast would likely not acquire another large media asset in the next few years.

 

Charter now seems much more expensive than Comcast if stock market investors still want to own cable in the U.S. telecom industry.

Charter’s new capital expenditures would likely weigh on FCF in the next few years. We can expect Charter to experience substantially lower FCF by at least 32% to 35%, down to $4.5 billion. This lower FCF seems to persist from 2024 to 2027. In comparison to Comcast and other cable service providers, Charter now trades at a richer stock market valuation in terms of both P/E and P/B ratios, due to Charter’s more aggressive U.S. cable footprint expansion plans and significantly more incremental capital expenditures for network upgrades. We can expect Charter to trade at a 4.9% FCF yield with no financial leverage and 7.3 times EBITDA. In this light, Charter seems to be the most expensive U.S. cable TV operator, well ahead of Comcast and Altice. Even though Charter has long been the U.S. cable stock with the higher P/E and P/B multiples due to Charter’s aggressive share buyback and cable footprint growth, we prefer a more conservative approach to stock market valuation and financial leverage at this stage. In the wider macro environment with much slower sector growth and high inflation and interest rates, most U.S. cable TV operators face substantially higher capital investment requirements for smooth network upgrades. In line with the prior FCF guidance, we expect Charter to maintain the net ratio of total debt to EBITDA at the high end of the broader range of 4.0 to 4.5 target leverage multiples. In light of the fundamental prospects, we expect these FCF and target leverage estimates for Charter to persist in the next few years.

 

At Altice, the new CEO may reshape the next capital spending boom over the next decade.

Given the additional pressures on FCF guidance from relatively higher capital expenditures, cash taxes, and cash interest payments, Altice is likely to experience further decreases in sales revenue and EBITDA. The broader competitive macro environment continues to weigh on broadband additions and cable TV pricing plans. In addition, cyclical pressures continue to weigh on Altice’s cable TV advertisements, business services sales revenue, and EBITDA. These fundamental prospects translate into 4% to 6% declines in Altice’s sales revenue and EBITDA in the next few years. Altice’s FCF would likely land in the broad range of $70 million to $142 million. It would not be a big surprise for Altice management to further curtail capital expenditures in order to improve the FCF margin.

Over the next decade, we can expect Altice to reduce target leverage from 6.7 times EBITDA to the more reasonable range of 4.0 to 4.5 times. In this context, Altice trades at a 4.1% FCF yield with no financial leverage and 7.4 times EBITDA. Common equity now comprises only 9% to 11% of Altice’s enterprise value, there is virtually no or little room left for P/E and P/B multiple compression, although this multiple compression may still drive significant downside to Altice’s stock return performance.

Altice’s new CEO, Dennis Mathew, now attempts to conduct a complete operational review. Any significant business turnaround, reduction in capital investment plans, or other positive developments may make the Altice stock a top performer across the U.S. cable industry. In this optimistic view, Altice now faces a rich and favorable stock market valuation, especially when the new CEO seeks to reshape the next capital spending boom in the next few years.

 

DISH delivers a brighter growth outlook for U.S. satellite TV subscribers.

DISH’s recent $2 billion spectrum bond issuance should ensure that the company now has sufficient capital to meet the 70%+ FCC network coverage requirement within a reasonable time frame. At a more practical level, we believe DISH should raise more capital preferably soon in order to have more liquidity and financial flexibility by way of a larger cash balance. DISH can perhaps issue another $1 billion under the current spectrum bond indenture, and the resultant bonds tend to trade above the issue price at par value. A potential merger with the CONX SPAC would represent additional options for DISH capital issuance.

DISH continues to make progress on the 5G network buildout. The current progress seems sufficient for DISH to meet the 70% FCC network coverage requirement, because the extant network includes 10,000 cell sites and DISH now adds about 1,000 net cell sites per month. This milestone indicates that DISH is well ahead of schedule relative to the 15,000 cell sites as part of the 70% FCC network coverage requirement.

For DISH stock market valuation, the 5G enterprise revenue model continues to be a major corporate hurdle. The recent resignation of Stephen Bye, who had been leading DISH’s core enterprise businesses, can prove to be a nagging concern for stock market investors. DISH management reiterates confidence that sales momentum continues to build up over the next few years. In addition, DISH management expects to win new major contracts and ventures, which may start to ramp up in the next few quarters. In this positive light, DISH management predicts the long-term competitive equilibrium of at least 40 million subscribers for DISH. A potential merger with TPG can add new synergies to this long-term milestone for DISH.

DISH’s current enterprise value of $29 billion is less than the $30 billion cost basis of its own current spectrum licenses. For these spectrum licenses, DISH only pays an average cost of $0.66 per MHz-POP. This cost seems to be far below the fair market value. If DISH’s 5GE business model does develop in accordance with the current DISH management plan, there should be significant upside to DISH’s stock market valuation on a fundamental basis. The DISH 5GE and retail wireless businesses are worth $28 billion and $6.5 billion respectively. Further, the DBS business is worth at least $13 billion. If we assume DISH’s target leverage to remain the same in the next few years, we expect to value DISH’s common stock at $55. This stock market valuation accords with an implicit 6% to 7% FCF yield with no leverage.

 

This analytic essay cannot constitute any form of financial advice, analyst opinion, recommendation, or endorsement. We refrain from engaging in financial advisory services, and we seek to offer our analytic insights into the latest economic trends, stock market topics, investment memes, personal finance tools, and other self-help inspirations. Our proprietary alpha investment algorithmic system helps enrich our AYA fintech network platform as a new social community for stock market investors: https://ayafintech.network.

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